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24 Oct 2024
First Take: Travis Perkins - Warning on Merchanting problems

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First Take: Travis Perkins - Warning on Merchanting problems
Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON) | 532 63.8 2.3% | Mkt Cap: 1,129m
- Published:
24 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Aynsley Lammin -
Pages:
4 -
Our view
Another disappointing update makes it clear that there are serious ongoing structural problems in Merchanting which need fixing. It is good to see honest and candid comments addressing this from the new CEO. The loss of market share in Merchanting in Q3 results in a profit warning, with full year consensus adj.operating profit set to be cut by c.10%. As some green shoots of market recovery are increasingly evident, the key issue for the Group is how quickly and successfully the new CEO can deliver a better operational performance in Merchanting, with a financial benefit from H2 2025 looking the earliest opportunity.
Q3 update – Another profit warning
A poor trading update from Travis, cutting profit guidance again for the full year. Group revenue declined by 5.7% in Q3 with LFL revenue down by 6.8% in Q3 and by 5.6% YTD. Merchanting was much weaker than we expected. Merchanting LFL sales were down by 8.2% in Q3, with volume down by 7.4% as the Group lost market share over the summer; volumes and margins were weaker than expected despite efforts to optimize pricing strategy, and Specialist Merchanting saw competitive markets. Toolstation was more robust with LFL growth of 1% in Q3 and total revenue up by 1.7%, Toolstation UK was up by 2.7%. Toolstation France remains on track for full closure by the end of 2024.
Given the shortfall in Merchanting, full year adjusted operating profit is now expected to be around £135m, (previous guidance was £150m). Overall, key end markets are stabilizing with some very early signs of recovery and positive growth expected over the next 12 months but the benefit to financial performance not expected until H2 2025.
The new CEO, Pete Redfern, notes the Group has many strengths, but has allowed itself to become distracted and overly internally-focused, which has led to underperformance in recent periods and it needs to get back to operational focus. His immediate priorities are driving and incentivising branch-led performance. He will also take on the role of MD of the Travis Perkins General Merchant business to shorten reporting lines and develop a new strategy.
Valuation
Shares are up by 12% YTD and, pre-review, reside on FY25E PE and EBITDA multiples of c.16x and c.7x respectively.