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05 Mar 2024
Travis Perkins : Focussing on recovery potential - Buy

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Travis Perkins : Focussing on recovery potential - Buy
Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON) | 614 70.6 1.9% | Mkt Cap: 1,304m
- Published:
05 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Aynsley Lammin | Lewis Roxburgh -
Pages:
11 -
Our view. Against a weak trading backdrop, the Group is intensifying its focus on transforming its operating model. It had already announced cost savings of £35m and is now taking a more fundamental look at underperforming businesses within the Group, with more emphasis on operational efficiencies generally. We cut our estimates significantly for FY24E, but the key issue for the business case remains what the medium term recovery potential and delivery looks like. We remain convinced by Toolstation UK and do not see why, with market recovery, Merchanting cannot reach margins of close to 8%. With more operational focus, and with an exit from France looking inevitable, we believe the medium-term potential value is attractive, with EPS of over 120p possible over the medium term. We reiterate our BUY.
Results summary. The results were in line, with adj. operating profit of £180m. It has announced that it is addressing some poorly performing parts of the Group, including a potential exit of Toolstation France, a strategic review of Toolstation Benelux and its Benchmarx business, as well as intensifying its focus on operational efficiencies. The expected changes to the business model should structurally improve Group profitability, returns and growth. DPS was cut to 18p (-54%).
Estimate cut. We cut our adjusted operating profit estimates for FY24E and FY25E to £170m and £228m respectively. We expect net debt of £250m by end-FY24E implying leverage (IFRS16) of 2.4 times. Clearly if, as we expect, the Group exits France, continuing operating profits would increase by £20m.
Valuation. FY24E EV:Sales multiple of c.0.5 times.