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01 Apr 2025
Travis Perkins : Focussing on significant near-term challenges - Buy

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Travis Perkins : Focussing on significant near-term challenges - Buy
Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON) | 614 70.6 1.9% | Mkt Cap: 1,304m
- Published:
01 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Aynsley Lammin -
Pages:
12 -
Our view. The shares have hit a fifteen year low on the back of the delayed FY24 results. We cut our estimates to reflect the weak FY25 guidance, with little growth now expected in Merchanting turnover, and margins under pressure from higher costs in a difficult market. The FY24 results were in line with expectations, albeit with net debt lower than expected. There is clearly substantial potential upside in profits over the medium term. The key issue from here will be how quickly the operational improvements show up in market share gains and better margins. Appointing a CEO will be important in order to provide clarity and momentum to the strategic direction. This year we expect net debt to reduce further, but it looks like another difficult year for earnings. We maintain a BUY rating, given the potential value, on the belief that the Group will continue to re-focus its strategy to outperform in what should be a better market over the medium term.
Results summary. The delayed FY24 results were as expected, with adjusted Group operating profit of £141m (-23%). Revenue decreased by 4.7% to £4,607m due to weak volumes and price deflation, particularly in Merchanting where profits fell by 30%. Toolstation reported a robust adjusted UK profit increase of 47.8%. Adjusted EPS fell by 32.7% to 36.6p and DPS was cut by 19.4% to 14.5p. The IFRS16 leverage ratio improved to 2.5x, with net debt before leases reducing to be better than expected.
Estimates. Looking ahead, the Board anticipates another challenging year in FY25 - expecting adjusted operating profit to remain broadly in line with FY24 levels - and we cut our estimates to reflect the new guidance.
Valuation. The shares trade on FY25E PE and EV/EBITDA multiples of c.15x and c.6x respectively and an EV:Sales multiple of only c.0.4 times.