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01 Aug 2023
Travis Perkins : Full year profit expectation unchanged - Buy

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Travis Perkins : Full year profit expectation unchanged - Buy
Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON) | 532 63.8 2.3% | Mkt Cap: 1,129m
- Published:
01 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Aynsley Lammin | Lewis Roxburgh -
Pages:
11 -
Our view. Trading continues to be difficult, but management’s full year profit guidance is unchanged, and we keep our estimates broadly unchanged. Arguably the real focus is now on trading in 2024 with macro risks to volume from high interest rates pushing the economy into recession and price inflation being less of a tailwind for the Group. However, assuming UK inflation fears and interest rate expectations continue to ease, flattish market volumes next year for merchanting looks a reasonable view and profit recovery in Toolstation should be supportive for the shares given the undemanding valuation. Hopefully the Toolstation CMD in September will provide more confidence in profit recovery for that business and over the next few months inflation fears continue to ease. We maintain our BUY rating with a price target of 975p (prev. 940p).
Results summary. A broadly in-line set of H1 results, with no change to the full-year profit guidance. H1 revenue was down by 2.5% (LFL -3.2%) to c.£2,472m, with adjusted operating profit of £112m (-31%). Merchanting saw adjusted profit fall by 23.5% to £130m. Toolstation saw revenue up by 9%, but delivered an operating loss of £10m (UK profit of £9m), which included a bigger-than-expected c.£19m loss in Europe. Adjusted EPS fell by 41% to 30.5p and the DPS was held at 12.5p. Pre-IFRS16 Net Debt was as expected, at £274m.
Outlook and estimates. As previously guided, full year adjusted operating profit is expected to be around £240m. We only tweak our forecasts. We expect a slightly bigger loss in Toolstation and lower price inflation, but slightly better volume in Merchanting for the full year; overall, our operating profit forecast remains in line with the guidance of c.£240m. IFRS16 leverage c.2x for FY23E.
Valuation. Shares reside on a FY24E PE multiple of only c.11x, but the real value in the shares continues to be looking out to the medium term.