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24 May 2024
Travis Perkins : Likely helpful positive catalysts in H2 - Buy

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Travis Perkins : Likely helpful positive catalysts in H2 - Buy
Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON) | 614 70.6 1.9% | Mkt Cap: 1,304m
- Published:
24 May 2024 -
Author:
Aynsley Lammin | Lewis Roxburgh -
Pages:
9 -
Our view. We revisit our valuation after the latest bounce in sector share prices. While the trading backdrop in 2024 continues to look subdued, and we expect little volume benefit this year, we continue to see significant medium-term potential share price upside. With a general expectation of UK interest cuts this summer, there is arguably more visibility that we are at, or close to, the trough for UK residential markets. The Group is intensifying its focus on transforming its operating model. It had already announced cost savings of £35m and is now taking a more fundamental look at underperforming businesses within the Group, with more emphasis on operational efficiencies generally. We remain convinced by Toolstation UK and significant profit recovery potential in Merchanting, likely to be underpinned by more focus on efficiencies. With more operational focus, and with an exit from France looking inevitable, we believe the medium-term potential value is attractive, with EPS of over 120p possible over the medium-term. We reiterate our BUY and adjust our price target higher to 930p (from 810p) to reflect our confidence in the medium-term potential.
Estimates. The Q1 update confirmed that trading remained difficult, and we continue to expect operating profit estimates for FY24E and FY25E of £170m and £228m, respectively. We expect net debt of £250m by end-FY24E implying leverage (IFRS16) of 2.4 times. If the Group exits France, as we expect, continuing operating profits would increase by £20m.