Our view. The group reports on Q1 trading on 25th April. We expect the Group to have enjoyed strong price inflation in Q1, but volumes are expected to be significantly weaker, due to weaker new housing and because the comparative for Merchanting only starts to ease later this year. Good price inflation during the first part of this year combined with cost savings and an easing comparative as the year progresses should continue to support the Group’s full year profit guidance provided at the time of its full year results in late February. The shares have recently pulled back from their February high and, while near term trading will continue to be a focus, we see the medium-term outlook and strategic delivery as being the more relevant issue for the share price and medium-term valuation potential. Looking out to the medium-term, we continue to see the Group as being well placed to benefit from positive cyclical and structural drivers. Recent data points and Q1 expectations. Recent UK construction data show a good bounce back in February, with RM&I work relatively strong and materials price inflation continuing to run at high rates. However, the recent PMI reading suggests March trading slowed from a strong February. Overall, we expect strong high single-digit percentage price inflation but weak volumes in Q1, with new housing activity particularly weak. We expect a Q1 performance broadly consistent the Group’s full year profit guidance. We expect Group LFL sales to be down by c.1% in Q1 with Toolstation up by c.5% and Merchanting down by c.2%. We tweak our FY23E underlying profit (inc. property profit) to c.£271m. Valuation. Shares have lagged the sector average YTD, up by only 7%. They reside on a FY23E PE multiple of c.11.5x, but the real value in the shares is looking out to the medium term with the expected benefit from a more mature Toolstation and with Merchanting performing well.