The Promised Land

Red Dwarf, the very British sci-fi comedy franchise, ran for 11 seasons – most recently in 2017; and The Promised Land is a feature-length TV movie – out this year. Yes, the programme is an acquired taste. Strangely, too, many episodes are impacted by a virus or three (physiological, not main-frame).

Forecasts unchanged

Despite the disposal of 229 PRS units, we retain our FY estimates as the sales were already reflected in forecasts. It does, however, highlight the underlying attractiveness of Dublin as an investor market – this is Cairn’s 4 th PRS disposal, and Cairn’s 2 nd to Carysfort Capital. The stock trades on 1.3x price to book which implies 23% upside. We would further argue that the book value underrepresents the true asset value.

UK Housebuilding Sector: 2020 vision: Sharpness and clarity for industry prospects

For fighter pilots, it is a minimum requirement. But having 20/20 ‘visual acuity’ (correct term) does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision (as convention assumes); instead, it indicates sharpness and clarity of vision at a distance. It is measured by a Snellen Chart, which displays letters of progressively smaller size and whereby 20/20 means that the test subject sees the same line of letters at 20 feet that a person with normal vision sees at 20 feet (or 6 metres; but 6/6 simply didn’t

Securing cash income and land

Cairn announced two deals yesterday; the phased disposal of 150 PRS units at Mariavilla, and the purchase of 97 acres of land adjacent to its existing 174 acre land bank at Clonburris. Although these deals should have no material impact on capital return plans, they should both serve to underpin the long term aim of returning surplus cash to shareholders considering the c10 year land bank has just been extended by c2 years. We retain our €1.60 target price.

Turning point reached

Having previously raised all the capital required to invest in its land bank, Cairn Homes has now passed a significant mile-stone; paying its first dividend, and, commencing a share buy-back. It is now expected that both of these features will repeat regularly, given the anticipated cash flows. Furthermore, the very long landbank implies a c5year land buying holiday further supporting cash flow. We raise our price target to €1.60 price target which implies 36% upside.

UK Housebuilding Sector in 3Q 2019: ‘And then there were 17’

Dame Agatha Christie (née Miller) published more than 80 books and plays; and the Guinness Book of World Records lists her as the best-selling novelist of all time with roughly two billion copies sold. ‘And then there were none’ was originally published in 1939, with an un-politically correct title; and it is still the world’s best-selling mystery (with more than 100 million sold). It is also number six on the list of best-selling books of all-time.

First dividend and initial share buy-back

Cairn Homes hits a point of maturity with these results; trading is good and the land bank is long (c15 years), but in addition, it is announcing its inaugural and progressive biannual dividend payment, and embarking on a €25m share buy-back plan. We retain our buy rating and set a Target Price of 160€c.

UK Housebuilding Sector in 1Q 2019

Y2K is a numeronym and was the common abbreviation for the year 2000 software problem; and, for the benefit of millennial readers, the abbreviation combines the letter ‘Y’ for year and ‘K’ for the SI unit prefix kilo, meaning 1000. Hence, 2K signifies 2000.

Small Cap Feast

Circassia Pharma (CIR.L) - specialty pharmaceutical company focused on respiratory disease transferring from the Main Market. No funds being raised. Due 4 Feb. Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected late January 2019. Chaarat Gold Holdings—RTO, the Company intends to acquire Kapan Mining and Processing CJSC, which owns the Shahumyan medium-sized

UK Housebuilding Sector

This ominous-sounding term originated from the work of famed Swedish meteorologist, Tor Bergeron (1897-1977), but it only entered popular vernacular this year – and there have been ample opportunities in 2018 to use it.

UK Housebuilding Sector in 2017

e il futuro

PROGRESSIVE: Watkin Jones: H1 in-line amid reviving investor appetite

Watkin Jones’s guidance for FY24E is unchanged in its trading update for the first half to 31 March. We maintain our forecasts for the full year and introduce half-year estimates, in line with reiterated guidance that performance will be significantly H2 weighted. The group confirms a continuing gradual recovery in appetite among institutional investors to forward fund its build-to-rent (BTR) and student developments. We believe this should gather pace as the direction of interest rates becomes

Ceres Power Holdings - Strategic partnerships powering growth

Ceres Power Holdings’ innovative technology uses electrolysis to produce green hydrogen and solid oxide fuel cells to generate power. In a year where it moved to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, it recorded revenue growth of 13% and gross margin expansion to 61% (the highest in the sector, according to management), but is yet to record an operating profit (FY23 operating loss of £59.4m versus £54.0m in FY22). Ceres continued its strategy to drive innovation and technology across sol

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth drivers show their value in challenging trading conditions

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) has announced its FY24 full-year results, which are in line with the headline figures from its February trading update. A record year for Licensing and a strong performance in the key North America market helped to offset a challenging consumer environment in other geographies, most notably the UK. While this backdrop is set to persist in FY25E, the group will continue to focus on its strategic growth drivers, notably North America and Licensing, to deliver sharehold

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 25 April 2024

25th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: Smart Metering Systems (SMS.L) has delisted from the AIM market What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

Surface Transforms - Fund raise for the profitable growth phase

SCE is raising £16m through a placing (and up to a further £3m through open offer) to fund substantial expansion and additional working capital. This will enable the Group to grow to £75m revenue capacity in the near term, commence the build and equipping of a new factory and then (with internally generated free cash flow) scale to £150m revenue capacity and beyond. With a contracted order book of £190m and a prospective pipeline of £400m, this is clearly the time to seize the opportunity. The e

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Solid State - Anticipating record adjusted PBT in FY24

Solid State’s trading update affirms the sustained strength in demand throughout H224, resulting in record FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT ahead of prior consensus of £155m and £12.5m, respectively. This is attributable to the earlier-than-expected delivery of a NATO contract. As a result, consensus FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT estimates have been raised by c 6% and c 20%, with respective FY25 estimates declining commensurately.

Zeus: Video Games Sector Quarterly review - January 2024

Subsector price performance: In the fourth quarter to 29 December 2023 all but the AAA publishers and platform subsector saw share price declines. The UK PC and Console focused subsector was again the worst performing subsector (-26.2%) over the quarter and LTM (-70.1%).

Time to focus on growth ambitions

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 2024

Banquet Buffet*** Abingdon Health 9.25p £11.3m (ABDX.L) The lateral flow contract development and manufacturing organisation announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2023. Revenue increased 117% to £2.4m (H1 2023: £1.1m). The Adjusted EBITDA loss decreased 47% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.2m). Furthermore, reduction in operating loss of 50% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.4m). The Board therefore expects that H2 2024 revenue will be significantly improved compared with H1 2024

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - First modular ammonia cracker system

AFC has unveiled a groundbreaking modular ammonia cracker system demonstrating viable and scaleable production of hydrogen in the UK using this method. The cracker system is designed to deliver 140 tonnes of fuel cell grade hydrogen each year. Hydrogen from the plant will initially be targeted for sale into AFC’s UK H-Power Generator deployments, including those with Speedy Hydrogen Solutions. Along with the recent purchase of the mobile storage and distribution assets of Octopus Hydrogen, AFC c

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Delivering to strategy against an unhelpful global backdrop

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) continues to deliver on its key strategic initiatives and growth drivers despite a challenging global backdrop. The group’s FY23 performance showed flat revenue, with adjusted underlying PBT rising £0.1m to £12.6m. Net cash dropped back to £15.4m, with the total dividend maintained at 3.5p. The star performers were Licensing (reported revenue +25%), the Morris & Co brand (+16%) and the US market (+20%). Our forecast revisions assume more modest sales progression, wit

Morning Note – 4 April 2024