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30 Apr 2025
1Q25 production first take - light on copper volumes

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1Q25 production first take - light on copper volumes
Glencore plc (GLEN:LON) | 358 -3 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 42,417m
- Published:
30 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
The -30% y/y decline in copper production in 1Q25 reflected multiple headwinds across multiple mines. While buyside expectations were below the sellside''s (-18% miss vs company compiled consensus) this result also likely trailed GLEN''s internal expectations, in our opinion. There is no call associated with the production results release. GLEN will report 2Q25 production on 30 July.
BNPP Exane View:
1Q25 copper production of 168kt was an -18% miss vs both company compiled and Bloomberg consensus. It was also a -30% y/y decline with lower mining rates, grades and recoveries at multiple assets. Buyside expectations were below sellside''s going into the print. We believe this result likely came in below GLEN''s internal expectations as they previously expected a 45/55 H1/H2 split in copper production which has now been adjusted to 42/58.
Production from zinc, nickel and ferrochrome all missed expectations by mid-single digit % on average. Conversely, cobalt was +4% ahead of expectations.
Cobalt produced at KCC and Mutanda are being stockpiled in country and will be sold once the export ban is removed.
Coal volumes were slightly ahead of expectations with thermal coal +1% and coking coal +4% vs company compiled consensus.
2025 production guidance remains unchanged except for a c5% reduction in energy coal which reflects the previously announced reduction of volumes at Cerrejon.
Guidance for Marketing''s adjusted EBIT is around the middle of the long-term USD 2.2-3.2bn per annum range (Bloomberg consensus USD 3.1bn). Speaking on tariffs, the report notes that primary commodity trade routes to date have not been meaningfully disrupted. However, the proposed tariffs are expected to create some dislocation and physical trade flow re-orientation, which could present opportunities for the Marketing business.