A bad combination of an EBITDA miss, consensus expectations which were too high on shareholder returns and production downgrades (vs consensus) on 2025/2026. A presentation will be held at 10am UK time to discuss the results. PandL miss GLEN reported 2H23 adjusted EBITDA of USD7.7bn, -5% vs consensus. At the divisional level, the miss was across the board aside from coal and oil. Marketing EBIT was slightly below expectations (-5%) and recent guidance. The 2024 USD0.13/sh shareholder return, based on 2023 cash flows, is ahead of our expectation of USD0.11/sh but well below consensus showing at USD0.18/sh. 2024 Marketing adjusted EBIT guidance of USD3.0bn is -13% vs consensus of USD3.5bn. 2025/2026 production guidance weak GLEN provided updated 2025 and 2026 production guidance (2024 already known). There are implied cuts vs consensus in copper (average -5%), nickel (average -15%) and ferrochrome (average -12%) with upgrades for cobalt (average +17%) and zinc (average +11%). We would expect the focus on copper/nickel/ferrochrome to outweigh cobalt/zinc. 2024-2026 capex guidance of USD5.7bn per annum, excluding USD400m over 3 years for Mara and El Pachon feasibility studies, is in-line for 2024 but +2% and +10% above consensus for 2025 and 2026. Cash costs across its main commodities will be coming down y/y in 2024 but there is no particularly robust cons for this. Outlook commentary Rate cuts and restocking along the supply chain are expected to bring an improvement in western market demand later in 2024. Glencore expects a strong recovery in demand, particularly copper, from the cyclical trough as supply constraints and energy transition demand has prevented large inventory increases.