What happened? A lot to get through this morning with Glencore. Two items have been worse than consensus, as feared by investors in our recent conversations, the capex guide and copper production guidance. 2025 marketing EBIT guide looks in-line to us. The total shareholder returns was front-loaded (relative to expectations) by the Viterra transaction proceeds and underlying is probably slightly underwhelming vs expectations. Glencore will host a call at 8:30am UK time to discuss the results. BNPP Exane View: Glencore reported 2H24 adjusted EBITDA of 8.0bn, -3% vs Visible Alpha consensus. The miss was primarily driven by Copper with the Coal division in-line. Marketing''s adjusted EBITDA of USD 2.0bn was slightly ahead (+5%) vs consensus. Net debt of USD 11.2bn was +36% above consensus. Shareholder returns of USD 2.2bn were announced (inclusive of USD 1bn buyback) or USD 0.182/sh vs consensus of USD 0.13/sh and BNPPE of USD 0.17/sh. The buyback does include the anticipation of the cash component of the Viterra sale to Bunge which we, and we believe the street, had removed from expectations. We would view the higher-than-expect returns announcement today more as a timing impact having pulled forward those proceeds rather than the total amount actually being better than expected. 2025 copper production guidance of 850-910kt is -7% vs consensus and probably meeting recent investor fears that the guide would come in light. 2026 of 930kt is -3% vs consensus. The longer-term 2028 guide of returning to 1.0Mt is better than expected though (consensus 950kt). Guidance for 2025 marketing EBIT of USD 3.0bn and in-line with BNPPEe and consensus at USD 3.0bn. Guidance for 2025 capex is USD6.6bn vs BNPPEe of USD 6.4bn and consensus of USD 6.0bn, inclusive of USD 1.4bn per annum of capex earmarked for EVR (vs the 2H24 spend of USD 0.5bn). Consensus capex estimates looking too low were a point of our recent discussions with investors.