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  • 30 Jul 2024

2Q24 production miss but guidance unchanged; copper/zinc unit cost up; coal demerger decision next week


Glencore plc (GLEN:LON) | 357 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 42,257m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS

    • 10 pages


 

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2Q24 production miss but guidance unchanged; copper/zinc unit cost up; coal demerger decision next week


Glencore plc (GLEN:LON) | 357 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 42,257m


  • Published: 30 Jul 2024
  • Author: Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS
  • Pages: 10
  • BNP Paribas Exane


2Q24 production miss but guidance maintained. Copper/Zinc unit cost up Generally, a weaker 2Q24 print with misses vs cons seen in copper (-7%), zinc (-4%) and total coal (-13%). However, productions are expected to catch up in H2: African copper will recover +c30kt from H1 mill outage and by accessing higher grade ore and higher throughput at Mutanda. Kazzinc is expected to ramp up +c60kt in H2 at Zhairem. The expected H2/H1 uplift in coal production will be mainly driven by its Australian assets, reflecting longwall changes, improved equipment availability, and reduced strip ratios. Meanwhile, 2Q24 production in nickel came in line. KNS''s operating losses to be reported in Adjusted EBITDA in 1H24 are expected to be cUSD100m, including in relation to its transition to care and maintenance in 1Q24. Cobalt beat by +3%, while ferrochrome was +7% ahead of consensus. 2024 production guidance has been maintained across the portfolio except for recently acquired EVR operations, whose coking coal production guidance was increased from 6mt to 12mt (100% basis) due to early closure of the deal. Copper full-year unit cost guidance of USc150/lb was revised up to USc163/lb, including to reflect the impact of lower TCs on metallurgical asset credits and lower cobalt volumes and price realisations. Zinc full-year unit cost guidance of USc5/lb was revised up to USc18.6/lb, including to reflect the impact of lower TCs on metallurgical asset credits. Net debt to decline on meaningful working cap reduction GLEN expects a ''meaningful'' reduction in 1H24 working capital (VA cons. USD 379m), contributing to a h/h decline in net debt. Decision on potential coal demerger to be announced next week A decision on the potential coal demerger is now expected to be announced alongside interim financial results next week. This is earlier than we had expected and conversations with the buyside for some time have expected GLEN to not spin out the business. Glencore will release...

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