Canada''s major railway operators look set to strike (22 August) which would restrict Glencore''s ability to export its coal from recently acquired EVR. We estimate each week of lost shipments is cUSD60m of EBITDA (1% of our 2H24 group forecast). Canadian back-to-work legislation will likely restrict the length of the strike, assuming it goes ahead. Looming railway strike could disrupt coal shipments from recently acquired Elk Valley Glencore''s recently acquired Elk Valley Resources (EVR) transports its coal via Canadian Pacific''s railway system to the Ridley (Prince Rupert) and Neptune (North Vancouver) terminals, to access the export markets. For 2H24, we forecast EVR''s EBITDA contribution at USD1.5bn (14% of group). Each week of lost shipments, we estimate would reduce EBITDA by cUSD60m (0.6% of 2H24 group EBITDA forecast) and lead to associated build-up inventories. Talks between both of Canada''s main railway companies, Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, and the Teamsters union have reached a deadlock with either side accusing the other of bad faith. The railway companies have said they will start locking out workers next week (22 August) if a labour deal cannot be reached. Back-to-work legislation likely caps length of the strike Usually a tool of last resort, back-to-work legislation can be passed at the federal or provincial level in an effort to end a labour-management dispute. It was first used in 1950, coincidentally when Canadian railway unions launched a nationwide strike, and had its power reinforced by the Supreme Court in 1987. It can be used to end a strike or lockout in an industry that the government decides is essential to the operation of the economy. It has been used 30 times since is introduction and has been used to end strikes by industries including railways, grain handlers, port workers, postal service and air traffic controllers. Industry groups have been lobbying Canadian Prime Minister Justin...