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03 Apr 2024
Coal - breaking up is never easy

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Coal - breaking up is never easy
Glencore plc (GLEN:LON) | 352 -13.5 (-1.1%) | Mkt Cap: 41,607m
- Published:
03 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
15 -
With the views of portions of the investor base moving quickly, we revisit the planned coal spin out and potential value creation opportunity, weighing arguments for and against the transaction.
Coal spin-out still unlocks value, we think
Based on 2026 estimates (when the spin would be likely to occur) and peer multiples, we estimate that the spin plus the improved multiple on the ex-coal business would create USD6.3bn of equity value. If we run a copper upside scenario (USD11,000/t), and hold other commodity price assumptions unchanged, that value increases to USD10.4bn. What is more difficult to quantify is the number of investors (and AUM) that will be able to invest in Glencore shares that currently cannot due to coal exposure. That opportunity is not a small one either as GLEN scores towards the bottom of ownership ranking amongst 500 ESG funds tracked by our ESG team, representing approximately USD420bn of AUM.
Why the change of heart for some
Particularly amongst the hedge fund crowd, there has been a rather quick change of opinion, now believing that GLEN should not or will not spin out the coal business. The view is that abandoning the planned spin out would allow the Net Debt cap to return to USD10bn (currently USD5bn), increase shareholder returns and retain the strong cash generation for the combined coal business. Contrary to the open letter penned by Tribeca Investment Partners, we see little investor focus on a move in the primary listing from London to Sydney.
EVR transaction on track
Teck''s acquisition of a 77% interest in Elk Valley Resources (EVR) is the first step in the eventual planned coal divestment - getting bigger before getting smaller. The deal, which has not been subject to political (Canadian) opposition since its initial approach for the entirety of Teck Resources, remains on track, subject to required approvals, for 3Q24.