We update post 3Q24 production results, with just modest estimate revisions. Glencore looks set to resume its top up shareholder returns at year-end (BNPPE USD 3bn). 3Q24 better than feared, uplift needed into 4Q24 As with many miners, Glencore is expecting a stronger end to the year. We''ve compared the required Q4 uplift (figure 1) required to hit Glencore''s production guidance (figure 3) and upper/mid/lower outcome as indicated. Cobalt (+27%) requires the steepest increase while copper is flat (+1%) into Q4. Still forecasting USD 3bn in top up shareholder returns at year-end Given the modest earnings forecast revisions, we continue to estimate USD 3bn in top up shareholder returns to be announced alongside year-end results (February 2025). Beyond operating performance in 4Q24 and WC movements, there will be two additional factors to consider - timing of Viterra sale to Bunge and potential purchase of Anglo coking coal assets. With the Viterra transaction, which we have assumed brings in USD 1bn in cash proceeds in 2H24 per guidance, the recent Bunge earnings call hinted it may fall into early 2025. For its provisional net debt calculation, it will matter more whether the sale completes before Glencore reports results rather than 31 December. Second, will be whether Glencore potentially pursues a purchase of Anglo American''s (+) coking coal assets, in their entirety or with another party. Current market expectations for the portfolio are cUSD3.5bn. Modest estimate revisions, no change to TP Post 3Q24 production results, we make only modest revisions to our estimates, with our 2024-2026 EBITDA forecasts declining by 1% on average (variance table overleaf). This leads to no change in our TP (515p) and reiterate Outperform.