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02 Jun 2025
EVR site visit preview - high quality coal in Canada’s west
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EVR site visit preview - high quality coal in Canada’s west
Glencore plc (GLEN:LON) | 346 3.6 0.3% | Mkt Cap: 40,805m
- Published:
02 Jun 2025 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
19 -
Glencore closed the acquisition of its 77% stake in EVR for USD 6.9bn on 11 July 2024. Nearly a year on, we will be visiting the assets on 25-27 June. EVR''s product mix is 75% high quality hard coking coal, measuring high on both CSR and drum strength and comparing well against Australian coking coals. Glencore''s copper equivalent production is projected to rise +4% by 2027 vs 2024. The integration of EVR is the largest driver to the growth, contributing c300kt incremental copper equivalent volume over the period.
Early signs of improvement
Since taking over ownership of the assets in July 2024, Glencore has already demonstrated early success in operational improvement. 2H24 cash costs declined -14% h/h to the lowest level in three years. Quarterly coal production in 4Q24 of 6.8Mt was also the highest level in seven years. Capex at EVR will be elevated in 2025-2027 (average USD 1.4bn per annum) before declining to USD 1.1bn thereafter. The investments will focus on water treatment facilities, extra haul trucks/shovels to improve material movement capacity and extensive deferred stripping.
Estimate cUSD 200m in annual EBITDA synergies
Glencore is expected to provide an update on synergies on the trip. We estimate approximately USD 200m per annum at EBITDA, focused on marketing, procurement, operating and overhead optimisation.
Shares have lagged but we remain Outperform
Glencore shares have declined nearly 20% YTD, underperforming major mining peers which are down mid-single digit %. Closure of the Bunge/Viterra deal could bring forward up to USD 3bn in share buybacks in the near-term. Thermal and coal prices have bounded off cost support levels but will need further momentum for Glencore''s shareholder returns to return to a double digit yield. Reiterate Outperform with 410p TP.