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30 Jun 2025
EVR takeaways - quality coals well positioned for medium-term demand growth

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EVR takeaways - quality coals well positioned for medium-term demand growth
Glencore plc (GLEN:LON) | 345 -39 (-3.2%) | Mkt Cap: 40,858m
- Published:
30 Jun 2025 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
15 -
Last week we visited Glencore''s EVR assets in BC, Canada, specifically the Fording River and Elkview coking coal mines and Neptune Terminal. Glencore gave a strong defence of the coking coals markets, estimating c25% of seaborne coking coal is underwater on a cash cost + sustaining capex basis. Prices have bounced off this support level a couple times in the last decade, but it is not always a quick turnaround. Entering weak seasonal steel demand in China and looming threat of production cuts in 2H25, we would not anticipate a snapback in pricing in the short-term.
Synergies came in ahead of our expectations
We previously estimated approximately USD 200m in annual synergies from the integration of EVR into Glencore. In total, management laid out USD 400m in upside which could be achieved over a 2 to 3-year period. Notably, this is in addition to the cost improvements already achieved in 2H24.
Asset quality in focus
EVR''s product mix is 75% high quality hard coking coal and 25% a mixture of semi-hard coking coal, semi-soft coking coal and pulverised coal injection (PCI). Its overall quality compares well with Australian coking coals, measuring high on both coke strength after reaction (CSR) and drum strength. The quality of the coal is well positioned for medium/long-term steel demand growth in India and also new blast furnaces being developed in southeast Asia which are up to 2x the size of operating furnaces and will underpin demand for higher CSR coals.
Shares have underperformed, what to look for in the near-term
Glencore shares have declined nearly 20% YTD, underperforming its major mining peers which are down mid to high single digit %. The Viterra-Bunge transaction is scheduled to close this week which could free up to USD 3bn in capital allocated towards an ad-hoc buyback. While expected by the market, it would still be positive as it provides an incremental buying opportunity of its shares. Reiterate Outperform with 410p target price.