Coal is here to stay, to no surprise. With big cash outflows completed in 2H24 (ie EVR acquisition), expectations for top-ups of shareholder returns will be elevated into YE24 results (Feb 2025). We now estimate GLEN could announce USD 3.0bn in top up shareholder retaurns at YE24 results. Coal is here to stay In what was an expected move, arguably quicker than expected prior to last week''s indication that an announcement would be made with 1H24 result, GLEN has decided to no longer spin out the coal business. Rather, its feedback from the investor base was to use the forward coal cash flows to fund growth in its transition metals portfolio, particularly copper, as well as ''accelerate and optimise'' the return of excess cash flows to shareholders. GLEN has allocated up to USD 400m between 2024-2026 for feasibility studies and early works on its Mara and El Pachon copper projects in Argentina. Top-up shareholder returns to resume, just not yet GLEN''s proforma 1H24 net debt of USD 10.3bn was just shy of the revised USD 10bn net debt cap, which had been temporarily reduced to USD 5bn during the EVR acquisition process. However the report, and the tone on the call signalled optimism that GLEN is well positioned to resume top-up payments (incl buybacks) come 2H24 results in February 2025. The integration of EVR and being a bigger business means there could be some upside to the net debt cap, but unlikely to be raised in the near-term. Another aspect to be explored would be the holding of Bunge (est USD 3bn) post its acquisition of Viterra, which they would look monetise it over time and whether a portion of that holding could be netted against the proforma net debt calculation. Earnings revisions We trim 2024-26 EBITDA forecasts by low single digit % given the lower-than-expected 1H24 result and the (upward) revised unit cash cost guidance across copper, zinc and thermal coal. Detailed variance table overleaf. Lower TP to 525p (prev 555p).