This content is only available within our institutional offering.

28 Apr 2021
Ready, Willing and Nagle

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Ready, Willing and Nagle
Glencore plc (GLEN:LON) | 354 -11.2 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 41,902m
- Published:
28 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Brunet Sylvain SBr -
Pages:
23 -
There is no energy transition without Copper, Nickel, Cobalt or Vanadium. Given its leadership positions in each, Glencore is uniquely positioned - yet it trades on a 30% discount to peers. We suggest the conditions look right for the incoming CEO Gary Nagle to consider spinning off carbon-heavy stakes to unlock value. We reiterate Outperform.
New CEO, pragmatic decisions a la Glencore: but what about the next transformative step?
Management surprised the market with its Coal cap announcement in 2018, and again with its decision in December 2020 to reduce its emissions footprint by 40% by 2035. Tail assets are being exited and will rationalise the asset base for good: Mopani, Prodeco, smaller Zinc assets. Oil production in Chad is non-significant and could also face the chop. We would suggest Glencore''s incoming CEO Gary Nagle could consider monetising non-core listed stakes, re-allocating capital to Copper/Cobalt and finding ways to engage with the DoJ on the 2018 subpoena. But for us, the key trade that would unlock huge value is separating out the fossil fuel activities into a Coal-Co.
The case to revisit a Coal / fossil fuel separation earlier. Cerrejon a catalyst?
Glencore''s pledge to reduce its GHG and therefore Coal footprint by 40% by 2035 is a very significant and a more demanding task than spinning the fossil fuel exposure away, but if the equity valuation is not rewarded, why bother? When we first suggested a Coal separation in March 2019, Coal was 30% of Group EBITDA. It is now 9%: thus more manageable to demerge perhaps?
Investment case. Our TP rises to GBp430 (from GBp425) on our updated SOTP
The group''s portfolio is well placed to benefit from price sensitive growth as mid-cycle-like demand accelerates further and the marketing department continues to take advantage of tight market conditions in base metals and energy transition metals. Organic growth projects are being restarted: Zhairem at Kazzinc, Raglan Phase II in...