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06 Jul 2021
Headlam : A – Capital Markets – Day to remember - Buy

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Headlam : A – Capital Markets – Day to remember - Buy
Headlam Group plc (HEAD:LON) | 78.8 -0.2 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 63.7m
- Published:
06 Jul 2021 -
Author:
Michael Donnelly | Tom Brookhouse -
Pages:
14 -
Multiple growth drivers. The addressable UK market is £3bn, of which HEAD currently has c.20%. This market is expected to grow “slowly” and HEAD is the market leader, with >6x the market share of the nearest comp. Multiple examples were given of how better sales practices can accelerate top line growth. A picture was painted of a business that was historically sub-optimal, inefficient and old fashioned. We assume a sustained sales CAGR of c.3% to 2030E; but this figure could double if HEAD can use its leadership position and other drivers (i.e. Trade Counters, Digitisation and the material opportunity with Multiple Retailers) to drive market share to only 30% over an analogous timeframe.
Portfolio. Continuing European operations were not part of the CMD content (Swiss business disposed May’21) and the remainder will contribute <6% of FY21E EBITA, in our view. In due course, our view is that the margin enhancement and greater focus afforded by a purely UK-focussed operation would make the business cleaner and more attractive to investors.
Cost base reduction. Network Consolidation and Transport Integration were showcased in detail, with multiple examples of how sustainable cost savings have been delivered to date, with more to come.
Financial targets. HEAD targets c.150% revenue growth in Trade Counter by 2024 (required capex = c.£20m) as it fills the gap in the market for a “truly national offering”. We believe the c.7.5% target margin for the UK business may be achieved sooner than 2023, and may then be exceeded, assuming the Operational Improvement Programme delivers more than c.£8m of cost savings.
Valuation and catalysts. We raise our target price by +c.7% to 567p (implying a 27% UK market share), but see a plausible blue sky value of 700p+ (suggesting a 40% UK market share). Trading update on 29 Jul’21.