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05 Mar 2020
Headlam : Prelims FY19 - Buy

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Headlam : Prelims FY19 - Buy
Headlam Group plc (HEAD:LON) | 78.5 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 63.5m
- Published:
05 Mar 2020 -
Author:
Michael Donnelly -
Pages:
8 -
In-line FY19 despite a tough year: Revenue / PBT / EPS each in line with our (consensus-level) forecasts at £719.2m (+1.5%) / £39.5m / 38.6p, despite a soft market backdrop and weakness in the UK residential sector. LFL revenue +0.3% and +3.2% in the UK and Continental Europe. GM down 40bps to 31.9% reflected the previously guided mix-shift to commercial as a result of market conditions, and good discipline shown on admin and distribution costs, which were flat as a proportion of revenue.
Strong cash conversion (post IFRS 16) at 107%, leaving net cash of £27m post a £13.4m investment in the Ipswich facility. DPS flat at 25p per guidance.
Ongoing revenue and margin initiatives include the successful roll-out of IM system in FY19, and the £26m Ipswich RDC on track for an Apr’20 launch.
Current trading and outlook: No impact so far from COVID-19; trading to date (FY20) has been “marginally below the Board’s expectations”, but management still expects a “modest improvement compared with 2019 as advised in the January 2020 Pre-Close Trading Update”. We leave our forecasts unchanged for the time being, expecting sales / EPS growth of >1% / >2% respectively in FY20E.
Valuation: We restate our unchanged 595p target price (PE 15.1x). The shares currently sit at a c.8% discount to their long-run PE median of 13.2x for a 5%+ yield and £27m of net cash on the balance sheet, in addition to an attractive UFCF yield of c.10% for FY21E. Our TP DCF requires sustained sales CAGR / margins of only 2% / 5.5% respectively. We expect a trading update in May’20.