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  • 20 Jan 2025

Judges Scientific : FY24 in-line, strong FY25 tailwinds - Buy


Judges Scientific plc (JDG:LON) | 6,550 -6550 (-1.5%) | Mkt Cap: 435.4m


  • Investec Bank
    • Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin | Lydia Kenny

    • 8 pages


 

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Judges Scientific : FY24 in-line, strong FY25 tailwinds - Buy


Judges Scientific plc (JDG:LON) | 6,550 -6550 (-1.5%) | Mkt Cap: 435.4m


  • Published: 20 Jan 2025
  • Author: Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin | Lydia Kenny
  • Pages: 8
  • Investec Bank


FY24 in-line. FY24 was a challenging year, impacted by multiple headwinds such as a subdued economic backdrop, China weakness, and order deferrals. Organic order intake increased 7.0% y-o-y (+2.2% ex the Geotek coring contract), with the organic order book growing to 18.7 (16.9 ex coring) weeks of sales (FY23 16.7 weeks). Revenues declined 5.8% organically (-0.7% ex coring) with operational gearing driving a large impact on profitability (we forecast FY24E operating profit declining 20.1% y-o-y on a 460bps margin contraction). A focus on cash has led to FY24 cash conversion returning to historical levels (>90%). Improving outlook. The Board expects FY24 adjusted EPS to be in-line with current market expectations of 276.8p (INVe: 273.8p) and consistent with guidance given in November. FY25 has started ‘more encouragingly’ with Geotek’s coring expedition commencing and several of the deferred projects from FY24 anticipated to contribute in H1’25. Unchanged forecasts. A strong recovery in our FY25E earnings estimate is underpinned by delivery of delayed orders, Geotek’s coring contract (we estimate this could amount to a c.£3.5m profit contribution), and recent acquisition contribution (we estimate c.£1.1m profit contribution). Valuation. The shares have fallen 12.9% this year and 28.2% in total since its trading update in November, driving a sharp de-rating in valuation multiples (19.8x FY25E P/E and 12.8x EV/EBITDA vs. the 5yr average of 24.5x and 17.4x respectively). We believe, in part, this may have been driven by the market fear of another downgrade. A sequential improvement in trading and tangible growth tailwinds in FY25 should provide scope for the share price to improve from here. Next catalyst. FY24 results on 19 March 2025.

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