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29 Sep 2021
Tail risks fail to materialise

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Tail risks fail to materialise
Smiths Group Plc (SMIN:LON) | 2,375 237.5 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 7,780m
- Published:
29 Sep 2021 -
Author:
Gjani Bruno BG -
Pages:
9 -
H2''21 results met the Streets expectations...
Considering that Smiths had recently commented that it expected to meet market expectations, we were not expecting FY''21 results to present many surprises. In some ways, this was the case. Sales only came in modestly ahead of consensus expectations and whilst headline EBIT beat by 7%, this was because restructuring plans progressed at a faster pace than Smiths had earlier envisaged allowing it to deliver savings ahead of time. Excluding this dynamic, we estimate that Smiths delivered an EBIT print that was roughly in line with the Street''s expectations.
...with encouraging details around trading at John Crane and Flex-Tek
There were some encouraging details contained within the release - namely the better H2 growth at Flex-Tek and stabilisation at John Crane. John Crane delivered zero organic revenue growth with its AM business growing by 3% (also 3% on a two-year stack). Flex-Tek delivered c.12% organic revenue growth driven by its Industrial business (+17%) while its Aerospace business showed signs of recovering (+2% growth). These two divisions will be core in driving growth in ''22. As such, the better momentum displayed by both businesses in H2 should reassure investors.
Kitchen sinking event avoided; attention now turns to the November CMD
In terms of guidance, Smiths spoke of ''returning to historical levels of growth'', which we believe implies delivering c3% organic revenue growth in FY''22 and compares to Consensus expectations of 5%. Detection (30% of sales) was the driver behind the implied cut as the Street modelled organic revenue growth of 4% next year, where Smith''s hinted towards more stable development. However, we don''t expect this to trigger material revisions to consensus earnings and with the tail risk around the new CEO kitchen sinking failing to materialise, one can look forward to the next catalyst - November''s CMD.
We tweak our FY''22 forecasts; our TP moves to...