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31 Mar 2023
Will pricing in Flex-Tek roll off more significantly?

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Will pricing in Flex-Tek roll off more significantly?
Smiths Group Plc (SMIN:LON) | 2,016 342.7 0.9% | Mkt Cap: 6,740m
- Published:
31 Mar 2023 -
Author:
Gjani Bruno BG -
Pages:
10 -
H1''23 results came in ahead of expectations
On balance, Group orders appear to be growing well - 14% at John Crane; DD at Flex-Tek Aero; we think LSD at Detection; Interconnect was the only business to have seen its orders decline. Group sales in H1 came in 6% ahead of Visible Alpha Cons and grew at an organic rate of ~15% (Cons at 11%) and at an implied rate of ~15% in Q2. Pricing accounted for around half the growth (~7%). While all divisions exceeded expectations, the strength in John Crane (4% ahead of Cons.) and Flex-Tek (10% ahead of Cons.) stood out particularly.
H1 adjusted operating profit came in 5% ahead of Cons; margin missed expectations modestly (20bps). Divisionally, a strong John Crane margin (+150bps ahead) almost made up for the disappointment across all other divisions. Flex-Tek''s margin (-110bps miss) was underwhelming in the context of the strong organic sales growth it delivered (due to poorer mix and higher investments).
Smiths guides to ''at least 8%'' organic sales growth and modest margin expansion
Smiths now guides to ''at least 8% organic sales growth'' (at least 7% previously) and ''modest margin improvement'' (pre-results Cons. modelled 8% organic sales growth and margin +40bps YoY). Guidance implies that Smiths expects to deliver at least 3% organic sales growth in H2 and for margins to expand by 110bps YoY (assuming FY''23 margin is up +40bps YoY, as per Cons).
Where does risk reside?
While organic sales growth in Flex-Tek was strong in H1, Smiths is unsurprisingly talking of a slower start in its Construction markets in H2 (~50% US resi). Volumes and pricing have started to deteriorate. Naturally, how fast pricing unravels is a key risk. Elsewhere, Detection''s growth is likely to be OE led, meaning mix will remain challenging in the near-term.
We update our numbers for latest trading; our TP moves to 1750p (from 1725p)
Our headline profit estimates move up by 3% for FY''23 but remain largely unchanged for FY''24....