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09 Nov 2022
First Take: Smiths Group - Strong Q1 gives confidence in guidance

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First Take: Smiths Group - Strong Q1 gives confidence in guidance
Smiths Group Plc (SMIN:LON) | 2,379 -142.7 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 7,791m
- Published:
09 Nov 2022 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin -
Pages:
4 -
Smiths has released a strong Q1 trading update. Key highlights include strong organic growth, and maintained FY guidance appears underpinned.
Current trading
Q1 (Jul y/e) organic revenue was up 13.2% driven by organic growth across all divisions. We estimate that this figure would have been high single-digit if not for a large Detection order delivery. Regardless, this is still a very strong Q1 performance for Smiths.
John Crane posted steady growth despite supplier shortages impacting revenue conversions and order growth remains strong. Detection posted strong growth, as expected given timing of order deliveries. Flex-Tek delivered strong growth driven by aerospace and construction. Interconnect generated solid growth driven by semiconductor.
We assume that margins are running on track with expectations.
The £742m share buyback programme (announced in November 2021) is on track with £617m of purchases so far; at the current run-rate and share price, the programme is expected to complete in early calendar 2023.
Outlook
There is strong demand in most of Smiths end markets and management is executing on its strategy while navigating supply chain and cost inflation.
Despite external uncertainties, FY23 guidance of 4-4.5% organic growth with moderate margin improvement is reiterated, underpinned by a strong start to its FY23.
We expect growth to moderate in some key markets within Flex-Tek and Interconnect, consistent with management commentary and Detection growth will normalise through the year. We assume that John Crane continues to deliver growth.