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24 Jan 2024
Ceres Power : China headwind. Upside remains - Buy
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Ceres Power : China headwind. Upside remains - Buy
Ceres Power Holdings plc (CWR:LON) | 378 69.5 5.2% | Mkt Cap: 734.5m
- Published:
24 Jan 2024 -
Author:
Alex Smith -
Pages:
7 -
Strong cash position - FY23 revenue is expected to be in line with previous guidance at c.£21-22m at a c.60% gross margin. Ceres’ balance sheet remains robust: with cash and investments of c.£140m at year-end, ahead of estimates largely driven by positive working capital movements.
China JV unlikely to complete in current form – Ceres has announced that the planned JV, announced two years ago with Bosch and Weichai, is unlikely to go ahead in its current form. The company highlights that it maintains a strong relationship with both its strategic partners, and it is evaluating options with Weichai as to how it can address the China market.
Updated forecasts - We update numbers accordingly, removing China JV licence revenue and future dividends from the JV from our model. Alongside this we make adjustments to the speed of growth of our royalty revenues but note this is more a timing impact and thus forecasts shift to the right and the backdrop remains very constructive for SOFC and SOEC. Subsequently, while our TP reduces to 765p, we reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Upside to numbers remains - The Delta deal demonstrates the speed at which those looking to gain access to Ceres’ world leading technology can transact as they look to gain exposure to the green hydrogen market for fuel cells and electrolysers. Ceres’ tech and licence model is attractive for partners looking for flexibility and looking to accelerate their exposure in the energy transition. The associated licence payments from new partners are significantly high margin and can quickly bolster revenue and cash positions, and web note Ceres has a growing pipeline of potential partners.