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27 Jul 2021
First Take: Ceres Power - 1H in line, expanded Weichai agreement
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First Take: Ceres Power - 1H in line, expanded Weichai agreement
Ceres Power Holdings plc (CWR:LON) | 365 12.4 0.9% | Mkt Cap: 709.8m
- Published:
27 Jul 2021 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Thomas Rands, CFA | Rory Smith -
Pages:
4 -
1H on track with FY21 revenue expectations
This pre-close trading update confirms 1H revenue will be circa £17m, up 90% y-o-y, and at a high gross margin.
It remains on track to deliver full year revenue in line with consensus estimates of £31.5m, barring no additional Covid-related restrictions/disruptions. Interim results due 30 September.
We leave our forecasts unchanged. In our view, Ceres remains one of the best ways to gain exposure to the global energy transition.
New Weichai agreement
Today’s new news is the announcement that management have agreed a new joint development programme with Weichai for a stationary power application, alongside the existing transportation/mobile power agreement. They will jointly develop a 30kW stationary power module which we believe will initially target data centres, as well as other local applications.
Progress has been made in discussions around the $50m Weichai JV in China, albeit this has been slower than originally expected (we had expected an announcement in 2Q21). This delay is likely linked to negotiations around the new stationary power agreement. Both parties are aiming to form the JV by the end of 2021.
Bosch to invest €400m in SOFC
Bosch is targeting investment of €400m over the next three years into its SOFC business, with plans to install circa 100 small-scale fuel cell power stations in 2021. These will be installed in data centres, industrials firms and residential neighbourhoods.
AVL partnerships started strongly
The AVL relationship has already introduced three-early-stage projects along with a significant pipeline of opportunities.
Shipping MoU opens up another end market
Doosan has signed a memorandum of understanding with Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering to jointly develop a SOFC system to provide cleaner power for ships.
SOEC gaining traction
The 1MW-scale SOEC demonstrator continues on track to be operational in 2022. There has been strong interest from potential commercial partners since the 1 July SOEC CMD.
We believe this demonstrator, and future larger scale units, will be key to proving the SOEC technology works at scale. Picking the key development partners will be the next challenge. SOEC royalties offer significant upside risk to our outer year (2025 and beyond) forecasts.