Energy - Cavendish sector note

Oil eased off yearly highs, capping a tumultuous week that saw the Federal Reserve flagging a further rate hike and Russia banning diesel exports. While Russia’s announcement of a temporary embargo on gasoline and diesel exports has tightened an already stressed global fuel market, signals that the Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs higher for longer have cooled oil’s rally. West Texas Intermediate posted its first weekly loss in a month, after reaching the highest level this year.   St

Morning Note – 21 September 2023

88 Energy - Mapping of Upper Slope Fan System Complete

88 Energy has announced that mapping of the recently identified Upper Slope Fan System (Upper SFS) across its Project Phoenix acreage has been finalised. The interpretation has revealed that the Upper SFS is more extensive than originally mapped, correlating over four miles to strong shows in the Icewine-1 well. The Upper SFS encountered some of the best quality reservoir during drilling, with porosities of up to 16%. Resources within the Upper SFS are yet to be estimated and are additional to t

Oil & Gas Weekly - Cavendish sector note

Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd -- Rights Issue and Placing Raises A$12m

88 Energy has completed a A$12m rights issue and a placing to fund ongoing activity across the Company's high impact asset base. This includes the flow testing of the Hickory-1 well at Project Phoenix, where multiple hydrocarbon bearing zones were encountered across all pre-drill targets, including the new Upper Slope Fan System. The Hickory-1 flow test programme is scheduled to commence as early as possible in the 2023/24 winter operational season. A positive flow test result will expedite the

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Chariot, Falcon Oil & Gas, 88 Energy, Longboat Energy, bp, IOG, Predator Oil & Gas, Gran Tierra Energy, Harbour Energy, Jadestone Energy, Genel Energy, Panoro Energy, Parex Resources, ConocoPhillips, APA Corp, Maurel et Prom

Oil posted its sixth straight weekly gain, the longest streak in more than a year, after OPEC+ heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply curbs into next month and US stockpiles sank by a record. West Texas Intermediate settled above $82 a barrel, taking gains during the six-week span to about 20%. Saudi Arabia said Thursday it would extend its unilateral 1 million barrel-a-day output cut into September and that the move could be prolonged further or even deepened. Russia will exten

Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd -- Focus on Flow Testing

Following the encouraging initial post-well analysis from the Hickory-1 well, investor attention now turns to the Hickory-1 flow testing programme, scheduled to commence as early as possible during the 2023/2024 Alaskan winter operational season. Initial analysis has confirmed that the Hickory-1 well intersected multiple hydrocarbon-bearing zones across all primary and secondary targets and identified the new Upper Slope Fan System reservoir.

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Chariot, Trinity Exploration & Production, Wentworth Resources, Baron Oil, Deltic Energy, Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, IOG, John Wood Group, Gran Tierra Energy, Ithaca Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, Aker BP, OKEA ASA, Var Energ

Oil fell from an 11-week high as traders locked in profits and the commodity's 200-day moving average again provided a barrier to further advances. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent are still headed for their third straight week of gains as supply disruptions in Africa and a reduction in shipments from Russia tightened the market. WTI futures ended the session around $75 a barrel, up roughly 2% this week. The US benchmark hasn't breached its 200-day threshold since August, although futu

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Longboat Energy, 88 Energy, Jersey Oil & Gas, Petro Matad, PetroTal, Hunting, Canadian Overseas, Block Energy, Caspian Sunrise, Aker BP, OKEA ASA, Shell

Oil posted a second weekly gain as evidence mounted that the decision by OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia to tighten supplies was making a mark across physical markets. West Texas Intermediate settled near $74, the highest in over a month, supported by risk-on sentiment on Friday. Crude posted its first back-to-back weekly increase since May, with near-term time spreads flipping into a narrow backwardated structure, a bullish pricing pattern. Saudi Arabia set large price increases for

Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd -- Texas Production Consolidation

88 Energy has announced the acquisition of a portfolio of non-operated conventional oil and gas producing assets within the Permian Basin, Texas. The acquisition represents a further expansion of 88 Energy's move into producing oil and gas assets and is in-line with the Company's strategy to build a successful full-cycle E&P company. The assets add net 2P reserves of 1.1mmboe at an attractive low-cost entry point of US$1.0/boe with potential upside coming from two new wells, planned in H2/23. Ea

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Wentworth Resources, Trinity Exploration & Production, 88 Energy, Diversified Energy, Capricorn Energy, Serica Energy, i3 Energy, IOG, Zephyr Energy, Jadestone Energy, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Petrofac, ADM Energy, UK Oil & Gas, Molec

Brent oil posted its longest run of quarterly losses in data going back more than three decades amid robust supplies and persistent concerns over demand. Oil has faced worries about a potential global economic slowdown as well as a lacklustre recovery in China. Robust crude exports from Russia and Iran have kept supplies ample, outweighing a potential pickup in summer demand and production cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The global benchmark settled below $75

Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd -- Active Across the Portfolio

88 Energy has announced positive operational updates in relation to the Hickory-1 well and Project Leonis. Preliminary analysis of the petrophysical data at the Hickory-1 well indicates that the prospective zones to be tested as part of a 2023/24 flow testing programme are all expected to flow hydrocarbons based on reservoir characteristics. This analysis also indicates that the reservoirs are likely to be in the oil maturity window. At Project Leonis, seismic reprocessing of the existing 3D sei

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Trinity Exploration & Production, Tethys Oil, Wentworth Resources, Shell, Petro Matad, SDX Energy, Reabold Resources, Caspian Sunrise, Sound Energy, Touchstone Exploration, IOG, Maurel et Prom, PetroNeft Resources, Gulf Keystone

Oil rose on Friday, cementing a gain for the week, as macroeconomic trends suggested stronger demand globally. Crude has gotten a lift from signals that China's usage will continue to grow, indications that the US driving season will be robust and expectations that the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate increases will provide the economy some temporary relief. Still, the rally is being capped as stockpiles continue to swell despite Saudi-led OPEC+ production cuts. The production cuts

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Getech Group, IOG, i3 Energy, Savannah Energy, Jersey Oil & Gas, Jadestone Energy, Challenger Energy Group, Zephyr Energy, Hurricane Energy, PetroTal, Barryroe Offshore Energy

Oil posted a weekly decline as demand concerns continue to dominate market sentiment even after Saudi Arabia's unilateral pledge to cut production. West Texas Intermediate settled near $70 a barrel, closing out the week lower than where it last stood before Saudi Arabia's surprise weekend announcement. The commodity clocked a 2% weekly decline even with the wild gyrations set off by duelling international headlines. Riyadh's surprise decision to cut output by about 1 million barrels caused a

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Trinity Exploration & Production, Empyrean Energy, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Kistos, Savannah Energy, United Oil & Gas, Reabold Resources, Rockhopper Exploration, Baron Oil, Arrow Exploration, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Southern E

Oil climbed alongside risk assets, with attention focusing on this weekend's OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. OPEC and its allies are expected to weigh disappointing Chinese economic indicators and the effects of the deal to raise the US debt ceiling as they consider output levels at this weekend's gathering. Many market watchers project OPEC+ will keep output levels unchanged, though the group's cuts unveiled in April surprised traders, and Saudi Arabia's energy minister recently warned speculators

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Imminent partner in Morocco

• The US$2.7 mm cash position at the end of June is in line with our expectations. • Although inflation across the industry and rig availability had complicated and delayed the finalization of a farm-in agreement for Anchois in Morocco, negotiations on partnering are in the final stages. A partner could be announced very soon. • Progress has been made across the portfolio. Onshore Morocco, permitting is under way with drilling now expected to start in early 2024 with up to four wells. Prospects

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties: Benefitting from rising rate environment

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties*: Utah lithium royalty acquisition

Interim Results

Diversified reported strong interim results, with production that was marginally below our estimate more than outweighed by tight cost control to deliver EBITDA ahead of our forecast; we broadly retain our FY23 estimates.

Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Suspended, Under Review) - Interim results; readmission now expected in Q4

Pantheon Resources - Positive Outlook for Pantheon Resources

We believe that the outlook for Pantheon Resources is significantly improving.

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 68p) - Cascadura production update

Central Asia Metals: H1 2023 Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) results in H1 2023 follow a record prior comparable period, with the swing between the two primarily due to commodity price performance. H1 2023 net revenue of US$93.6m was down 18% YoY, EBITDA of US$48.9m was down 35% YoY. COGS was up 9.8% YoY given global inflationary pressures. Other charges on the P&L were minimal particularly now CAML is debt free. Owing to the timing of tax charges and some unfavourable working capital movements which we expect to be resolved

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 62p) - Cash generation and scale in Trinidad to the fore

Bushveld Minerals: H1 results; progress at Vanchem post period end

Bushveld Minerals (“BMN”) has released its results for H1 2023 having already released production of 1,784t at a weighted average cash cost of US$26.6/kgV, with H1 sales of 2,096tV through destocking during the period. Revenue for the period was US$78.4m, with adj EBITDA of US$10.3m and attributable NPAT of -US$14m. The company finished H1 with US$3.7m of cash and US$90.7m of debt. We expect H2 production of 1,992tV, split between 925tV from Vanchem and 1,067tV from Vametco, bringing full year p

Interim results

Bushveld delivered as robust a financial performance as could reasonably be expected in H1 2023 given the operational challenges faced. We are encouraged by the reported progress made at both Vametco and Vanchem since, and vanadium price aside (current prices are soft, and pose a downside risk if they do not recover in-line with our assumptions) we think Bushveld is broadly on course to meet our full-year estimates. But given its stressed balance sheet, concluding the refinancing of its c.US$45m

Chariot - Anchois Partnering in Final Stages

The partnering process at Anchois is now close to a conclusion, with farm-out negotiations in their final stages. The FEED phase of the Anchois gas development was completed in March, with Chariot continuing to make progress across all the Anchois technical and commercial workstreams. Post period, Chariot added the synergistic, low-cost, low-risk Loukos Onshore licence. Loukos Onshore contains several near-term drilling opportunities, which, if successful could lead to fast-tracked gas productio

Value anomaly despite resilient trading

LIBERUM: Lithium - Rock Developers: EMH, SAV, ALL, PLL & ZNWD are all stand outs, on post-tax bases

CMD - still plenty of growth potential