Interim Results

Diversified reported strong interim results, with production that was marginally below our estimate more than outweighed by tight cost control to deliver EBITDA ahead of our forecast; we broadly retain our FY23 estimates.

Cenkos: Diversified Energy Company Plc -- Record Production and Cash Flows

Diversified has reported record average net daily production of 142kboepd in H1/23, up 4% YoY, and a H1/23 exit rate of 144kboepd. Whilst H1/23 has seen lower natural gas pricing compared to 2022, Diversified's disciplined approach to natural gas hedging has allowed the company to realise an average revenue per unit 25% higher than the Henry Hub gas price and maintain an EBITDA cash margin of >50%. The stock's current yield of c16% and upside to our target price of 153p make for a highly attract

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Diversified Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, 88 Energy, Longboat Energy, Empyrean Energy, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, i3 Energy, Gulf Marine Services, Arrow Exploration, Pantheon Resources, Challenger Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, Sta

Oil prices surged above $85 as a monthslong effort by OPEC+ to reduce supplies gripped the physical market and China showed a new resolve to bolster its economy, a key engine of global crude consumption. West Texas Intermediate climbed for the seventh straight day, extending the longest such run since January and closing at the highest settlement price since November. US futures have advanced 7.2% this week, notching the biggest weekly gain since March. Saudi Arabia has led a charge since

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 01/09/23

Oil up on Russian export curbs

Auctus on Friday - 01/09/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: target price of A$0.08 per share: Funding from the Austrian Science Fund to collaborate on study at Welchau – The Austrian Science Fund will fund a scientific project in the Welchau area to better understand the geology of the area. An Environment Sustainability project will also be conducted by a group of experts funded by ADX. The project budget is A$0.75 mm to which the Austrian Science Fund will contribute A$0

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Getech Group, Diversified Energy, Tethys Oil, Afentra, Kistos, Pharos Energy, Jadestone Energy, United Oil & Gas, DNO ASA, Woodside Energy, Santos, Maurel et Prom, Wellesley Pet

Oil posted a fourth weekly gain amid lower summer trading volumes and tentative signs that global markets are tightening. Russia has shown indications of paring crude exports as it belatedly honours a pact with Saudi Arabia and the OPEC+ alliance to help balance world markets. China, the world's biggest crude importer, also has stepped up efforts to boost its flagging economic recovery. This week, oil continued to follow the whims of broader market sentiment due to dwindling liquidity. Cru

Auctus on Friday - 21/07/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$25 per share: 2Q23 production in line. Adding horizontal wells at Llanos-34 – 2Q23 production of 36,581 boe/d was in line with our expectations with strong performance at Llanos-34, Platanillo and CPO-5, offsetting lower production in Chile and Ecuador. The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia are now expected to return to production in August (rather than July) when the requ

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Chariot, Trinity Exploration & Production, Wentworth Resources, Baron Oil, Deltic Energy, Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, IOG, John Wood Group, Gran Tierra Energy, Ithaca Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, Aker BP, OKEA ASA, Var Energ

Oil fell from an 11-week high as traders locked in profits and the commodity's 200-day moving average again provided a barrier to further advances. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent are still headed for their third straight week of gains as supply disruptions in Africa and a reduction in shipments from Russia tightened the market. WTI futures ended the session around $75 a barrel, up roughly 2% this week. The US benchmark hasn't breached its 200-day threshold since August, although futu

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Longboat Energy, 88 Energy, Jersey Oil & Gas, Petro Matad, PetroTal, Hunting, Canadian Overseas, Block Energy, Caspian Sunrise, Aker BP, OKEA ASA, Shell

Oil posted a second weekly gain as evidence mounted that the decision by OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia to tighten supplies was making a mark across physical markets. West Texas Intermediate settled near $74, the highest in over a month, supported by risk-on sentiment on Friday. Crude posted its first back-to-back weekly increase since May, with near-term time spreads flipping into a narrow backwardated structure, a bullish pricing pattern. Saudi Arabia set large price increases for

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Wentworth Resources, Trinity Exploration & Production, 88 Energy, Diversified Energy, Capricorn Energy, Serica Energy, i3 Energy, IOG, Zephyr Energy, Jadestone Energy, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Petrofac, ADM Energy, UK Oil & Gas, Molec

Brent oil posted its longest run of quarterly losses in data going back more than three decades amid robust supplies and persistent concerns over demand. Oil has faced worries about a potential global economic slowdown as well as a lacklustre recovery in China. Robust crude exports from Russia and Iran have kept supplies ample, outweighing a potential pickup in summer demand and production cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The global benchmark settled below $75

Auctus on Friday - 30/06/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.100 per share: Exploration portfolio update in Austria: larger volume, lower risk – The exploration portfolio in Upper Austria is now estimated to hold 213 mmboe of best technical prospective resources (previously 200 mmboe) in 20 prospects. The importance of the upgrade is as much about risk reduction as it is about resources increase. The expansion of the portfolio also provides new opportuni

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 28/06/23

Crude falls on ECB comments

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Trinity Exploration & Production, Tethys Oil, Wentworth Resources, Shell, Petro Matad, SDX Energy, Reabold Resources, Caspian Sunrise, Sound Energy, Touchstone Exploration, IOG, Maurel et Prom, PetroNeft Resources, Gulf Keystone

Oil rose on Friday, cementing a gain for the week, as macroeconomic trends suggested stronger demand globally. Crude has gotten a lift from signals that China's usage will continue to grow, indications that the US driving season will be robust and expectations that the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate increases will provide the economy some temporary relief. Still, the rally is being capped as stockpiles continue to swell despite Saudi-led OPEC+ production cuts. The production cuts

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Getech Group, IOG, i3 Energy, Savannah Energy, Jersey Oil & Gas, Jadestone Energy, Challenger Energy Group, Zephyr Energy, Hurricane Energy, PetroTal, Barryroe Offshore Energy

Oil posted a weekly decline as demand concerns continue to dominate market sentiment even after Saudi Arabia's unilateral pledge to cut production. West Texas Intermediate settled near $70 a barrel, closing out the week lower than where it last stood before Saudi Arabia's surprise weekend announcement. The commodity clocked a 2% weekly decline even with the wild gyrations set off by duelling international headlines. Riyadh's surprise decision to cut output by about 1 million barrels caused a

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Trinity Exploration & Production, Empyrean Energy, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Kistos, Savannah Energy, United Oil & Gas, Reabold Resources, Rockhopper Exploration, Baron Oil, Arrow Exploration, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Southern E

Oil climbed alongside risk assets, with attention focusing on this weekend's OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. OPEC and its allies are expected to weigh disappointing Chinese economic indicators and the effects of the deal to raise the US debt ceiling as they consider output levels at this weekend's gathering. Many market watchers project OPEC+ will keep output levels unchanged, though the group's cuts unveiled in April surprised traders, and Saudi Arabia's energy minister recently warned speculators

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties: Mexican standoff

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Imminent partner in Morocco

• The US$2.7 mm cash position at the end of June is in line with our expectations. • Although inflation across the industry and rig availability had complicated and delayed the finalization of a farm-in agreement for Anchois in Morocco, negotiations on partnering are in the final stages. A partner could be announced very soon. • Progress has been made across the portfolio. Onshore Morocco, permitting is under way with drilling now expected to start in early 2024 with up to four wells. Prospects

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties: Benefitting from rising rate environment

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties*: Utah lithium royalty acquisition

Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Suspended, Under Review) - Interim results; readmission now expected in Q4

Pantheon Resources - Positive Outlook for Pantheon Resources

We believe that the outlook for Pantheon Resources is significantly improving.

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 68p) - Cascadura production update

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 62p) - Cash generation and scale in Trinidad to the fore

Central Asia Metals: H1 2023 Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) results in H1 2023 follow a record prior comparable period, with the swing between the two primarily due to commodity price performance. H1 2023 net revenue of US$93.6m was down 18% YoY, EBITDA of US$48.9m was down 35% YoY. COGS was up 9.8% YoY given global inflationary pressures. Other charges on the P&L were minimal particularly now CAML is debt free. Owing to the timing of tax charges and some unfavourable working capital movements which we expect to be resolved

Bushveld Minerals: H1 results; progress at Vanchem post period end

Bushveld Minerals (“BMN”) has released its results for H1 2023 having already released production of 1,784t at a weighted average cash cost of US$26.6/kgV, with H1 sales of 2,096tV through destocking during the period. Revenue for the period was US$78.4m, with adj EBITDA of US$10.3m and attributable NPAT of -US$14m. The company finished H1 with US$3.7m of cash and US$90.7m of debt. We expect H2 production of 1,992tV, split between 925tV from Vanchem and 1,067tV from Vametco, bringing full year p

LIBERUM: Shanta Gold: Solid beat at interims

Interim results

Bushveld delivered as robust a financial performance as could reasonably be expected in H1 2023 given the operational challenges faced. We are encouraged by the reported progress made at both Vametco and Vanchem since, and vanadium price aside (current prices are soft, and pose a downside risk if they do not recover in-line with our assumptions) we think Bushveld is broadly on course to meet our full-year estimates. But given its stressed balance sheet, concluding the refinancing of its c.US$45m

Chariot - Anchois Partnering in Final Stages

The partnering process at Anchois is now close to a conclusion, with farm-out negotiations in their final stages. The FEED phase of the Anchois gas development was completed in March, with Chariot continuing to make progress across all the Anchois technical and commercial workstreams. Post period, Chariot added the synergistic, low-cost, low-risk Loukos Onshore licence. Loukos Onshore contains several near-term drilling opportunities, which, if successful could lead to fast-tracked gas productio

Value anomaly despite resilient trading

LIBERUM: Lithium - Rock Developers: EMH, SAV, ALL, PLL & ZNWD are all stand outs, on post-tax bases