HELLENiQ ENERGY - Dividend shows confidence in future

ELPE reported its final results on 29 February. Adjusted net income of €0.6bn was lower than our forecast of €0.64bn. A positive surprise was that the board is recommending a final dividend of €0.60 per share, which was above our expectation of €0.30 per share. We believe this reflects management’s confidence in the current shape of the business. The balance sheet has been strengthened year-on-year, with net debt reduced from €1.94bn (at end-FY22) to €1.63bn. Our forecasts are under review.

HELLENiQ ENERGY - Shareholders reduce holding

Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) and Paneuropean Oil & Industrial Holdings (POIH) have announced that they have sold 33.6m shares in HELLENiQ ENERGY, representing 11% of the existing ordinary shares. These were sold via an international private placement at a price of €7.00 per share. Although this is a third-party transaction, this will benefit the liquidity of HELLENiQ ENERGY’s shares.

HELLENiQ ENERGY - Shaping up for the future

HELLENiQ ENERGY is a leading southern European refiner. Management is in the middle of a transformation programme that has seen the corporate structure streamlined. The group is now embarking on decarbonising the business and building up its renewable energy business, which will lead to it being better positioned for the future.

Q1: Refining margins and high sales volumes underpin the results

Helleniq Energy had a good start to the year with more resilient margins compared to its peers. The adjusted EBITDA was €404m, moderately down 7% qoq but up by 3x yoy. Decarbonization efforts continue with a green hydrogen project nearing investment and a pilot biofuel project in the implementation process. The company is likely to announce an acquisition in the renewable asset space, probably outside Greece.

HELLENiQ Energy - Another strong set of results

HELLENiQ Energy reported Q322 adjusted EBITDA of €504m, c four times higher than Q321 (€125m) and c 25% ahead of consensus (c €404m; seven analysts). This was mostly driven by a strong performance in Refining, Supply & Trading, due to strong benchmark refining margins and exports (46% of total refining sales). In addition, HELLENiQ reported improved profitability of international subsidiaries, as well as a significantly greater contribution from RES (Renewable Energy Sources). Furthermore, impro

Q3: Great beat and solid profits

Robust domestic demand and exports increased revenues by 5% qoq to c.€4.2bn. Despite the higher cost of sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income posted strong results, the latter being 3% higher qoq. In line with the sector trends, refining margins retreated from their record high levels in Q2 FY22 but remained significantly above the benchmark thanks to middle distillate strength and optimized crude slate.

Hellenic Petroleum - Record Q2 results

Hellenic Petroleum reported Q222 adjusted EBITDA of €535m, almost seven times higher than a year earlier (€79m) and c 50% ahead of consensus (c €350m; six analysts). This was driven by a strong performance across all divisions. Refining saw record-high EBITDA with strong refining margins and export performance, due to market disruption and energy security concerns, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with strong demand from improved economic activity. This was despite a scheduled maint

Q2 22: enjoys highest-ever refining margins

Q2 FY2022 was an exceptional quarter for Hellenic Petroleum, as it was for all O&G and refining companies thanks to skyrocketing prices of energy commodities and high product margins. Despite maintenance-driven outages, the company benefited from its integrated and complex refinery structure. Despite lowering margins in H2, 2022 is bound to be a good year for Hellenic Petroleum with all-time-high figures.

Hellenic Petroleum - Strong Q1 results

Hellenic Petroleum reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA of €99m, a 54% increase year-on-year and c 20% ahead of consensus (€82m; based on four analysts). This was driven by strong benchmark refining margins and Greek market recovery (fuel demand was up 16% y-o-y). It was partially offset by higher energy and CO2 costs and an approximate two-month planned outage at the Elefsina refinery. As a result of the outage, net production was 2,798k metric tons (MT), down 16% y-o-y; however, this was partially offs

Q1: ready with turnaround completed

Nothing outstanding as the quarter was in line with expectations, largely impacted by the full turnaround at Elefsina. The group is now ready to capture the surging middle distillate crack spreads.

Hellenic Petroleum - Low dependency on Russian crude

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, is making progress in its Vision 2025 strategy by building a 0.3GW renewable energy portfolio as of Q122. The company reported Q421 adjusted EBITDA of €138m, up 80% from Q420 (€77m), supported by a recovery in the refining sector. We expect Hellenic to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher oil demand in Q122 and note that margins increased as an immediate reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as natural g

Q4: positive results, challenges ahead

Good results, with the announcement of the dividend representing 85% of the FY earnings. Refining showed a small improvement qoq, which was not guaranteed with the higher costs for energy and carbon. During the call, the company reported that Urals represented around 15% of its feedstock in H2, and can be replaced with Middle East crudes. While this is reassuring, the environment will nonetheless be a challenging one (for European refiners at large) without the Russian medium sour crude.

Hellenic Petroleum - Recovery in oil demand supports operations

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q321 EBITDA of €125m, up 90% from Q320 (€66m), with improved performance across all segments. We expect it to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher demand for transport fuels in the coming months due to increased economic activity. However, this should be partially offset by higher operating costs due to sharply rising energy prices.

Q3: good performance despite the headwinds

Despite being a very large consumer of energy, Hellenic Petroleum mitigated the current crisis rather well to deliver a strong set of results. EBITDA from the refineries was indeed at the highest since the pandemic. The group also benefits from the increase in tourism and overall economic activity, with a strong marketing division.

Hellenic Petroleum - Expect refining earnings turnaround in H2

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q221 EBITDA of €79m This is a 26% increase on Q220 (€63m) and was driven by a strong performance in its petrochemicals and retail marketing activities, offset partially by a weak performance in its refining business. We expect rising demand for transport fuels and higher benchmark refining margins to drive a recovery in refining earnings in H2. Hellenic is also moving toward its Vision 2025 strategy, with the ongoing spin-off of its r

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - Full year 2023 results

I3 has released its full year 2023 results, demonstrating the cash generation capability of its business, and funding position going into the increased planned 2024 CAPEX programme, where new drilling is expected to begin in June.

Trinity Exploration and Production - Core Business Remains Robust, Cost Manageme

Q1/24 sales volumes averaged 2,669bopd, a 2% QoQ and 8% YoY reduction (Q4/23: 2,736bopd, Q1/23: 2,899bopd) as Trinity continues to offset natural production decline through an active programme of workovers, recompletions, and swabbing. Trinity has reiterated its 2024 sales volume guidance of 2,600-2,700bopd (a c5% YoY reduction at the mid-point). Cash at 31 March 2024 was US$8.6m (31 December 2023: US$9.8m). Trinity has also provided an update on the Jacobin-1 well, where the forward plan is to

Seplat Energy: 1Q24 results - operations strong, financials skewed

Seplat delivered an encouraging operating performance in 1Q24 including production of 49.3kboed, towards the upper end of guidance (44-52kboed). All current guidance was maintained but good progress on the ANOH export infrastructure and an earlier than expected resumption of exports through Zone 6 of the Trans Niger Pipeline improve confidence that guidance will be at least met. Financial performance for the quarter was skewed by a substantial underlift, FX effects, and a high deferred tax charg

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Further reserves addition at Carrizales Norte

• FY23 production was in line with our expectations and the YE23 cash balance of US$12 mm had been reported previously. • The highlight of the announcement is the discovery by the CN-8 well of multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals. 14 feet of net oil pay were encountered in the Carbonera in an area that was not considered prospective. The pay zone is a clean sandstone exhibiting consistent 25% porosity and high resistivities. The well has been put in production at a gross rate of 330 bbl/d (165

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum: Special divi 1p, guidance maintained

Annual Results – Major Turnaround

Serabi Gold (AIM: SRB, TSX: SBI) have released their FY2023 annual results today, delivering on what has been a strong year back to profitability. Overall, earnings have largely tracked our forecast. The company has also announced a debt refinancing as a post year end balance sheet event.

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) - Full year 2023 results

Arrow has released its 2023 results, alongside updates on its ongoing drilling programme in Colombia. These help demonstrate the progress made on production and cash flows as a result of the campaign so far, with drilling activity ongoing throughout 2024.

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Afentra, Touchstone Exploration, Trinity Exploration & Production, Sound Energy, Serica Energy, Star Energy, Southern Energy Corp, Ithaca Energy, i3 Energy, Equinor ASA, OKEA ASA, Aker BP, Galp Energia, Var Energi, TotalEnergies, Eni SpA, Repsol SA, ExxonMobil, Chevron Source: FactSet, weekly change 22/04/24-26/04/24 Oil rose this week amid signs of a tightening physical market while traders continue to assess lingering Middle East risks. West Texas Intermediate edge

i3 Energy - 2024 Guidance: Consolidation for Growth

i3 Energy announced that its 2024 guidance consists of expectations to drill 10.5 net wells (7.6 net wells in Central Alberta, 1.9 net wells in Simonette and 1.0 net wells in the Clearwater play) with 85% of capex allocated to the second half of the year. Total capex expenditure for the year is guided at $US 50.9m. The company indicated that it intends to commence pad drilling of its Montney acreage in Q1 2025 and we perceive the company is bulking up for that significant growth opportunity for

Beowulf Mining (BEM LN) – Initiation Note – BUY – Supporting Scandinavia's Green Transition

Beowulf is an AIM/Spotlight-listed developer of two flagship assets; Kallak, a high-grade iron ore project in Sweden and the Grafintec Graphite Anode Materials Plant. The Company's Kallak North project has the potential to produce 2.5mtpa of high-grade, premium iron ore concentrate suitable for the growing green steel industry in Sweden. Additionally, Grafintec's Anode Material Plant Project is well positioned to serve the growing EV battery supply chain in Europe, whilst supporting EU plans

Morning Note – 29 April 2024

Ariana Resources - Rockover merger and the potential prize at Dokwe in Zimbabwe

Ariana reported an all-share merger with Rockover Holdings last Thursday (25.04.2024). We today provide some more context on our thoughts on the proposal. The first thing to say is that, in our view, Ariana has acquired a low-risk project (open pit, JORC Resource, exploration potential, positive PFS with a good return and amenable metallurgy); this is no greenfield project with attendant exploration risk – it has demonstrated value. We also note that the resource and PFS are calculated at $1,650

Trinity Exploration and Production - Reserves Reduction but Solid Core Business

Trinity has announced a c28% reduction to its 2P reserves following a YE23 review. Despite the decrease in the Company’s 2P reserves, Trinity’s core business remains robust, with a reserves/production ratio of >12.5 years at YE23. Whilst there is significant potential for growth within the current portfolio, this will be difficult to unlock from the current balance sheet and we believe further financing will be required. We update our target price to 76p (from 202p), a c85% premium to the curren

FY23 - preparing for horizontal drilling

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices hold $10,050/t as inventory levels tick lower