Phoenix Global Resources (PGR) – Production falls 38.5% as Argentine shutdowns hit hard | Star Phoenix Group (STA LN): Prudent approach to capital discipline
Companies: Phoenix Global Resources plc (PGR:LON)Star Phoenix Group Ltd (STA:LON)
SDX Energy (SDX LN)C; Target price £0.45 per share: Growing the prize, accelerating drilling - Sales in Morocco are now almost back to pre COVID 19 levels (90%). This is important for cash flow. SDX has now mapped additional prospects on the South Disouq license, resulting in gross prospective resources increasing by 139 bcf to 233 bcf. Drilling in Egypt is being accelerated to start in 2Q21 with two initial wells targeting 165 bcf, including the new Hanut prospect with 139 bcf gross prospective resources and a 33% Chance of Success. The volumes targeted by the first part of the programme are 5x larger than what we were previously anticipating (34 bcf). At the end of September, SDX held US$9.2 mm in cash with the majority of the 2020 capex programme having already been incurred. With no debt and expected FY21 cashflow of ~US$30 mm (largely unaffected by oil price movements), this leaves the company with ample liquidity to fund the upcoming drilling programme. Overall, we estimate the prospects the company will target with the drill bit over the next twelve months at £0.38 per share, which represents 2.4x the current share price. The main items are the LMS-2 well test in Morocco (£0.14 per share) and the Hanut well in Egypt (£0.16 per share). This does not include the potential for additional look-alike prospects to LMS-2 to be drilled in 2021. While the company continues to deliver positive updates and the materiality of the upcoming drilling is growing, the shares continue to trade at EV/DACF multiples of only 1.3x in 2020 and 0.5x in 2021. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN): Partnership agreement with Oaktree Capital – Diversified and Oaktree are partnering to jointly pursue US PDP acquisitions with individual transaction valuations over US$250 mm. Oaktree and Diversified will fund equal portions of any acquisitions, however Oaktree will provide Diversified a 5.0% upfront promote of its funded working interest (2.5% incremental) at the time of an acquisition. In addition, upon achieving a 10.0% unlevered IRR on its investment, Oaktree will convey to Diversified 15.0% of its working interest (7.125% incremental). Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update in Brazil – Sales production for the month of September totalled ~ 3,255 boe/d, During the month of September the dual GTE-4 oil producing well was shut down for 14 days, due to workover operations. Fishing operations to date have been unsuccessful and a more rigorous workover operation is now scheduled during the fourth quarter to restore production from the AG zone. Production from the GTE-4 well (Sergi zone) resumed on the 28th of September. Tartaruga had issues during the month with unreliable power from the local grid – back up generation has been is installed and production is stabilizing. Parex Resources (PXT CN): Buy back and operation update in Colombia – Parex plans to buy back up to a further 10% of its share capital by YE20. 3Q20 production was 44.2 mboe/d and 4Q20 production is expected to be 44-48 mboe/d with US$40-50 mm capex. The company plans to drill the Cayena horizontal exploration well on the Fortuna block and one appraisal well at the Boranda Block. At Block LLA-94, the Grulla well will be re-entered. The company held US$350 mm in cash at the end of September. Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): 1H20 results – 1H20 production in Argentina was 4,369 boe/d. At 30 June 2020 the group had cash of US$1.4 mm and total borrowing US$317.7 mm. Proposed changes in Trinidad’s fiscal regime - The government of Trinidad is proposing to lift the threshold for the imposition of the very punitive Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) from US$50/bbl to U$75/bbl. EUROPE Getech (GTC LN): 1H20 results – 1H20 revenue totalled £2.1 mm. The orderbook was £2.9 mm at the end of June. The company held £2.8 in cash at the end of June. Getech is currently negotiating with two potential Energy Transition acquisition targets. Key sectors of focus are mining, geothermal energy and the hydrogen economy. Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Update in the UK – 3Q20 production averaged 13,600 bbl/d with current production of 14,500 bbl/d. Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN): No offer to buy Deltic Energy (DELT LN) – Independent will not make an offer to acquire Deltic with two approaches rejected by Deltic. Lundin Energy (LUNE SS): Acquisition of exploration licences in Norway – Lundin is acquiring from Idemitsu interests in a portfolio of licences in the Barents Sea, including a 10% WI in the Wisting oil discovery and a further 15% WI in the Alta oil discovery with an overall 70 mmboe net contingent resources. The proceeds consist of US$125 mm in cash. OMV (OMV AG): 3Q20 update – 3Q20 production was 444 mboe/d. Premier Oil (PMO LN): Merger with Chrysaor – Premier Oil is merging with Chrysaor. The Transaction is expected to result in Premier’s stakeholders owning up to 23% (including 5.45% by Premier’s shareholders) of the combined group. A cash payment of US$1.23 bn will be made to financial creditors of Premier. The transaction provides ~US$0.61 on the dollar cash recovery for existing creditors plus US$0.14 in shares for an overall recovery of 75%. The combined entity had >250 mboe/d at the end of June and 2P reserves of 717 mmboe as YE19. The acquisition of the BP assets by Premier will not go ahead. Repsol (REP SM): 3Q update – 3Q20 production was 615 mboe/d. UK Oil & Gas (UKOG LN): Raising £2.2 mm of new equity – UK Oil & Gas has raised £2.2 mm of new equity priced at 0.16 p per share to fund its share of initial drilling and seismic costs in Turkey. FORMER SOVIET UNION JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): Operating update in Russia and Ukraine – 3Q20 WI production was 10,245 boe/d including 4,727 boe/d in Ukraine and 5,519 boe/d. The company held US$18.8 mm net cash at the end of September. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Tullow Oil (TLW LN): RBL Redetermination – Tullow’s RBL credit facility has been redetermined with US$1.8 bn of debt capacity. As a result, the Group retains ~US$500 mm liquidity headroom of undrawn facilities. The next redetermination will commence at the end of November and is expected to be completed in January 2020.
Companies: UKOG TLW SDX REP PXT PMO PGR OMV MAHAA LUNE JKX HUR GTC DGOC
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target: £0.45: Initiating coverage – PetroTal is a production and reserve growth story in Peru with a market cap of ~£90 mm. Management’s experience of operating in the jungle and their deep in country relationships are key. Project execution has been excellent. The Bretaña field (48 mmbbl 2P reserves) was acquired from Gran Tierra in late 2017 with production of 1 mbbl/d achieved in 3Q18. By YE19 that figure had grown to >13 mbbl/d. While COVID-19 forced a shut down of the export infrastructure and Brent prices collapsed to ~US$20/bbl, PetroTal has managed to negotiate with Petroperu a reduction in transport fees and a rephasing of a contingent payment. With the recent US$18 mm equity raise strengthening the balance sheet and production expected to restart in July, PetroTal is returning to growth. Bretaña could produce 20 mbbl/d. PetroTal’s shares trade at ~ one quarter of our Core NAV of £0.46 per share and at one third of the company’s value based on its 2P reserves only (2P NAV of £0.28 per share). On flat production, the share price implies EV/DACF multiples of 1.0x in 2021 turning negative in 2022. Importantly PetroTal’s only material liabilities consist of (1) an oil linked contingent payment over three years to Petroperu on very flexible terms and (2) trade payables of US$49 mm with attractive payment terms. We forecast ~US$45 mm of capex (incl. servicing the payables) in 2H20. This is covered by (1) US$28 mm in cash from a recent equity raise plus collecting pending invoices from oil sales, (2) >US$10 mm of VAT receivables and (3) ~US$25 mm operating cash flow (US$11-12/bbl net backs) in 2H20 at US$38/bbl. At ~US$45/bbl and 12 mbbl/d in 2021, we forecast PetroTal generates ~US$90 mm cash flow with ~US$35 mm cash capex (incl. servicing the payables). Our target price of £0.45 per share (~our Core NAV) represents 4.5x the current share price. i3 Energy (I3E LN): Corporate update | Parex Resources (PXT CN): Trading update in Colombia | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): FY19 results | Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN): Dry hole in Brazil | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): Trading update | Serinus Energy (SEN LN): Deferred EBRD debt repayment | Union Jack (UJO LN): Additional interest in UK asset | SDX Energy (SDX LN): Update in Egypt and Morocco| ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Payment from KRG and debt restructuring | United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Reserves and production update in Egypt | FAR (FAR AU): Not paying cash call in Senegal | Lekoil (LEK LN): Update in Nigeria | San Leon Energy (SLE LN): FY19 results | Savannah Energy (SAVE LN): Trading update | Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Trading update in Cameroon
Companies: SEN SDX TAL PGR VOG PXT SAVE RDSA FAR
Serinus Energy (SENX LN): 1Q20 results - strong financial and operational performance | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Mercuria agrees to amend convertible facilities agreement
Companies: Serinus Energy plc (SEN:WAR)Phoenix Global Resources plc (PGR:LON)
Ascent Resources (AST LN): Entering Cuba | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Production shutdown and licence termination in Argentina | Premier Oil (PMO LN): Exiting Area A in Alaska following drilling results | Coro Energy (CORO LN) and Empyrean Energy (EME LN): Resources increase in Indonesia | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN/FO CN): Farm out transaction in Australia | Oil Search (OSH AU): US$700 mm equity raise| Discovery in Norway | Baron Oil (BOIL LN)/Upland Resources (UPL LN): Relinquish UK licence | EnQuest (ENQ LN): FY19 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): FY results | Ithaca Energy (Delek): Cutting capex for the North Sea | OMV (OMV AG): 1Q20 trading update | Repsol (REP SM): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLE CN/VLU LN): Constrained gas sales in Turkey | Block Energy (BLOE LN): Shutting production in Georgia | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN): FY19 results | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR LN): Corporate update | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): Resources increase in Israel | SDX Energy (SDX LN): FY19 results and discovery in Egypt | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): Reduction of extraordinary dividend, capex reduction, FY20 production guidance maintained | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): Tax update in Kenya | Giant gas development projects delayed | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): Cost reduction and RBL redetermination | Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): Production update in Gabon
Companies: 88E AOI BLOE BOIL CHAR CORO DGOC EGY EME ENOG ENQ IGAS KOS OSH OMV PGR PMO REP ENW SDX TETY UPL VLE
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Not a merry Christmas at Tullow: CEO resigns, production guidance cut, dividend suspended | Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN): Abu Sennan transaction update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Strong operational update from PGR
Companies: TLW RKH PGR
Geopark (GPRK US)1 ; BUY, U$27.00: Recommended cash acquisition of Amerisur Resources (AMER LN) (not covered) | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Additional funding | Parkmead Group (The) (PMG LN) (not covered): Results for year ended 30 June 2019 | DNO (DNO NO) (not covered): Baeshiqa testing Update
Companies: GPRK PGR PMG DNO
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)1 ; BUY, £0.45: Another very good operating update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Divestment of Argentinian assets to Echo Energy (ECHO LN) (not covered) | President Energy (PPR LN) (not covered): Acquisition in Argentina | Valeura Energy (VLU LN/VLE CN)1,7; BUY, £6.00: Final well test results at Inanli-1 and decision by Equinor to start testing Devepinar-1
Companies: TAL PGR PPC VLE
GeoPark (GPRK US)1 ; BUY, US$26.00: New exploration acreage in Brazil | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): 1H19 update in Argentina | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) (not covered): 1H19 results
Companies: GPRK PGR ENW
Phoenix Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Vaca Muerta update in Argentina | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS): BUY, C$2.60; 2Q19 results | Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN) (not covered): 2Q19 results
Companies: PGR AOI ORC/B
Companies: THR TRX KIBO VNET PGR OCI JAN KRS IHC
Amerisur Resources (AMER LN) (not covered): Operations update in Colombia | Arrow Exploration (AXL CN) (not covered): Discovery in Colombia | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): 2Q19 update in Argentina | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) (not covered): Drilling update in the Ukraine
Companies: AMER PGR JKX
Amerisur Resources (AMER): Operational Update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR): Q1 Operational Update | UK Oil & Gas (UKOG): Production Update
Companies: AMER PGR UKOG
Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): FY18 results | Jadestone Energy (JSE LN); HOLD, £0.60: First results imminent from a busy program in Australia | Volga Gas (VGAS LN) (not covered): April production in Russia | Equinor (EQNR NO) (not covered): 1Q19 results | OMV (OMV AG) (not covered): 1Q19 results
Companies: PGR JSE VGAS OMV
Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Unconventional concession at Puesto Rojas in Argentina | Cairn Energy (CNE LN); BUY, £2.80: Dry hole in Norway | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN)1 ; BUY, £0.50: FY18 results | Neptune Energy: FY18 results | Serica Energy (SQZ LN) (not covered): Dry hole in the UK | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) (not covered): Ukraine update | Eco (Atlantic) Oil and Gas (ECO LN, EOG CN) (not covered): Equity raise in Guyana
Companies: PGR CNE IOG SQZ ENW EOG
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Phoenix Global Resources plc. We currently have 39 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
Jubilee put out an intraday press release yesterday updating on the performance in the first half (ending Dec 2020) of the FY 2021. Once again Jubilee delivers; significantly increased revenues and profits from its chrome and PGM division in South Africa and a small, but important, contribution from Zambia. Notably this improvement isn't just from commodity price performance; rather increased production, productivity, throughput, renegotiated contracts and all set alongside the strong performance of commodity prices –rhodium, palladium and platinum. We see this as still only the start for Jubilee as we look forward to the first copper oxide concentrates from the Roan project in Zambia to the Sable Refinery – where the Roan plant is currently under construction. Once again we are struck by the speed at which Jubilee moves to advance its projects and, with its South African cash engine showing no signs of slowing down. Jubilee can choose to move its wider ambitions in Zambia forward from internally generated cash flow. On the back of the strong performance we put our forecasts under review.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – BUY, Valuation 29.4p – Bluejay agrees jv with Rio Tinto over the Enonkoski Project in Finland Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY - Valuation 37.7p – Ferro-Vanadium prices jump 11.6% in the US Edenville Energy* (EDL LN) – Funding agreement refinanced and £900k raised Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Further progress at West African gold assets Lucara Diamonds (LUC CN) – Karowe mine yields 341 carat diamond Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) –Q4 production results continue modest recovery of Q3
Companies: LUC JAY BMN EDL KOD SRB
Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN)C; Target Price: 6.70p: Funding update – BPC has exercised a put option to raise £3.75 mm priced at 2p per share. PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C: Target Price increased from £0.45 to £0.50: US$100 mm bond to accelerate activities and grow production - PetroTal is launching a bond issue to raise US$100 mm. This would allow the firm to accelerate drilling and development activities at Bretana (~US$40 mm), clean up its balance sheet, put in place a hedging programme and allow the firm to consider regional acquisitions. Assuming the extra funding is put in place, we are increasing our capex programme for 2021 from US$40 mm to US$90 mm. We are also increasing our production forecast for 2021 from ~11 mbbl/d to ~15 mbbl/d that we maintain broadly flat in 2023 as we assume PetroTal will drill additional wells before production starts to decline from 2024. We note that the 3P case only assumes five additional wells (~US$70 mm) compared to the 2P case. With more production, we are now forecasting operating cashflow of ~US$170 mm in 2022 and ~US$155 mm in 2023. We are also increasing our Core NAV from £0.43 per share to £0.52 per share. The additional funding would also allow the company to drill exploration wells such as the 70 mmbbl Constitucion prospect (£0.40 per share Unrisked). Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Increasing our target price from £0.35 to £0.40 per share on reserves uplift – The highlight of Pharos’ operational update is the ~40% increase in 2P reserves in Egypt expected as at YE20 (YE19 28.5 mmbbl). This reflects improved waterflood performance based on recent field data, and a new drilling and workover plan for 2021 onwards. Drilling is expected to recommence in Vietnam in 3Q21, a quarter earlier than previously announced. We have increased our target price from £0.35 per share to £0.40 per share to factor in the expected increase in reserves in Egypt. We estimate the value of Pharos based on Vietnam only at £0.23-0.27 per share. This is 15-35% above the current share price. Securing a partner to fund a development programme with four rigs in Egypt would increase the value of the ~ 40 mmbbl 2P reserves in Eqypt and unlock the contingent and 108 mmbbl prospective resources. Our incremental unrisked value for the four rig programme is £0.17-0.19 per share (~85% upside to the current share price). Successfully negotiating new terms with EGPC could lead to an improvement of up to US$6/bbl in the breakeven price. We have previously estimated that securing similar terms to TransGlobe would boost our Core NAV by £0.10-0.12 per share and ReNAV by £0.13-0.15 per share. TransGlobe Energy’s share price has tripled since the new terms on its licences were announced. Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; Target Price: SEK75.00: Production update in Oman – Production at Block 3&4 in December was 11,481 bbl/d. Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US)C; Target Price: £4.00: Initiating Coverage - VAALCO is a US and UK listed ~£75 mm market cap, ~10 mbbl/d oil producer (pro-forma) with West African assets. VAALCO has an excellent track record as an operator having grown a 30 mmbbl discovery in Gabon to a field that has produced >118 mmbbl so far with an additional 37 mmbbl remaining 2P reserves plus ~80 mmbbl upside at YE19. The shares have suffered in the past from (1) a lack of materiality as VAALCO held only ~31% of its main asset, with G&A viewed as representing a disproportionate amount of cash flow and (2) lack of visibility on how the significant amount of cash on the balance sheet would be deployed. The US$44 mm acquisition of an additional ~28% WI in Etame announced in November, thereby almost doubling production, reserves and resources overnight, has addressed these issues. The story is now about continuing to grow reserves at the producing Gabonese field and to replicate this success elsewhere. With estimated net cash of >US$25 mm at the end of 1Q21, VAALCO’ s shares trade at less than half our 2P NAV of ~£2.70 per share. The current share price discounts an EV/DACF multiple of 1.2x in 2021. Low risk infill drilling of contingent resources could add ~£0.45 per share (30% of share price) with an overall unrisked value for the upside at the producing asset of £4.80 per share (~4x the current share price). Finalizing the farm out of its asset in Equatorial Guinea could start unlocking a further £4.20 of unrisked value. Our target price of £4.00 per share (~ our ReNAV) represents ~230% upside. Wentworth Resources (WEN LN)C; Target Price: £0.40: >100 mmcf/d reached in December - FY20 gross production was 65.36 mmcf/d (in the middle of the 60-70 mmcf/d guidance) with ~83 mmcf/d on average during the month of December. Repairs to the MB-2 flowline were completed on 9 December, increasing the capacity of the field to over 100 mmcf/d. Production reached 103 mmcf/d for five days during that month. Gross production guidance for FY21 is 65-75 mmcf/d, below the 80 mmcf/d we were carrying as production growth is pushed back by a year. Cash on hand of ~US$18 mm is in line with our expectations. With 70 mmcf/d gross production in 2021 and almost no capex, we forecast FY21 Free Cash Flow of ~US$10 mm. With FY20 dividends of only US$3.2 mm and ~US$18 mm in cash, we believe there is scope to increase the dividend. At the current share price, the FY20 dividend represents a yield of ~6%. Even after the recent share price appreciation, the shares continue to trade at EV/DACF multiples of 2.9x in 2021 and 2.2x in 2022. This compares with 3.8x for 2020, suggesting there is room for multiple expansion given the stable nature of the business. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS 88 Energy (88E LN/AU): Acquisition in Alaska – 88 Energy is acquiring the Umiat Oil Field, located on the North Slope of Alaska. The proceeds consist of a 4% overriding royalty interest and the assumption of the abandonment liability of two historic wells (at an estimated cost of ~US$1 mm). Umiat is an historic oil discovery, made in 1945 in shallow Brookian (Nanushuk) sandstones, located immediately adjacent to southern boundary of Project Peregrine. The Umiat-23H well was flow tested at a sustained rate of 200 bbl/d with no water in 2014. Gross 2P reserves were estimated at 123.7 mmbbl on 1 December 2015. Equinor (EQNR NO): Farming down Argentinian offshore exploration to Shell - Equinor and YPF farm-down 30% interests in the CAN 100 block, located in the North Argentinian Basin to Shell. Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Dispute in East Texas and acquisition of new acreage - Kinder Morgan has filed a petition against Pantheon, seeking payment of ~US$3.35mm with respect to the early termination of a Gas Treating Agreement between Kinder Morgan and Vision Operating Company. In a separate statement, the company indicated it has acquired 100% interest in ~66,000 acres in the State of Alaska's North Slope Areawide Lease Sale. The new leases are positioned in two areas contiguous to the company’s current acreage. Parex Resources (PXT CN): Operation update in Colombia – 4Q20 production was 46,550 boe/d compared to Parex’ guidance of 45,500-47,500 boe/d. 1Q21 production is expected to average 46,500-47,500 boe/d. The Brent/Vasconia differential is currently ~US$2/bbl. Parex estimates a cash position of US$325 mm at YE20. Total (FP FP): Discovery in Suriname - The Keskesi East-1 well, in Block 58, encountered a total of 63 meters net pay of hydrocarbons, comprised of 58 meters net black oil, volatile oil, and gas pay in good quality Campano-Maastrichtian reservoirs, along with 5 meters of net volatile oil pay in Santonian reservoirs. EUROPE Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN): Operating update in the UK – Phase 1 remains on schedule for First Gas in 3Q21. Drilling is expected to start in early 2Q21. Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Operating update in the UK North Sea - Production for the final four months of 2020 averaged 12,500 bbl/d. Current water cut is 25%. YE20 net free cash was US$106 mm, compared to US$87 mm at 30 November 2020. Lundin Energy (LUNE SS): Resources increase in Norway – YE20 2P reserves are 670.9 mmboe (+ 39.3 mmboe versus YE19). The YE20 2C resources are 275.5 mmboe (+90.2 mmboe et YE19). OMV (OMV AG): Trading update – 4Q20 production was 472 mboe/d including 290 mboe/d of natural gas. FORMER SOVIET UNION Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Operating update in the Ukraine – 4Q20 production was 4,444 boe/d. At YE20, the company held US$61 mm in cash. Petroneft (PTR LN): Potential acquisition in Russia – Petroneft is looking to acquire an additional 40% interest in Licence 67 from Belgrave Naftogas for US$2.9 mm including US$1.2 mm in shares and the balance in cash. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): Operating update in Kurdistan – FY20 gross production at Shaikan was 36,625 bbl/d with current production of 44,000 bbl/d. As at 12 January 2021, the Company had a cash balance of US$147 mm. FY21 gross production guidance has been set at 40,000 to 44,000 bbl/d with US$15 to $20 mm net capex and US$2.5 to US$2.9/bbl opex. ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Terms update for bonds – ShaMaran is looking to use free cash in excess of US$15 mm to buy back its Bonds in the market to satisfy the cash sweep redemption requirements. United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Production update in Egypt – 2H20 WI production was 2,340 boe/d in line with guidance for the period of 2,300 boe/d. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BW Energy (NEW NO): Farm-in transaction in Namibia – BW Energy is acquiring 39% WI in the Kudu offshore licence from the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR). BW will pay US$4 mm in cash and carry NAMCOR’s share of development costs until first gas. NAMCOR will also have the opportunity to acquire an additional 5% working interest post first gas. Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): Update in Tanzania – FY20 sales volumes were 57.7 mmcf/d. Cash and short-term investments totalled US$103.8 mm at YE20. As at YE20 there were no current receivables due from TANESCO. The TANESCO long-term trade receivable was US$27.6 mm. EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK ________________________________________ 18/01/2021: Repsol (REP SM) – Trading update 19/01/2021: Genel Energy (GENL LN) – 4Q20 trading update 20/01/2021: Cairn Energy (CNE LN): Trading update
Companies: 88E BPC EQNR HUR LUNE PXT PHAR SNM TETY TETY FP EGY WEN
Trinity has proven the sustainability and resilience of the Company's business model, increasing both production and cash despite significant challenges in 2020. FY20 average production volumes increased 7% on 2019 to 3,226bopd despite no new drilling activity in 2020. Cash at 31 December 2020 was US$20.2m, a 27% YoY increase – driven by strong operating cash flow, and achieved despite a 36% reduction in average oil price realisations versus 2019. Average production volumes in Q4/20 increased by 2% on Q3/20 to 3,206bopd, with Trinity offsetting natural production declines through its rigorous approach to production management. Post-period, the Trinidad and Tobago Government lifted the threshold for the imposition of SPT for small onshore producers from US$50/bbl to US$75/bbl in 2021 and 2022, providing a considerable boost to Trinity's cash generation potential. With a high number of growth initiatives underway across the energy spectrum, Trinity is well positioned to broaden its portfolio and create further value as it looks to further scale the business. We increase our price target to 34p (from 32p), almost 3x the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Gas composition data from the Kyalla 117 well has confirmed the presence of liquids-rich gas within the Lower Kyalla Shale, with less than 1% CO2. Analysis of the Kyalla 117 well has shown that the gas stream contains c65% methane gas, with c33% being other liquid gases such as ethane and butane. The analysis also supports the view that the Kyalla gas stream will have elevated LPG and condensate yields. Operations are scheduled to recommence at Kyalla 117 at the beginning of the dry season in Q2/21 and will initially focus on flowing back sufficient hydraulic fracture stimulation water to allow the Kyalla 117 well to flow continually without assistance.
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
European Metals has recently enjoyed a long overdue share price re-rating. The shares have increased ten-fold from Covid lows in April 2020 on the back of a marked improvement in lithium sector sentiment. EMH’s market cap is now £127m. Covid has in many ways accelerated the push towards EVs and the low carbon agenda. Europe is now the battleground for Electric Vehicles (“EVs”) where material sources, security of supply and the entire value chain is coming under ever increasing scrutiny. The DFS at EMH’s Cinovec project is due for completion by the end of 2021.The time has come for EMH and over the next 12 months we should see with more clarity how Cinovec fits into Europe’s growing EV and battery industry. We see no other project better placed to dovetail into the European battery market and supply battery-grade lithium at scale.
Companies: European Metals Holdings Limited
Foresight Group , the award-winning infrastructure and private equity investment manager to IPO on the Main Market (premium). The Offer will primarily comprise a sale of shares by existing shareholders (c.80% of the Offer) with a smaller offering of new shares (c.20% of the Offer) to be issued by the Company. Details TBA. Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5 million by way of private placement of new Common Shares (the "Fundraising") to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: TYM W7L BEG CRPR EUZ IRR CMCL FARN KETL AUG
Results from the 2020 soil-till sampling campaign have been reported today and are positive with widespread anomalous gold values, including the highest soil-till assay results to date, along strike to the east and west of BAM Gold for a total length of 8 kilometres. Numerous new drill targets have been identified which have the potential of being advanced into additional resources to continue the rapid growth of the BAM Gold Project. Drilling has commenced in the area to the west and has intersected similar geological lithology and mineralisation to BAM Gold. The drilling programme for 2020-21 at the BAM Gold Deposit is progressing as planned with a total of 6,518 metres of HQ diamond core, comprising 30 drill holes, completed to date. All drill holes have successfully intersected prospective mineralised zones associated with the BAM Gold Deposit. The drill core has been logged, processed, and sent to ALS Minerals of Thunder Bay for analysis to date. Assay results are pending, with increased exploration activity in Canada, the labs are full, with assays now taking 7-8 weeks. The current funded drilling programme is expected to complete in April 2021.
Companies: Landore Resources Limited
Oil slid by the most in three weeks as a stronger dollar and weak US economic data stoked concerns over an economic rebound. Futures in New York tumbled 2.3% on Friday after a rally in oil earlier in the week pushed the benchmark into overbought territory. The US dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. US consumer sentiment cooled more than forecast in January and other economic data such as sluggish retail sales and producer prices also portray the obstacles still facing the country as it emerges from the pandemic. Meanwhile, President-elect Joe Biden said he will ask Congress for $1.9 trillion to fund immediate relief for the US economy that has been pummelled by the pandemic. But the large price tag and inclusion of initiatives opposed by many Republicans set up the aid package for a drawn out legislative battle. Despite the pullback in oil futures, vaccine breakthroughs and Saudi Arabia's pledge earlier this month to deepen output cuts are expected to support prices. JPMorgan Chase & Co said a “nasty deficit” could emerge in the oil market later this year. Meanwhile, technical indicators had been flashing warnings signs all week. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for both US and global benchmark crude futures traded above 70 this week in a sign they were overbought, though both slipped under that level Friday. Prices West Texas Intermediate for February delivery fell $1.21 to settle at $52.36 a barrel. Futures rose less than 1% this week. Brent for March settlement lost $1.32 to end the session at $55.10 a barrel. The contract fell 1.6% during the week. The market's structure has also softened. Brent's prompt timespread dipped back into contango on Friday, a bearish structure where nearby prices are cheaper than later-dated ones. This week has seen the annual commodity index rebalancing take place -- a move that was expected to see as much as $9 billion flow into the oil market. Since it began last Friday, there has been a surge in so called trading-at-settlement volumes, an instrument often used by participants with index exposure. For Brent, average volumes over the last five days have reached a record. Other oil-market news:
Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Salt Lake Potash Lake Way Project is nearing completion with the Process Plant and NPI well advanced. The overall project, including all on-lake infrastructure, was 81% complete on 31 December 2020. The Project remains on track for first SOP production in March 2021 and first SOP sales in April, with the project capital budget unchanged at A$264m. Funds from the first US$105m tranche of the Project Development Facility have been received enabling repayment of the US$45m Bridge Facility and completion of project construction. The Process Plant was 88% complete on 31 December 2020 (on an earned value basis). Approximately 27kt of potassium rich kainite and schoenite salts have been harvested for commissioning plant feed from the Train 1 cells. Harvesting activities will re-commence in March ahead of plant commissioning. Process Plant commissioning is expected to commence in February with introduction of first feed salts to the plant in March.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Limited
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported Q4 2020 production with 3,365t of copper taking full year output to 13,855 in line with our forecast of 13.9kt and at the top end of guidance. Q4 lead output was 7,442t meaning 29,741t over the full year, up 2% YoY and in line with our forecast of 30kt while zinc output of 5,848t took full year output to 23,815t again in line with our forecast of 24kt and up 2% YoY despite the disruption at Sasa which CAML has overcome rapidly as we expected.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
Companies: AAZ AAU CNR GLEN RIO TSG CCZ IRR
Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5 million by way of private placement of new Common Shares (the "Fundraising") to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb. Moonpig, the digital greeting card company, is planning an IPO with a potential valuation of £1bln, according to multiple media reports. Further details expected to be announced over the next two weeks.
Companies: ZPHR PANR PRSM SENS CYAN G4M ITX CRCL FEN ZIN
AEX Gold Inc (AEXG LN) –Operational update Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – AIM Admission – Writing the next chapter in Cornwall's long mining history Cornish Metals* (CUSN CN) – CLICK FOR PDF Europa Metals Limited (EUZ LN) – Drilling starts at Europa's Toral zinc, lead, silver project in Spain Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) – Record mine production at Blanket GoldStone Resources (GRL LN) – Settlement of Claim by Former Director IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Further results from Zaranou gold exploration project, Cote d'Ivoire Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Exploration projects update Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – New copper exploration project in Nevada
Companies: CUSN CMCL AEX GRL ORR TYM EUZ IRR
Origin Energy has submitted a Notification of Discovery on the Kyalla 117 well in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, following the unassisted production of 0.4-0.6 MMscf/d of liquids-rich gas over a 17-hour period. The result follows the introduction of nitrogen to lift the fluids in the well. Longer-term measures will now be put in place to flow back sufficient hydraulic fracture fluid to allow for an extended well test during the dry season (Q2/21). The Australian Government has unveiled its plans to accelerate the development of the Beetaloo Sub-basin through the A$224m Beetaloo Strategic Basin Plan, creating the right conditions to grow the onshore gas industry in the Northern Territories. A new A$50m Beetaloo Cooperative Drilling Programme will support A$200m of exploration activity before 30 June 2022, capped at A$7.5m per well. The Government has also committed to establishing a new A$174m Roads of Strategic Importance corridor to upgrade roads supporting the development of gas resources in and around the Beetaloo.
