PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target: £0.45: Initiating coverage – PetroTal is a production and reserve growth story in Peru with a market cap of ~£90 mm. Management’s experience of operating in the jungle and their deep in country relationships are key. Project execution has been excellent. The Bretaña field (48 mmbbl 2P reserves) was acquired from Gran Tierra in late 2017 with production of 1 mbbl/d achieved in 3Q18. By YE19 that figure had grown to >13 mbbl/d. While COVID-19 forced a shut down of the export infrastructure and Brent prices collapsed to ~US$20/bbl, PetroTal has managed to negotiate with Petroperu a reduction in transport fees and a rephasing of a contingent payment. With the recent US$18 mm equity raise strengthening the balance sheet and production expected to restart in July, PetroTal is returning to growth. Bretaña could produce 20 mbbl/d. PetroTal’s shares trade at ~ one quarter of our Core NAV of £0.46 per share and at one third of the company’s value based on its 2P reserves only (2P NAV of £0.28 per share). On flat production, the share price implies EV/DACF multiples of 1.0x in 2021 turning negative in 2022. Importantly PetroTal’s only material liabilities consist of (1) an oil linked contingent payment over three years to Petroperu on very flexible terms and (2) trade payables of US$49 mm with attractive payment terms. We forecast ~US$45 mm of capex (incl. servicing the payables) in 2H20. This is covered by (1) US$28 mm in cash from a recent equity raise plus collecting pending invoices from oil sales, (2) >US$10 mm of VAT receivables and (3) ~US$25 mm operating cash flow (US$11-12/bbl net backs) in 2H20 at US$38/bbl. At ~US$45/bbl and 12 mbbl/d in 2021, we forecast PetroTal generates ~US$90 mm cash flow with ~US$35 mm cash capex (incl. servicing the payables). Our target price of £0.45 per share (~our Core NAV) represents 4.5x the current share price. i3 Energy (I3E LN): Corporate update | Parex Resources (PXT CN): Trading update in Colombia | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): FY19 results | Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN): Dry hole in Brazil | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): Trading update | Serinus Energy (SEN LN): Deferred EBRD debt repayment | Union Jack (UJO LN): Additional interest in UK asset | SDX Energy (SDX LN): Update in Egypt and Morocco| ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Payment from KRG and debt restructuring | United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Reserves and production update in Egypt | FAR (FAR AU): Not paying cash call in Senegal | Lekoil (LEK LN): Update in Nigeria | San Leon Energy (SLE LN): FY19 results | Savannah Energy (SAVE LN): Trading update | Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Trading update in Cameroon
Companies: SEN SDX TAL PGR VOG PXT SAVE RDSA FAR
Serinus Energy (SENX LN): 1Q20 results - strong financial and operational performance | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Mercuria agrees to amend convertible facilities agreement
Companies: Serinus Energy Plc Phoenix Global Resources Plc
Ascent Resources (AST LN): Entering Cuba | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Production shutdown and licence termination in Argentina | Premier Oil (PMO LN): Exiting Area A in Alaska following drilling results | Coro Energy (CORO LN) and Empyrean Energy (EME LN): Resources increase in Indonesia | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN/FO CN): Farm out transaction in Australia | Oil Search (OSH AU): US$700 mm equity raise| Discovery in Norway | Baron Oil (BOIL LN)/Upland Resources (UPL LN): Relinquish UK licence | EnQuest (ENQ LN): FY19 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): FY results | Ithaca Energy (Delek): Cutting capex for the North Sea | OMV (OMV AG): 1Q20 trading update | Repsol (REP SM): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLE CN/VLU LN): Constrained gas sales in Turkey | Block Energy (BLOE LN): Shutting production in Georgia | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN): FY19 results | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR LN): Corporate update | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): Resources increase in Israel | SDX Energy (SDX LN): FY19 results and discovery in Egypt | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): Reduction of extraordinary dividend, capex reduction, FY20 production guidance maintained | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): Tax update in Kenya | Giant gas development projects delayed | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): Cost reduction and RBL redetermination | Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): Production update in Gabon
Companies: 88E AOI AST BLOE BOIL CHAR CORO DGOC EGY EME ENOG ENQ IGAS KOS OSH OMV PGR PMO REP ENW SDX TETY UPL VLE
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Not a merry Christmas at Tullow: CEO resigns, production guidance cut, dividend suspended | Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN): Abu Sennan transaction update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Strong operational update from PGR
Companies: TLW RKH PGR
Geopark (GPRK US)1 ; BUY, U$27.00: Recommended cash acquisition of Amerisur Resources (AMER LN) (not covered) | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Additional funding | Parkmead Group (The) (PMG LN) (not covered): Results for year ended 30 June 2019 | DNO (DNO NO) (not covered): Baeshiqa testing Update
Companies: GPRK PGR PMG DNO
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)1 ; BUY, £0.45: Another very good operating update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Divestment of Argentinian assets to Echo Energy (ECHO LN) (not covered) | President Energy (PPR LN) (not covered): Acquisition in Argentina | Valeura Energy (VLU LN/VLE CN)1,7; BUY, £6.00: Final well test results at Inanli-1 and decision by Equinor to start testing Devepinar-1
Companies: TAL PGR PPC VLE
GeoPark (GPRK US)1 ; BUY, US$26.00: New exploration acreage in Brazil | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): 1H19 update in Argentina | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) (not covered): 1H19 results
Companies: GPRK PGR ENW
Phoenix Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Vaca Muerta update in Argentina | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS): BUY, C$2.60; 2Q19 results | Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN) (not covered): 2Q19 results
Companies: PGR AOI ORC/B
Companies: THR TRX KIBO VNET ALS PGR OCI JAN KRS IHC
Amerisur Resources (AMER LN) (not covered): Operations update in Colombia | Arrow Exploration (AXL CN) (not covered): Discovery in Colombia | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): 2Q19 update in Argentina | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) (not covered): Drilling update in the Ukraine
Companies: AMER PGR JKX
Amerisur Resources (AMER): Operational Update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR): Q1 Operational Update | UK Oil & Gas (UKOG): Production Update
Companies: AMER PGR UKOG
Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): FY18 results | Jadestone Energy (JSE LN); HOLD, £0.60: First results imminent from a busy program in Australia | Volga Gas (VGAS LN) (not covered): April production in Russia | Equinor (EQNR NO) (not covered): 1Q19 results | OMV (OMV AG) (not covered): 1Q19 results
Companies: PGR JSE VGAS OMV
Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Unconventional concession at Puesto Rojas in Argentina | Cairn Energy (CNE LN); BUY, £2.80: Dry hole in Norway | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN)1 ; BUY, £0.50: FY18 results | Neptune Energy: FY18 results | Serica Energy (SQZ LN) (not covered): Dry hole in the UK | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) (not covered): Ukraine update | Eco (Atlantic) Oil and Gas (ECO LN, EOG CN) (not covered): Equity raise in Guyana
Companies: PGR CNE IOG SQZ ENW EOG
Phoenix Global Resources has issued an operational update in respect of the the fourth quarter of 2018. The Company produces approximately 10,000 boe/d, mainly from conventional oil and gas reservoirs in Argentina. However, Phoenix also has exposure to 560,000 net acres in the unconventional Vaca Muerta shale play. Production from this area is rising rapidly as it attracts considerable investment and some holdings have changed hands for over US$13,000/acre. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and 37p price target.
Companies: Phoenix Global Resources Plc
Amerisur (AMER LN) (not covered): reserves update in Colombia | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): 4Q18 operational update in Argentina | Jadestone Energy (JSE LN/CN): £0.50, BUY; 2019 guidance | SOCO International (SIA LN) (not covered): FY18 results | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN); BUY, £0.70: Opportunistic potential offer | Seplat Petroleum (SEPL LN); BUY, £2.70: 4Q18 results
Companies: AMER PGR JSE PHAR IOG SEPL
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Phoenix Global Resources Plc. We currently have 37 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported robust interim results in the context of the H1 2020 backdrop; solid production and the company’s fundamentally low cost base meant that CAML remained profitable despite the sharp pullback in commodity prices during the period which led to a 17% YoY decline in revenue to US$70.8m. Consequently, EBITDA was down 25% YoY to US$42.5m despite a decline in unit costs of 6% YoY at Kounrad and 9% YoY at Sasa to US$0.48/lb and US$0.43/lb respectively which cushioned the impact of the weaker the top line. With no significant one offs in the period, EPS of US$0.10/sh. was 33% lower YoY.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
EQTEC announced (last Friday afternoon) an extension of the exclusivity period of the Billingham MOU until 22 November 2020. The extension of the MOU exclusivity period is with the aim of finishing the preparation of a legally binding option agreement with Scot Bros. which, if agreed, will grant EQTEC and its partners the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the entire issued share capital of Billingham EFW Limited (the project SPV) from Scott Bros. subject to an agreement on consideration and other terms.
Companies: EQTEC Plc
Talitha Shelf Margin Deltaic LKA resource report
Companies: Pantheon Resources Plc
West Newton B-1 drilling update
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
Three day CMD to detail how BP will redeploy hydrocarbons’ capital into renewables. The latter are expected to grow by 12% CAGR by 2030, which surely is more exciting than oil. Returns do not compare though, but BP intends to make good use of its trading division to bridge part of the gap. Lowering the dividend took care of the rest. Overall, BP diversifies its risks early, which might prove right if oil stays under $50.
Companies: BP Plc
Trinity has announced a strong set of interim results during a highly volatile period, with production increasing by 9% year-on-year to 3,282bopd (H1/19 3,007bopd). Operating break-even's post hedging in H1/20 reduced to US$22.3/bbl, a 15% year-on-year reduction and a 65% reduction since 2014. Similarly, a relentless drive to improve efficiencies and reduce costs has seen G&A and opex fall by 67% and 65% respectively since 2014. Despite the dramatic fall in oil prices, Trinity's strong production performance combined with its receipt of VAT receivables via a VAT Bond sale and the drawdown of a small working capital facility facilitated cash balances increasing by 43% to US$19.7m from YE2019. Trinity is well positioned to grow both organically and inorganically, with Trinity signing MoU's and submitting EOI's (in consortium with Cairn Energy Plc) to pursue new opportunities of scale. We set our price target a 31p/share, a 248% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Saudi Arabia's warning to OPEC+ cheaters and short-sellers alike helped oil prices stage their biggest weekly rally since June, despite a grim start to the week as industry heavyweights painted a troubling demand picture for the petroleum complex. Futures in New York rose 10% this week following a show of determination by Saudi Arabia, the most influential nation in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, to defend the market on Thursday. The Saudis hinted they are prepared for new production cuts, and lambasted OPEC+ members that have cheated on production quotas. Prices briefly fell as much as 1.6% on Friday following an announcement from Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar that he will allow crude production and exports to resume. But while Haftar reached the agreement with the country's deputy premier, it was unclear whether the deal that excluded the National Oil Co would actually restart exports. Haftar controls most of eastern Libya and has halted operations and shipments from his territory as part of a campaign against the internationally recognised Tripoli government. The OPEC member is pumping just 80,000 barrels a day, but produced 1.2 million a day last year. Oil reversed last week's losses, which pushed West Texas Intermediate futures toward $37 a barrel amid a slew of downbeat demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency to Trafigura Group and BP Plc. Helping support prices this week, US government data showed crude and gasoline stockpiles declining. American oil stockpiles are now at their lowest since April. But crude may not be out of the woods just yet, with distillate supplies at record highs and refining margins for the fuel deteriorating in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, rising coronavirus infections in Europe raise the spectre of a return to tighter restrictions that have crippled consumption. Prices West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose 14 cents to settle at $41.11 a barrel. Brent for November settlement lost 15 cents to end the session at $43.15 a barrel. The contract rose 8.3% this week, its largest weekly gain since June.
Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Falcon has announced the resumption of activities at Kyalla 117 with the fracture stimulation of the well, and extended production test to follow. Initial results from the production test are expected in Q4/20, with final results expected by the end of Q1/21. Following the farm-down of a 7.5% participating interest to JV partner Origin Energy in April, Falcon is fully funded through the upcoming drilling campaign. We believe success at the Kyalla well will result in the JV further evaluating the potential of the Kyalla liquids rich gas play, thereby fast-tracking the potential commercialisation and monetisation of Falcon's 22.5% working interest. We reiterate our 39p price target (a 406% premium to the current share price) and our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
UKOG has this morning announced that the Xodus Group has estimated that the Loxley gas field has a best estimate recoverable resource of 44bcf gross and 34 bcf net to UKOG within its 100% held PEDL234 licence. The company has indicated the resource estimate must be proven by future production results and that the development of Loxley is subject to planning consent.
Companies: UK Oil & Gas Plc
Ready to steppe it up – initiating coverage
Companies: Enwell Energy Plc
Hargreaves’ FY20 results are very solid indeed. As previously reported, the only noticeable impact from COVID was in the slippage of Blindwells’ land sales, which were due to conclude during the lockdown period. Site activity has resumed and sales remain on track to conclude in the current year. A final dividend of 4.5p has been declared and the outlook statement is measured but confident. We reintroduce forecasts today, effectively reinstating our pre-COVID expectations. Hargreaves is well positioned to deliver a period of significant, renewed growth with the prospect of a double digit dividend yield from FY22 as HRMS profits are distributed.
Companies: Hargreaves Services Plc
There was less tension this quarter, as Shell had already cut its dividend in Q1. The trading units rose to the occasion, bringing a positive surprise in this horrendous quarter. The company has recorded a very large impairment, and is poised to announce a strategic shift once 2020 is in the books.
Companies: Royal Dutch Shell Plc
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact globally in many areas. While primarily a health issue, it has had wide-ranging implications for stock markets, which have now rallied after the plunge in share prices in mid-March when the full severity of the emerging pandemic became more widely appreciated. Nonetheless, the FTSE 100 Index remains almost 20% off its late February 2020 figure.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL GDR ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Production Unit licence for Talitha progressed
