Progressive Corp: Initiation of Coverage – Technological Superiority & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (01/23)

This is our first report on auto insurance major, Progressive Corp. The company had a disappointing quarter and failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings. The management claims that the quarter’s company-wide combined ratio, excluding catastrophe losses, improved by 1.9 points which showed their efforts to combat the impacts of inflation. Hurricane Ian was the biggest single event in this quarter. This quarter, the company increased personal auto rates in 2

Auctus on Friday - 05/08/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Longboat Energy (LBE LN)C; Target price of £1.60 per share: Spudding high impact well in Norway – Drilling operations at the Oswig exploration well (Company 20%) have commenced. The well is targeting the Tarbert and Ness formations, two separate intervals which are estimated to contain combined gross unrisked mean resources of 93 mmboe (19 mmboe net to Longboat). The Oswig geological chance of success is estimated to be 36% and the key

Auctus on Friday - 24/06/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Gearing-up to drill a 800 bcf prospect in 6-12 months – ADX is looking to drill the Welchau prospect in Austria in the next 6-12 months. The well is ~1,100 m deep (TVD) and is expected to cost only ~US$ 4 mm, which could probably be funded from ADX’s own balance sheet or with a farm-in partner. The prospect is expected to hold ~650 bcf of natural gas plus 26 mmbbl of condensate (2U) with a downside case of ~170 bc

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 27/05/22

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? According to news reports, The Very Group, is looking to float after calling off their plan for a £4bn IPO last year due to a volatile market. The ecommerce group is owned by the Barclays family. According to the Sunday Times, the retailer has offered incentives to senior leaders at the firm for pulling off a flotation, which the Barclays family now hope to get underway in mid-2023. Psych Capital PLC, intend

Auctus on Friday - 27/05/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; Target price of A$0.75 per share: Becoming a dividend player - Calima intends to commence a half yearly dividend programme, beginning in 2H22 with first payment in 1H23. The initial half yearly dividend has been set at A$2.5 mm (~A$0.04 per share). On an annualized basis, this represents a 4.1% yield. The company also intends to undertake a share buy back programme for up to 10% of its issued capital in any 12

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 09/03/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: Invinity Energy Systems plc (AIM:IES), a leading global manufacturer of utility-grade energy storage has dual listed on the Aquis Stock Exchange. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? New Energy One Acquisition Corporation Plc, intends to float on Main Market. NEOA is a special purpose acquisition company incorporated in the United Kingdom that has been established to focus on pursuing a Business Combination with targets that are positioned to par

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 04/03/2022

Joiners: More Acquisitions (TMOR.L) has joined the Main Market (standard) raising £1.2m. The Company was formed to undertake one or more acquisitions of a majority interest in a company or business. Any such acquisition undertaken by the Company will be treated as a reverse takeover for the purposes of Chapter 5 of the Listing Rules. The directors intend to search initially for acquisition opportunities in the energy transition sector. Energy transition refers to the global energy sector's shift

Auctus on Friday - 04/03/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/CN)C; Target price increased from £4.80 per share to £5.30 per share: Very large reserves increase – YE21 SEC proved reserves were 11.2 mmbbl, up 250% compared to YE20 (3.2 mmbbl). This large increase reflects (1) a 5 mmbbl addition associated with improved well performance, field-life extension related to cost savings from the replacement Floating, Storage and Offloading vessel, and the addition of proved undevel

Auctus on Friday - 17/09/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target of £0.65 per share: Latest well flows >7.6 mbbl/d. Sales pipeline back on line – The latest horizontal well (BN-8H) has achieved a ten day initial oil production rate of ~7.6 mbbl/d. This is materially above our expectations of ~5 mbbl/d. As a result, current oil production is ~ 15.4 mbbl/d, also above our expectations of >13 mbbl/d. This is a very good result and, with another development well due to

Auctus on Friday - 21/05/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN)/Challenger Energy Group (CEG LN)C; Target of 1.20p per share: Completing financing – BPC has raised £6.9 mm of new equity. This is an important step for the company to fund the upcoming work programme. The key near term newsflow is the drilling of the saffran#2 appraisal well that could derisk ~11 mmbbl. The company has now changed its name to Challenger Energy and will trade under the ticker of “CEG LN”. GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

Phoenix Global Resources (PGR) – Production falls 38.5% as Argentine shutdowns hit hard | Star Phoenix Group (STA LN): Prudent approach to capital discipline

Auctus on Friday - 09/10/2020

SDX Energy (SDX LN)C; Target price £0.45 per share: Growing the prize, accelerating drilling - Sales in Morocco are now almost back to pre COVID 19 levels (90%). This is important for cash flow. SDX has now mapped additional prospects on the South Disouq license, resulting in gross prospective resources increasing by 139 bcf to 233 bcf. Drilling in Egypt is being accelerated to start in 2Q21 with two initial wells targeting 165 bcf, including the new Hanut prospect with 139 bcf gross prospective

Auctus on Friday - 26/06/2020

PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target: £0.45: Initiating coverage – PetroTal is a production and reserve growth story in Peru with a market cap of ~£90 mm. Management’s experience of operating in the jungle and their deep in country relationships are key. Project execution has been excellent. The Bretaña field (48 mmbbl 2P reserves) was acquired from Gran Tierra in late 2017 with production of 1 mbbl/d achieved in 3Q18. By YE19 that figure had grown to >13 mbbl/d. While COVID-19 forced a shut down

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

Serinus Energy (SENX LN): 1Q20 results - strong financial and operational performance | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Mercuria agrees to amend convertible facilities agreement

AUCTUS MONDAY MORNING WEEKLY ROUND UP

Ascent Resources (AST LN): Entering Cuba | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Production shutdown and licence termination in Argentina | Premier Oil (PMO LN): Exiting Area A in Alaska following drilling results | Coro Energy (CORO LN) and Empyrean Energy (EME LN): Resources increase in Indonesia | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN/FO CN): Farm out transaction in Australia | Oil Search (OSH AU): US$700 mm equity raise| Discovery in Norway | Baron

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties: Mexican standoff

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Imminent partner in Morocco

• The US$2.7 mm cash position at the end of June is in line with our expectations. • Although inflation across the industry and rig availability had complicated and delayed the finalization of a farm-in agreement for Anchois in Morocco, negotiations on partnering are in the final stages. A partner could be announced very soon. • Progress has been made across the portfolio. Onshore Morocco, permitting is under way with drilling now expected to start in early 2024 with up to four wells. Prospects

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties: Benefitting from rising rate environment

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties*: Utah lithium royalty acquisition

Interim Results

Diversified reported strong interim results, with production that was marginally below our estimate more than outweighed by tight cost control to deliver EBITDA ahead of our forecast; we broadly retain our FY23 estimates.

Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Suspended, Under Review) - Interim results; readmission now expected in Q4

Pantheon Resources - Positive Outlook for Pantheon Resources

We believe that the outlook for Pantheon Resources is significantly improving.

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 68p) - Cascadura production update

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 62p) - Cash generation and scale in Trinidad to the fore

Central Asia Metals: H1 2023 Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) results in H1 2023 follow a record prior comparable period, with the swing between the two primarily due to commodity price performance. H1 2023 net revenue of US$93.6m was down 18% YoY, EBITDA of US$48.9m was down 35% YoY. COGS was up 9.8% YoY given global inflationary pressures. Other charges on the P&L were minimal particularly now CAML is debt free. Owing to the timing of tax charges and some unfavourable working capital movements which we expect to be resolved

Bushveld Minerals: H1 results; progress at Vanchem post period end

Bushveld Minerals (“BMN”) has released its results for H1 2023 having already released production of 1,784t at a weighted average cash cost of US$26.6/kgV, with H1 sales of 2,096tV through destocking during the period. Revenue for the period was US$78.4m, with adj EBITDA of US$10.3m and attributable NPAT of -US$14m. The company finished H1 with US$3.7m of cash and US$90.7m of debt. We expect H2 production of 1,992tV, split between 925tV from Vanchem and 1,067tV from Vametco, bringing full year p

LIBERUM: Shanta Gold: Solid beat at interims

Interim results

Bushveld delivered as robust a financial performance as could reasonably be expected in H1 2023 given the operational challenges faced. We are encouraged by the reported progress made at both Vametco and Vanchem since, and vanadium price aside (current prices are soft, and pose a downside risk if they do not recover in-line with our assumptions) we think Bushveld is broadly on course to meet our full-year estimates. But given its stressed balance sheet, concluding the refinancing of its c.US$45m

Chariot - Anchois Partnering in Final Stages

The partnering process at Anchois is now close to a conclusion, with farm-out negotiations in their final stages. The FEED phase of the Anchois gas development was completed in March, with Chariot continuing to make progress across all the Anchois technical and commercial workstreams. Post period, Chariot added the synergistic, low-cost, low-risk Loukos Onshore licence. Loukos Onshore contains several near-term drilling opportunities, which, if successful could lead to fast-tracked gas productio

Value anomaly despite resilient trading