UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN) - H1 2023 results

Rockhopper has released its H1 2023 results, reporting an end June cash holding of US$6.7m, and providing an update on the company’s Sea Lion development activities, and on attempts to enforce its significant Italian arbitration award.

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 30/05/23

Labour to block new UK oil & gas licence awards

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN) - Full year 2022 results

Rockhopper has released its full year 2022 results. These update on the company’s funding position as it goes about achieving full funding and FID on its significant Sea Lion development project in the Falklands, and pursuing its c.EUR190m arbitration award against the Italian government.

FY22 - an important year, now need to consolidate the advances over the next 12 months

Ombrina Mare arbitration - another step forward

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN) - Sea Lion development plan update

Sea Lion upfront development CAPEX materially reduced. Rockhopper has announced an update to its planned development concept for its Sea Lion project in the Falklands (Rockhopper 35%), which is being progressed in partnership with Navitas Petroleum. As previously indicated by Rockhopper, the main change in the new development plan is a reduction in the CAPEX required to get to first oil: this is now expected to be US$1.3bn gross, from US$1.8bn previously, and includes using a leased redeployed F

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 24/03/23

US backtracks on plans to refill SPR

Auctus on Friday - 24/03/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Good flow rate at RCE-4 – The RCE-4 well has been put in production. It has produced at a rate of 728 bbl/d (364 bbl/d net to Arrow) of 28.5 API oil with a 1% water cut from the C7-A and C7 Stringer zones over the last 24 hours. This is a similar result as at RCE-3 (24 h flow rate of 968 bbl/d gross/484 bbl/d net). As was the case at RCE-3, the RCE-4 well is also flowing na

Good progress redefining Sea Lion planned development

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 30/11/22

Winter temperatures forecast for next week

Auctus on Friday - 04/11/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.070 per share: Anshof Reserves estimate well above expectations – RISC estimates that the Anshof field holds 5.2 mmboe of 2P gross reserves (4.2 mmboe net to ADX). This is well ahead of our expectations of ~1.8 mmboe. 85% of the previously estimated mid-case recoverable resources are now classified as 2P reserves. The 2P reserves estimate is based on an assumption of a water oil contact at 1,

Italy triggers Ombrina Mare arbitration award annulment proceedings

Rockhopper Exploration - Italy arbitration update

Italy arbitration update

i3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada site visit review

Last week we attended a site visit to i3’s assets in central Alberta in Canada – the company’s largest producing area. We were left with a favourable impression of the magnitude of the company’s operations in the region, of the professional operational running of these, and of the overall level of opportunity in this well-established oil and gas province.

Reabold Resources - Payment received from Shell

Good news for Reabold, which is set to receive £5.2m of the second tranche payment from Shell imminently for the Victory gas field it acquired last year. The final £4.4m payment is due once the development approval for the field is received from the NSTA in the coming months. These funds will allow RBD to progress its two onshore gas developments in the UK and Italy and consider further distributions to shareholders. Partner funding of these projects remains an issue, but RBD’s risk/reward profi

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed

Tower Resources (TRP LN) - Initiation Report (SPECULATIVE BUY, 0.12p/sh TP)

Cameroon: Ready for the Rig

Pan African Resources - Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit

Morning Note – 4 December 2023

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

Baron Oil - Chuditch PSC – Six-Month Extension

Baron has been granted a further six-month extension to the Chuditch PSC. The end of Contract Year Two will now be 18 June 2024, at which time Baron will need to make a decision on entering Year Three. In the Third and final phase of the PSC, a final investment decision (FID) will be required on an appraisal well targeting the Chuditch discovery (Chuditch-2). Baron continues to make good progress in its discussions with potential funding partners, having previously announced that it is in “advan

Hartshead Resources - Fully Funded Solution

Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr

SP Angel Morning View: Ford takes 8.5% stake in Indonesian nickel project as Automakers swim upstream

Southern Energy - 3Q Results and Comprehensive Update Note

Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in

SP Angel Morning View: Gold powers through $2,100/oz on outlook for Fed rate cuts

SP Angel Morning View: China lithium stocks rally on prospects for market rebound

Andrada Mining: Lab-scale Spodumene concentrate results further advance Andrada’s lithium strategy

Andrada Mining (“Andrada”; “ATM”) has produced its first laboratory scale high-grade spodumene concentrate from mineralised pegmatite at Lithium Ridge (ML133). The material was sourced from the drill core of three holes through two separate pegmatite ore bodies drilled earlier this year. The weighted average feed grade was 1.69% Li2O (15.2% Spodumene), with a 76% Li2O recovery, producing a 6.8% Li2O high-grade spodumene concentrate suitable for lithium carbonate production. A second drill progra

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

Jersey Oil & Gas, Serica Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Neptune Energy, Pantheon Resources, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Kufpec, ORLEN.