Companies: RBG PPC TXP
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$20.00: Drilling success at first well in CPO-5 campaign - The Indico 2 appraisal well encountered 161 feet of net pay and flowed ~ 5,500 bbl/d of 35.2 degrees API light oil, with a 0.1% water cut. This appears to be a relatively low risk appraisal well. The well pays back in less than three months. The Indico 2 well could add imminently 1.5 mbbl/d net production to GeoPark’s ~40 mbbl/d (as of the end of 3Q20), which bodes well for the FY21 production guidance of 40-42 mboe/d. GeoPark expects to spud a well at the Aguila prospect by the end of November. GeoPark will then drill 5-6 wells (including 3-4 exploration wells) at CPO 5 in 1H21. Upon success and depending on oil prices, GeoPark could potentially drill additional development, appraisal or exploration wells at CPO-5 during 2H21. Even after the recent share price appreciation, the shares trade at ~50% discount to our Core NAV and ~25% discount to our 2P NAV of ~US$11 per share. Our unrisked NAV for the 2021 drilling programme is ~US$9.00 per share (mostly associated with Colombia), which represents over 100% of the current share price.
Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; Target price of SEK75.00: Farming out exploration asset in Oman – Tethys is farming out 50% WI in Block 49 to EOG Resources. EOG will also have the option to assume operatorship of the Block and increase its interest to 85% for any operation relating to unconventional hydrocarbon resources. In return EOG will refund all costs incurred on the Block and fund the Thameen-1 exploration well, up to a combined amount of US$15 mm. The parties will retain 50% each of any operations relating to conventional hydrocarbon resources. We view this transaction as an endorsement of the quality of Tethys Oil’s asset. The Thameen prospect is expected to be spudded in December.
IN OTHER NEWS
88 Energy (88E LN): Resources update in Alaska – Total Prospective Resources of 1.77 bn boe have been estimated at the Ice Wine project. The Seabee formation is estimated to hold 1.4 bn bbl.
Alvopetro Energy (ALV CN): Update in Brazil – Gas sales at the Caburé Project was 10.8 mmcf/d (plus 84 bbl/d of condensates) in October. The company held US$2.2 mm in working capital surplus at the end of September.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): 3Q20 results – 3Q20 production in Trinidad was 1,310 bbl/d. The company had net debt of US$14.1 mm at the end of September. Drilling operations are ongoing at the Cascadura Deep-1 prospect.
Aker BP (AKERBP NO): Minor discovery in Norway – Exploration well 6607/12-4 on the PL 127 C licence encountered 3-6 mmboe (recoverable) at the Jurassic/Triassic primary target and 6-18 mmboe at the secondary Lower Cretaceous target.
ConocoPhillips (COP US): Discovery in Norway – Wildcat well 6507/4-1 on licence PL 1009 has encountered 55 180 mmboe of recoverable resources in the Lange Formation (primary target), with moderate but uncertain reservoir quality. The gas/water contact was not encountered.
Premier Oil (PMO LN) and Chrysaor: Operational update – Premier production from January to the end of October was 62.5 mboe/d with FY20 production guidance reduced from 65-70 mboe/d to 61-64 mboe/d on restrictions at Catcher. FY20 capex guidance is now US$325 mm (US$340 mm previously). Net debt at the end of October was US$2.05bn (up from US$1.97 bn at the end of June). Summer maintenance work at Catcher took longer than expected and production had to be shut down in early November due to a fire. Production is expected to restart next week. First gas at Tolmount remains on track for 2Q21. Chrysaor’s production averaged 175 mboe/d to the end of October. Chrysaor’s FY20 forecast remains unchanged at 170-180 mboe/d. The merger transaction between Premier and Chrysaor is expected to complete in 1Q21.
Serinus Energy (SENX LN): 3Q20 results – Production over January to September was 2,415 boe/d including 1,841 boe/d in Romania and the balance in Tunisia. The production exit rate the end of September was 2,211 boe/d including 1,730 boe/d in Romania. The duration of the Satu Mare licence in Romania has been extended by one year until October 2021 with a commitment to drill two new wells. Serinus carried a working capital deficit of US$22.3 mm (including US$15.6 mm due to the EBRD) at the end of September.
Valeura Energy 9VLE CN/VLU LN) : 3Q20 update – 3Q20 production in Turkey was 615 boe/d. The company held US$32.2 mm in working capital at the end of September. The company continues to evaluate inorganic opportunities, spanning Eastern Europe and the greater Mediterranean region. Valeura will only consider assets that would add both cash flow in the near term and opportunities for significant follow-on organic growth in the medium term.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Zenith Energy (ZEN LN: Exiting Azerbaijan – The Contract Exploration Area of the 25-year Rehabilitation, Exploration, Development and Production Sharing Agreement has been terminated.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): Resources update in Israel – Gross 2P reserves at the Karish, Karish North and Tanin fields have been estimated at 3.5 tcf and 99.6 mmbbl of liquids. Approximately 241 mmboe of gross 2C resources associated with Karish North have been upgraded into the 2P category following approval of the Field Development Plan by the Israeli government. Liquids production from the fields is now expected to average 28 mbbl/d over a plateau period of approximately five years. Gross best estimate risked prospective resources across the Karish and Tanin leases and Block 12 are estimated at 2.2 tcf of gas plus 33.4 mmbbl of liquids. The Geological Probability of Success of these prospective resources ranges from approximately 15% to 79%.
Africa Energy (AEC SS, AFE CN): 3Q20 update in South Africa - The Gazania-1 exploration well on Block 2B is now expected to spud in 2Q21. At September 30, 2020, the Company had cash of US$39.1 mm and no debt.
FAR Limited (FAR AU): Selling Senegal – FAR is selling its 13.67% stake in the Sangomar project offshore Senegal to ONGC for US$45 mm in cash. In addition ONGC will repay US$66 mm in working capital. There is also a contingent payment of up to US$55 mm if the oil price increases above US$58/bbl.
Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN): 3Q20 results – 3Q20 net production in Africa and the USA was 56,700 boe/d. FY20 production is expected to be 61,000 - 62,000 boe/d (62,000-70,000 boe/d previously) with US$140-150 mm capex. Net debt at the end of September was US$2.1 bn. Gross production rates at Jubilee averaged ~87,700 bbl/d during the quarter with FPSO uptime of around 98%. TEN production averaged ~49,600 bbl/d gross in 3Q20 with FPSO uptime of 98%. Production in Equatorial Guinea averaged ~33,000 bbl/dd gross.
Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Positive update in Cameroon – The litigation with CHL regarding the payment of a royalty has been settled. Overall, Victoria will have to pay CHL a total of US$12.5 mm at a monthly rate of US$0.09 to US$0.1 mm. The fish that prevented production at the La-1089 well has now been removed. Following the perforation of two sand intervals in the Upper Logbaba formation, the well flowed 19 mmcf/d on test. The company believes that the full potential of the well is likely to exceed the capacity of the plant, which is 20 mmcf/d.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
17/11/2020: Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN) - 3Q20 results
18/11/2020: BWE Energy (BWE LN) - 3Q20 results
19/11/2020: SDX Energy (SDX LN) - Capital Markets Day
Companies: 88E DETNOR AKERBP DETNOR DETNF ARC ALV ALVOF A6Y COP ENOG GPRK KOS PMO SENX TETY TETY TXP VLE VOG
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$20.00: Re-instating dividend and up to 10% Buy back - FY21 production guidance has been set at 40-42 mboe/d excluding any contribution from exploration/appraisal with US$100-120 mm capex at US$40-45/bbl. This includes US$95-115 mm in Colombia (US$30-35 mm for exploration/appraisal) and US$4-5 mm in Ecuador. FY21 operating net back is guided at US$210-280 mm. 3-4 exploration wells will be drilled at CPO-5, some of which will test the continuity of the Guadalupe play encountered on Llanos-34 into CPO-5. The initial results of the Indico-2 well already look promising with more details expected imminently.1-2 exploration wells could be drilled in Ecuador in 2H21/early 2022. The company is re-instating its quarterly dividend set at US$0.0206 per share representing ~1.1% annual yield. An exceptional dividend of the same amount will be paid in 4Q20. GeoPark is also launching a share buyback programme for up to 10% of the issued shares. With shareholder distributions now re-instated, the very attractive investment profile of GeoPark (with production growth, material exploration upside, balance sheet strength and shareholder distribution) has been completely restored to what it was pre COVID-19 while oil prices continue to oscillate around US$40/bbl. This showcases the resilience of GeoPark’s assets and business model. The shares trade at ~60% discount to our Core NAV and ~40% discount to our 2P NAV of ~US$11 per share. Our unrisked NAV for the 2021 drilling programme is ~US$9.00 per share, which represents over 100% of the current share price. Most importantly, and contrary to most peers, the programme is diversified across multiple wells and relatively low risk.
Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; Target price of SEK75.00: Adding near term exploration – The 3Q20 financials were inconsequential with negative working capital movements to be recovered in 4Q20. The company held US$48 mm in cash at the end of the period; which is in line with our expectations. The 4Q20 capex at Block 3 & 4 is likely to be similar to 3Q20 capex (U$6.5 mm), which is lower than what we were anticipating (US$10 mm). The main near term focus continues to be the upcoming drilling of the Thameen prospect on Block 49. Our unrisked NAV for the Thameen prospect, assuming 15 mmbbl resources, is SEK17 per share (~50% of the current share price). The Anan-1 well on blocks 3 & 4), to be drilled in 4Q20, is a near field exploration well for which we are not carrying any value yet. It is relatively low risk but could have a small positive impact on the company reserves. The current share price represents EV/DACF multiples of only 1.8x for 2020 and 1.7x for 2021 and the core dividend implies>5% yield. Our target price of SEK75 per share has been set close to our ReNAV.
IN OTHER NEWS
Frontera Energy (FEC CN): 3Q20 results – 3Q20 production in Colombia was 43,202 boe/d. The company held US$421 mm in cash (including US$162 mm in restricted cash) with debt of US$557 mm at the end of September. Working capital at the end of September was negative (-US$79 mm).
i3 Energy (I3E LN): Production update in Canada – Group production from the Gain and Toscana’s assets during October averaged 9,407 boe/d (61% gas, 39% liquids). A first dividend is expected to be declared and paid in 1Q21 with up to 30% of cashflow being distributed. The company anticipates that the dividend yield will be >10% on an annual basis.
Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update in Brazil and resources update in Oman – Production in October was 2,971 boe/d. The award of Block 70 in Oman to Maha has now been approved by the authorities. The Block is estimated to hold 1 mmbbl of 2P reserves and 22 mmbbl of 2C contingent resources of heavy oil.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): 3Q20 results – 3Q20 production in Colombia was 44,305 boe/d. 4Q20 production is expected to be 45,500-47,500 boe/d with US$35-45 mm capex. At Aguas Blancas, the rates of the AB-11 and AB-24 exploration wells did not meet minimum thresholds to warrant the development of the Southern Aguas Blancas area at current oil pricing. In 2021, Parex expects to produce 47,000-49,000 boe/d with US$165-$185 mm capex. The 2021 share buyback programme is budgeted at $155 million at US$45/bbl with YE21 working capital forecasted at US$335 mm (YE20e: US$330 mm).
Touchstone Exploration (TXL LN/CN): Raising new equity – Touchstone is raising US$30 mm of new equity priced at £0.95 per share. The proceeds will be used for the Cascadura surface facility development, the testing of Chinook-1 and the drilling of the Chonook-1 and the Royston exploration wells.
Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN): Update in the UK North Sea – Phase 1 of the SNS core project is on schedule for first gas in 3Q21 with drilling due to start in 1Q21.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): 3Q20 results – 3Q20 gross production at Atrush was 46.1 mbbl/d. FY20 gross production guidance remains 44-50 mbbl/d At the end of September, the company held US$29.9 mm in working capital.
Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN) & Impact Oil & Gas: Transactions in South Africa – Impact Africa is farming-out of a 50% WI and in the Transkei & Algoa exploration right, offshore South Africa to Shell. Shell has also been granted the option to acquire an additional 5% working interest should the joint venture elect to move into the Third Renewal Period, which is expected to be approximately 2024. Impact is acquiring 90% WI of Area 2 from Silver Wave Energy. Being immediately east and adjacent to Impact’s Transkei & Algoa Blocks, Area 2 compliments Impact’s existing position by extending the entire length of the ultra-deep-water part of the Transkei margin. Together, the Transkei & Algoa Blocks and Area 2 cover over 124,000 km2, with plays extending across both blocks. Africa Oil holds 31.10% of Impact.
Attis Oil & Gas (AOGL LN): Becoming a Helium business – Attis is merging with Helium One. Attis shareholder will be issued 1 Helium One share for every 236 Attis shares. The merger values Attis at £1.76 mm, and Helium at £6.0 mm. Helium One has Helium exploration assets in Tanzania. Helium One will be admitted to AIM in December subject to minimum fundraise of £5 mm.
BWE Energy (BWE NO): Update in Gabon – 3Q20 production at Dussafu was 15,449 bbl/d. Production cost (excluding royalties) was US$19.6/bbl. This includes approximately US$2 mm of additional costs related to the COVID-19 pandemic in the quarter. BWE has also acquired two jack-up drilling rigs for US$14.5 mm for the development of Hibiscus. A jack-up conversion is expected to reduce gross capital investments by ~US$100 mm compared to previous development plan.
Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): 3Q20 results – 3Q20 production in Gabon was 5,064 bbl/d. Vaalco held US$42 mm in cash (and no debt) at the end of September. 4Q20 WI production is expected to be between 5,300 bbl/d and 5,750 bbl/d.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
09/11/2020: Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN) – 3Q20 results
Companies: EGY AOI FEC GPRK I3E 7M7 0GEA MAHAA PXT 0VH4 SNM 3B8 SNM SHASF TETY TETY TXP
Cora Gold (CORA): Corp | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG): Corp | Touchstone Exploration (TXP): Corp
Companies: IOG TXP CORA
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB LN) – Shell raises its dividend following upbeat Q3 results | Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN): Q3 2020 results, healthy dividend maintained | Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): September 2020 payment received from the KRG | Lekoil* (LEK LN): Strategic Alliance Agreement signed with NAMCOR | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN): Cascadura Deep-1 well spudded ahead of schedule | Zoltav Resources* (ZOL LN) H1 2020 results, strong operational progress
Companies: RDSB DGOC GKP LEK TXP ZOL
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$20 per share: Drilling at CPO-5 has started - The 3Q20 operating update did not contain any surprises, with overall production increasing by 5% vs the previous quarter, reflecting higher sales in Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Importantly, gross production at Llanos-34 is back to 60 mbbl/d with some work-over backlog and development drilling having restarted. Overall net production (across all of GeoPark’s assets) was 40 mboe/d at the end of September and FY20 production guidance of 40-42 mboe/d has been reiterated (2H20 capex guidance of US$25-35 mm). Drilling at CPO-5 (GeoPark WI: 30%) has now commenced with the Indico-2 appraisal well. With the Indico-1 well still producing 5,169 bbl/d since first oil in December 2018, Indico-2 could add 60% to CPO-5 overall production by YE20 in a success case. GeoPark will publish its 2021 capex budget on 4 November. We view this as an important event as this will provide further visibility on a very exciting drilling programme with 5-7 wells at CPO-5 and 1-2 wells in Ecuador. The exploration program for 2021 will likely test the continuity of the Guadalupe play encountered on Llanos-34 into CPO-5.
Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; Target price SEK75.00 per share: Initiating coverage - Tethys Oil is a well-funded, dividend-paying, Sweden listed US$160 mm market cap E&P with ~25 mmbbl 2P reserves in Oman and ~10 mbbl/d WI production. The company stands apart from its peers in three principal ways: (1) It has achieved “textbook” execution, turning what was initially a small uncommercial onshore discovery on a tiny portion of Blocks 3&4 into a large field that has already produced ~100 mmbbl with a further ~120 mmbbl 3P reserves. (2) The production is very cash generative even at US$40/bbl. At US$45/bbl, even at the currently OPEC constrained production rate, operating cashflow funds all development plus some exploration activities and allows Tethys to pay a 5% dividend. (3) Tethys is conservatively run with US$60 mm in cash and no debt. Historically, the story was about steady y-on-y production, reserves and dividend growth. While these features are still present, an investment in Tethys now also offers diverse exposure to high impact exploration with drilling activities on recently acquired onshore blocks expected to start before YE20. Our target price of SEK75 per share reflects ReNAV and implies over 70% upside.
IN OTHER NEWS
Alvopetro (ALV CN): Production update in Brazil – 3Q20 sales were 1,764 boe/d at the Caburé Project.
Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production and capex guidance update – FY20 production (mostly in Brazil) is expected to stand at 3,700–4,000 boe/d (4,000-5,000 boe/d previously). The FY20 capex budget increased by US$8.7 mm to US$24 mm. YE20 production is expected to be 5,200 – 5,700 boe/d.
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Resources update in Alaska – The Kuparuk formation at the Talitha project is estimated to contain 1.4 billion bbl of oil in place (OIP) and a Prospective Resource of 341 mmbbl as a most likely case.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN): Discovery in Trinidad – The Chinook well encountered 589 net feet of gas pay in three unique thrust sheets in the Herrera sands. Additional natural gas pay of ~20 net feet was encountered in the shallower Cruse formation. Completion and testing of the well is expected to be undertaken in 1Q21.
Trinity Exploration and Production (TRIN LN): 3Q20 operational update in Trinidad – 3Q20 production was 3,135 bbl/d. The company held US$22.2 mm in cash as at 30 September. FY20 production guidance remains 3,100-3,300 bbl/d.
Aker Bp (AKERBP NO): 3Q20 update in Norway – Aker BP produced 201.6 mboe/d in 3Q20. The FY20 production guidance of 205-220 mboe/d is reiterated.
UK Oil & Gas (UKOG LN), Angus Energy (ANG LN) and Egdon Resources (EDR LN): Onshore UK licence relinquished – Long-reach/shallow wells at the Holmwood prospects are neither technically viable nor economically feasible. The licence has been relinquished.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN): Operating update in Kazakhstan – Production at the MJF structure averaged ~1,340 bbl/d. The completion of maintenance activities, the return to production of Well 141 and the installation of a pump at Well 151 are expected to increase production capacity to 2,200 - 2,500 bbl/d.
Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Ukraine update – 3Q20 production in Ukraine was 4,629 boe/d. The company held US$55.7 mm in cash at the end of September.
Kosmos Energy (KOS US/ LN): RBL Redetermination – Kosmos’ RBL credit facility has been redetermined with US$1.32 billion, a reduction of US$130 mm from the previous drawn amount of US$1.45 billion. Repayment of the reduction in borrowing base will be made from available liquidity in 4Q20.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
20/10/2020: Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN) - Webinar
Companies: TXP ALV ALVOF A6Y DETNOR AKERBP DETNOR DETNF ARC RO1 CASP ROXIF GPRK KOS 7M7 0GEA MAHAA PANR P3K PTHRF TETY TETY UKOG 0UK UKLLF
Bango (BGO): Corp Bango scales up Far East operations | discoverIE (DSCV): Corp Resilient H1, improving outlook, dividends returning | LPA Group (LPA): Corp Prestigious Siemens project award | Touchstone Exploration (TXP): Corp Chinook announced as another significant gas discovery
Companies: DSCV LPA TXP BGO
Another impressive drilling result from Touchstone, which has announced a significant gas discovery with the Chinook-1 well on the Ortoire block, onshore Trinidad; its third in a row. This well exceeded pre-drill expectations again and further confirms the accuracy of the company’s geological model. This not only de-risks the upcoming Cascadura Deep and Royston prospects but also opens up significant follow-on exploration opportunities. Touchstone has already identified 21 additional prospects on the Ortoire block representing five years of drilling inventory, for which we currently give zero value…this story has legs!
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Solid results from Touchstone, which has spud its latest exploration well on the prolific Ortoire block, Chinook-1. Success would provide another major uplift to the valuation and the growth outlook. Production inevitably took a back seat to this drilling programme, but impressive cost reductions and cash preservation efforts leave Touchstone in a healthy financial position with ~US$15m of available liquidity. Touchstone remains not only an exciting high-impact exploration play but also a strong production and cash flow growth story as it looks to rapidly bring its material low-cost gas/condensate discoveries onshore Trinidad into production.
PetroTal (PTAL LN)C; Target price £0.45: Field shut down– PetroTal has shut down the Bretana Field as a pre-emptive measure due to civil unrest outside the oil field camp. Bretana had restarted production on the 15th of July. An altercation between the police and protestors resulted in a dozen injuries and three deaths among the protestors. The civil unrest has been conducted by the same group that took over Petroperu’s Pump Station No.5. PetroTal indicated that this group is not from the Bretana area and that it is seeking Government assistance against the COVID-19 crisis. The community’s complaints are not related to PetroTal but rather are between the community and the Government. PetroTal will keep the field closed until things settle down and the local district prosecutor files its report, which is expected in the next few days. We estimate PetroTal’s cash position at ~US$20 mm at the end of June. PetroTal has produced ~0.2 mmbbl and delivered a total of 0.08 mm bbl to Iquitos and to the Petroperu pipeline equating to ~US$1.6 mm of cash inflow (net of transport and barging cost) since the field restarted mid-July. While the field is shutdown, we estimated PetroTal cash costs at ~ US$1 mm per month (including US$0.6 mm at the field). The share price is down over 12% on the announcement to ~£0.12 per share. We believe that a return to normality would unlock £0.30 per share of value for the company based on its 2P reserves only.
IN OTHER NEWS
Alvopetro Energy (ALV CN): 2Q20 results | Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN): Update in the Bahamas and Trinidad | Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN): 2Q20 results and dividend increase | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN)C: 2Q20 update in Trinidad
Condor Petroleum (CPI CN): 2Q20 results | Deltic Energy (DELT LN): Increased prospectivity in the UK | Reabold Resources (RBD LN): Not acquiring Deltic Energy | Serinus Energy (SENX LN): 2Q20 results | Valeura Energy (VLU LN/VLE CN): 2Q20 results
FORMER SOVIET UNION
JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): 1H20 results
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): 2Q20 results | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN/CN): 2Q20 results
Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): 2Q20 results | Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): Operating update in Tanzania
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
21/08/2020: Premier Oil (PMO LN) – 2Q20 results
Companies: VLU TXP TGL 0VH4 SEN RBD PTAL DGOC BPC ALV AOI
Chevron (CVX US) buying Noble Energy (NBL US) – Chevron is buying Noble for US$5 bn in shares. Chevron is also assuming Noble’s US$8 bn debt. The premium paid by Chevron on Noble’s share price is only 7% compares to the last trading day before the acquisition was announced.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): Material reserves estimates in Trinidad – Touchstone’s WI 2P reserves at Cascadura are estimated at 45 mmboe (including 234 bcf) with 3P reserves of 73 mmboe (including 381 bcf). Net peak production from Cascadura is forecasted at 15.1 mboe/d in the 2P case (22.6 mboe/d in the 3P case). 2P NPV10 in the 1P, 2P and 3P cases are respectively US$288 mm, US$519 mm and US$803 mm with net development costs of US$11.6-15.8 mm.
Equinor (EQNR NO): 2Q20 results – Adjusted net earnings were US$0.65 bn with 2,011 mbooe/d production over the period. The company has declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.09 per share in line with guidance.
Repsol (REP SM): 1H20 results – 1H20 production was 675 mboe/d with adjusted net income over the period of EUR0.2 bn and net debt at the end of June of EUR4.0 bn (down EUR0.5 bn compared to the end of March).
UK Oil & Gas (UKOG LN): Entry into Turkey – UK Oil & Gas is looking to acquire 50% non-operated working interest in the 305 km² Resan Licence in Eastern Turkey from Aladdin Middle East. Two geological targets have been identified within the Licence's Cretaceous Mardin limestones. The undeveloped Basur oil discovery and the Resan missed oil pay opportunity contain an aggregate unrisked gross mean oil in place of ~253 mmbbl with an upside case at 495 mmbbl. An undrilled exploration target in the shallower Garzan limestones adds further unrisked upside Oil in Place potential of 68-112 mmbbl. To earn its 50% interest in the Licence, UK Oil & Gas will fund 100% of the first of 5 commitment wells in the Licence's 5-year exploration term, together with a small 2D seismic survey with an expected cost of US$1.0-$1.5 mm. UKOG's net expenditure for the one well plus seismic programme is capped at US$5 mm maximum expenditure.
Global Petroleum (GBP LN/AU): Resources estimates in Namibia – A total of 881 mmbbl of unrisked gross Prospective Resources (Best Estimate) has been estimated in PEL0094 in two prospects, of which 687 mmbbl barrels are net to Global. The associated geological chance of success is 17-19%.
Maurel & Prom (MAU FP): 2Q20 update in Africa – 2Q WI production was 24,919 boe/d including 4,003 bbl/d in Angola, 16,675 bbl/d in Gabon and 24.4 mmcf/d in Tanzania.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
29/07/2020: Seplat Petroleum (SEPL LN) – 2Q20 results
29/07/2020: Lundin Energy (LUNE SS) – 2Q20 results
29/07/2020: Tullow Oil (TLW LN) – 1H20 update
30/07/2020: Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN) – 2Q20 results
30/07/2020: DNO ASA (DNO NO) – 2Q20 results
30/07/2020: ENI (ENI IM) – 2Q20 results
Companies: 0F6L UKOG REP DNQ NBL TXP 0R2Q
Barkby Group (BARK): Corp | eve Sleep (EVE): Corp | Iofina (IOF): Corp | Quixant (QXT): Corp | Touchstone Exploration (TXP): Corp | Tristel (TSTL): Corp
Companies: IOF QXT TSTL TXP EVE BARK
Touchstone’s independent reserves evaluation confirms the massive potential of the Cascadura discovery on the Ortoire block. These will be highly profitable barrels too. Their rapid development will provide a material step change in Touchstone’s production and cash flow via a multi-year, low cost development programme. We are raising our price target and risked-NAV by a third, from 68p to 91p/sh, with plenty of further upside potential still on offer from Touchstone’s imminent exploration programme restart.
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The Prime Minister vowed last week to “restore Britain's position as the foremost naval power in Europe” and promised an extra £16.5bn in defence spending over the next four years. Mr Johnson expects this investment to “spur a renaissance of British shipbuilding across the UK”, and specifically mentioned five locations where this would occur, including Belfast and Appledore – the location of InfraStrata's shipyards. Other supportive policy initiatives emanating from the government include Mr Johnson's pledge in October that offshore wind will power every home in the country by 2030. We believe this demonstrable support from the highest level of government vindicates InfraStrata's strategy, and demonstrates the significant opportunities available to the company as it bids on numerous shipbuilding and fabrication contracts. We reaffirm our Buy rating.
Companies: InfraStrata plc
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$20.00: Divesting non-core asset in Brazil - GeoPark is selling its 10% non-operated working interest in the Manati gas field in Brazil to Gas Bridge for US$27 mm. We do not see much upside to the Brazilian asset (in terms of growing reserves or through exploration opportunities) and this divestment may allow GeoPark to reallocate resources to its core operations. We would rather see management remaining focused on deploying capital on higher return assets such as Colombia and Ecuador. Even after this week’s share price appreciation, our Core NAV continues to be 60% above the current share price. Our unrisked NAV for the 2021 drilling programme is ~US$9.00 per share, which represents ~90% of the current share price.
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: 2021 will be a transformational year - 2020 has been a difficult year for the oil and gas industry and 2021 is a turning point for Panoro. In Gabon, development activities at Ruche are expected to return to normal with gross production set to grow to 20 mbbl/d. The company will also appraise Hibiscus to test the 155 mmbbl upside case (=2x existing 2P reserves). The development of Hibiscus is expected to be sanctioned. Importantly, while the existing FPSO has a nominal oil processing capacity of 45-45 mbbl/d, processing expansion is possible which allows for a potential oil production plateau of 70 mbbl/d. We estimate the value of Panoro’s reserves in Dussafu at NOK10.40 per share. Derisking the contingent resources in Gabon could add ~NOK3 per share. We estimate that the upside at Hibiscus has a further unrisked NAV of ~NOK10 per share for a total unrisked NAV of NOK23 per share for the discovered and “to be appraised” volumes in Gabon. Overall, including Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia, we estimate the unrisked value of the 2021 activities at NOK30 per share; which represents 2.3x the share price. Our target price of NOK23 per share has been set close to our ReNAV.
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)c; Target price of £0.35: Low cost. Quickly scalable. High impact, quality exploration – Pharos is a £ mm market cap, ~12 mboe/d oil producer that acquired the Egyptian assets of Merlon in 2019. Under the stewardship of a blue-chip management team that turned Cairn Energy from a micro-cap into a successful E&P that returned US$4.5 bn to shareholders, Pharos has undergone a multi-faceted transformation, enhancing governance and rebalancing its asset portfolio. Given the recent macro challenges, this process appears to have gone unnoticed by many investors. Pharos now holds ~50 mmboe 2P reserves in Egypt and Vietnam. Vietnam provides stable cash flows even at low oil prices. Egypt production can be increased rapidly (up to x2.5 to 13 mbbl/d) with additional investment. Pharos also holds world class exploration assets in Israel, Egypt and Vietnam. With a healthy balance sheet (cash: ~US$38 mm, net debt:~US$36 mm), Pharos’ shares trade at EV/DACF multiples of 5,000 bbl/d, increasing production from the Shaikan field by~15%. FY20 gross production is expected to be at the upper end of the 35,000 – 36,000 bbl/d production guidance, with the field currently producing at ~39,000 bbl/d.
LEKOIL (LEK LN): Requisition from large shareholder to change the board of the company - LEKOIL has received a letter from Metallon, holding 15.4% of the company, requisitioning an extraordinary general meeting to vote on the replacement of the Chairman and the appointment of Michael Ajukwu, Thomas Richardson and George Maxwell as directors of the company.
Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN): 3Q20 results - 3Q20 WI production in Tanzania was 60.9 mmcf/d. At the end of September, Orca held US$79.2 mmm in working capital including US$98.5 mm in cash and long-term debt
of US$54.2 mm.
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Capital Market Day – 2020 production to date averages 75 mbbl/d with FY20 production guidance of 73-77 mbbl/d. Assuming an oil price of US$45/bbl in 2021 and US$55/bbl flat nominal from 2022 onwards, Tullow expects to generate US$7 bn of operating cashflow over the next 10 years with capex of US$2.7 bn. The first phase of investment will start in 2Q21 with the commencement of a multi-well drilling programme in Ghana. In Suriname, the prospective Goliathberg-Voltzberg North-1 well will spud in 1Q21.
Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Positive licence update in Cameroon – The duration of the onshore Matanda licence has been extended by one year to December 2021. The gross unrisked prospective resources are now estimated at 1,196 bcf, up from 903 bcf previously. 19 gas prospects haven identified in shallower Tertiary-aged reservoirs, plus 7 prospects in deeper, Cretaceous-aged prospects. The Company believes the largest of these prospects has mean unrisked Prospective Resources of >65 bcf, with geological Chance of Success estimated at >40%.
Companies: VOG BPC ENQ GPRK JOG JYOGF TPC1 7M7 0GEA MAHAA PEN PHAR RBD REP SENX TLW
• In an Important development, PetroTal has signed a contract with an international oil trader for a pilot shipment to export 0.12 mmbbl into the Atlantic region using the Amazon river through Brazil. The shipment will be sold FOB Bretana, priced at the forward month Brent ICE price, and paid within two weeks of loading at Bretana. There are no subsequent oil price adjustments.
• At November 19, 2020, PetroTal had cash resources of US$9.8 mm, with accounts payable and accrued liabilities of ~US$39 mm, a reduction of ~US$11 mm from the end of 2Q20. The company has been paid US$5.5 mm for delivery of 0.192 mm bbl of oil to Petroperu in October. Production is constrained to ~5,000 bbl/d pending the reopening of the export pipeline.
• We understand that the pilot should start in December. This would not only provide ~US$5 mm in cash to PetroTal but also allow production to return to recent levels (11.5 mbbl/d), effectively unlocking the fundamental value of the asset.
Balance sheet considerations
The potential financial derivative liability has been reduced from US$22.5 mm at the end of June to US$17 mm at the end of September. Of the US$39 mm current payables 46% are not due before 2021 and we note that the company still holds US$13 mm in account receivables and US$4.7 mm in inventory.
Financials on “a back to normal” scenario with flat production
We are now assuming production remains constrained at 5 mbbl/d over 4Q20 with minimum capex with cashflow and receivables being used to repay the due payables over the period.
On production of just ~11.5 mbbl/d during 2021, we estimate operating cashflow of US$85 mm at US$48/bbl Brent. This would result in free cashflow of >US$40 mm assuming capex of US$20 mm to maintain production and US$20 mm to repay the remaining payables. This compares with a current market cap of just US$75 mm, suggesting FY21 free cashflow would represent over 50% of the current market cap in a no growth scenario assuming production can be exported.
Our target price of £0.45 per share represents 6x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
EQTEC has announced today that the Company and Scott Bros. Enterprises Limited have agreed to extend the exclusivity period of the Billingham MOU until 18 December 2020. The Billingham MOU has been subject to previous extensions, as announced on 23 October 2019, 23 June 2020 and 18 September 2020.
Companies: EQTEC PLC (KEU1:FRA)EQTEC PLC (EQT:LON)
Pantheon announced that is has contracted a rig to drill the Talitha well and that drilling operations are expected to commence in January 2021. The well will target four independent reservoirs, in three separate trapping sequences, which the company estimates has the potential to contain in the region of a billion barrels of recoverable oil, although ongoing work is required to formally delineate the full potential of the targets.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Parkmead’s portfolio has evolved to the point where it is now a full-cycle E&P company with a low-cost Dutch production base and a broad spectrum of high-quality UK growth opportunities, encompassing material development projects and an attractive range of risk/reward exploration. Recently, it has diversified into renewables, future proofing its equity story and opening up a new ‘investor-friendly’ avenue of growth. A core strength of this management team is its commercial acumen and portfolio-driven approach to optimising value. Parkmead has been in portfolio construction mode to date but is now well positioned to start crystallising its intrinsic value. We initiate with a risked-NAV based price target of 155p/sh. Investors would do well to get on-board with a management team that has a strong track record of delivering shareholder value.
Companies: Parkmead Group PLC
Salt Lake Potash's AGM update reported that the Lake Way project is now 74% complete. Construction of the process plant is on-schedule with practical completion and first SOP production planned for Q1/21. Drawdown of the Senior Facility Agreement funds and repayment of the Taurus bridge loan is expected soon.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Limited
Oil rose to the highest in nearly three months with positive Covid-19 vaccine developments paving the way for a more sustained recovery in oil demand.
Futures rose 5% in New York this week for a third straight weekly gain as Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE requested emergency authorisation of their Covid vaccine Friday. Moderna Inc also released positive interim results from a final-stage trial and said it is close to seeking emergency authorisation. Still, further gains were limited by broader market declines amid a dispute between the White House and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending programmes.
Even with vaccines on the horizon, a recovery in oil demand faces obstacles with governments under pressure to tighten restrictions and curb the spread of the virus. UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson's officials are considering tougher pandemic rules placed on broader regions of England next month after a national lockdown is set to end and the country returns to its tiered system. Meanwhile, the shift toward working from home may have a lasting chill on gasoline demand, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George.
The recent climb in headline prices has been accompanied by significant moves in timespreads, where traders bet on the price of oil in different months. The spread between West Texas Intermediate for December 2021 delivery and the following month moved to backwardation, while the closely watched gap between December 2021 and 2022 WTI contracts is close to also flipping.
West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, which expired Friday, rose 41 cents to settle at $42.15 a barrel.
The January contract rose 52 cents to end the session at $42.42 a barrel.
Brent for January settlement gained 76 cents to $44.96 a barrel. The contract rose 5.1% this week.
Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine could be the first to be cleared for use, but first it must undergo a thorough vetting. The filing could enable its use by the middle to the end of December, the companies said in a statement. Yet, it could take at least three weeks for a US Food and Drug Administration decision.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Jersey Oil & Gas announced today that is has entered into an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of CIECO V&C (UK) Limited, which is currently owned by two international entities headquartered in Japan. The acquisition secures an additional 12% working interest in Licence P2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d), which provides Jersey Oil & Gas with 100% of the licence. The licence contains the majority of the Verbier oil discovery in addition to three drill ready prospects: Verbier Deep, Wengen and Cortina. The acquired entity has approximately £15M of tax losses which will provide value to Jersey Oil & Gas. Consideration will consist of £150k in cash and contingent payments of i) £1.5M upon field development plan approval of Verbier within P2170 (as already discovered) by the OGA ii) £1.0M upon the 1st anniversary of attainment of first oil. The acquisition is conditional on OGA approval amongst other technicalities, which we do not anticipate will be problematic. The acquired entity will be free of debts.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: Revisiting Gabon - BW Energy provided an update on Dussafu with FY20 production guidance expectation marginally below previous guidance (14.25 mbbl/d versus 15 16 mbbl/d) due to COVID-19 restrictions and OPEC+ quotas. This results in FY20 opex expected to be US$19/bbl which is slightly above the previous guidance of US$17-18/bbl. The drilling of DTM-7H, and the tie-in of DTM-6H and -7H, has been deferred to mid-2021 with first oil expected in 3Q21 and our estimate of the timing of the field production ramp-up has been delayed by one quarter. BWE continues to expect production from the Dussafu area to reach >30 mbbl/d in 2023 and ~40 mbbl/d in 2024. The Hibiscus development is expected to offer 15% IRR at
Companies: TGL TGA 88E FEC JSE LUPE LUNE LNDNF LYV NOG GB_NTRM NSTRY 3NO PANR P3K PTHRF PTAL TETY TETY AOI ENOG PEN SDX EGY
Acquisition of CIECO P2170 interest
Companies: JOG JYOGF TPC1
Low cost. Quickly scalable. High impact, quality exploration
Pharos is a £55 mm market cap ~12 mboe/d oil producer that acquired the Egyptian assets of Merlon in 2019. Under the stewardship of a blue-chip management team that turned Cairn Energy from a micro cap into a successful E&P that returned US$4.5 bn to shareholders, Pharos has undergone a multi-faceted transformation, enhancing governance and rebalancing its asset portfolio. Given the recent macro challenges, this process appears to have gone unnoticed by many investors. Pharos now holds ~50 mmboe 2P reserves in Egypt and Vietnam. Vietnam provides stable cash flows even at low oil prices. Egypt production can be increased rapidly (up to x2.5 to 13 mbbl/d) with additional investment. Pharos also holds world class exploration assets in Israel, Egypt and Vietnam.
Cash engine in Vietnam
Pharos produces ~6 mboe/d from two offshore assets with ~21 mmboe 2P reserves and 13 mmboe 2C resources (WI). The key asset is the TGT field (29.7% WI) with 24 mmboe 2P reserves plus 2C resources implying just 25% recovery factor. At US$22/bbl for Brent, production can be maintained flat. At US$40/bbl, the assets generate Free Cash Flow of US$20-25 mm per year. 6 new wells will be drilled from 4Q21 to grow production to 8 mboe/d. Obtaining approval to drill 9 more wells would add 9 mmboe WI 2P.
Scalable growth in Egypt
Pharos produces ~5.5 mbbl/d from the El Fayum licence (Western Desert) with 29 mmbbl 2P and 23 mmbbl 2C. A 3D campaign and >120 wells have improved the understanding of the geology where production growth is driven by waterflood and drilling. The pace of growth is proportional to the number of rigs directly reflecting the available funding. Without further investment, the assets break even at current oil prices but production declines fast. Four rigs and early investment maximizes value but requires additional funding or a partner.
High quality exploration
At El Fayum, there are 108 mmbbl prospective resources across the shallow horizons and the deeper Pre-Khatira play. North Beni Suef is also a promising licence. Israel is about chasing giant structures (Zhor/Tamar plays). In Vietnam, Pharos holds interests in the Phu Khanh frontier basin.
With a healthy balance sheet (cash: ~US$38 mm, net debt:~US$36 mm), Pharos’ shares trade at EV/DACF multiples of
Companies: Pharos Energy PLC
Trifast has reported FY21 interim results that highlight the tough operating conditions with material falls in revenue, and operating leverage driving sharp reductions in profitability. The c.£16m equity raise helped to cushion the financial impact and the ongoing recovery exiting the first half provides some optimism for the Group heading in to FY22. We reinstate our buy recommendation.
Companies: Trifast plc (TRI:LON)Trifast plc (25D:BER)
Today's news & views, plus announcements from KGF, MRO, UU, BAB, BRW, FUTR, GNS, HICL, LIO, AEXG, FUL, KWS
Companies: AEX GNS HICL
While a three-year plan would have been more than enough, the new CEO delivered a roadmap for the next ten years. The idea is to show how Tullow’s existing assets can generate sufficient cash for the next decade. Discipline is key, with deleveraging as top priority. Spending is on a tight budget ($2.7bn for the next ten years) with 90% of it going to develop the West African assets. The quest to regain investors’ trust continues.
Companies: Tullow Oil plc