Vaalco Energy (EGY LN): Acquisitions confirmed offshore Gabon | Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): Relinquishment of Service Contracts, offshore Philippines | Mosman Oil & Gas* (MSMN LN): Successful testing at Falcon-1, step change in production
Companies: EGY JSE MSMN
Vaalco Energy (EGY LN): Q3 2020 results, strong production performance
Companies: VAALCO Energy, Inc.
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price £0.45 per share: Resumption of production - PetroTal has recommenced production at Bretana with current production of 11 mbbl/d. This followed multiple agreements between the Peruvian government and local communities. Although the export pipeline is not open yet, Petroperu has been carrying out maintenance activities. The government is expecting the pipeline to be re-opened in time to receive Bretana’s oil production. Meanwhile PetroTal is also selling ~1.3 mbbl/d to Iquitos. We view the resumption of production as an important step, demonstrating the support of the local communities. This is encouraging for the forthcoming re-opening of the export pipeline. We have factored in our forecasts the delays associated with the prolonged shut-in with only one development well to be drilled in 4Q20 boosting production from December. With an inventory of eight new oil wells to develop the 2P reserves, we anticipate the company to ramp-up development activities in 2021. We are currently assuming FY21 cash capex of US$40 mm (including the repayment of payables) to grow production to ~14 mbbl/d by YE21 (12.5 mbbl/d in average over 2021). Assuming production of just ~10 mbbl/d during 4Q20, this would lead to FY20 operating cash flow (before working capital movement) of ~US$30 mm (including ~US$15 mm in 4Q20), resulting in EV/DACF multiples of ~4x in 2020. On only ~12.5 mbbl/d production in 2021, we estimate EV/DACF of ~1x at US$48/bbl. Our Core NAV for the company at a Brent price of US$45/bbl (flat, no escalation) and 12.5 mbbl/d production in 2021 (declining thereafter) is £0.25 per share, representing >120% upside to the current level. At US$50/bbl for Brent, our Core NAV would be £0.35 per share (x3.5 current level).
IN OTHER NEWS
Bahamas Petroleum (BPC LN): Update in Trinidad and the Bahamas and US$12 mm placing– Drilling at the Perseverance #1 well in the Bahamas is expected to start in late 2020. The well is targeting recoverable P50 prospective oil resources of 0.77 bn bbl with an upside of 1.44 bn bbl. In Trinidad, the work programmes look to increase production from 400-450 bbl/dd to 500 bbl/d by YE20 and to 2,500 bbl/dd by YE21. In a separate statement, BPC indicated that the unrisked NPV10 of the Perseverance prospect is estimated at >US$2.5 bn at US$40/bbl. Bahamas Petroleum has also raised US$12 mm of new equity priced at 2p per share representing 30% discount to the previous close. The transaction to divest 100% WI in the Inniss-Trinity asset will not complete and BPC will retain the asset.
Echo Energy (ECHO LN): 1H20 results – 1H20 production in Argentina was ~2,150 boe/d. The company held US$1.2 mm in cash at the end of the period with a loan of US$24.2 mm.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY US): Selling Colombia onshore to Carlyle - Occidental Petroleum is selling its onshore assets in Colombia to Carlyle for US$825 mm. The Colombia assets sale includes the company’s operations and working interests in the Llanos Norte, Middle Magdalena and Putumayo Basins.
Total (FP FP): Exiting Foz do Amazonas in Brazil – Total is transferring to Petrobras its equity interest in five exploration blocks in the Foz do Amazonas Basin, located 120 kilometers offshore Brazil.
Cairn Energy (CNE LN): 1H20 results – 1H20 net oil production was 22.4 mbbl/d. The company held US$84 mm in cash at the end of June and no debt. FY20 net production guidance has been set at 21-23 mbbl/d in the upper range of the previous guidance of 19-23 mbbl/d with US$135 mm capex. The company plans to pay a US$250 mm special dividend following the divestment in Senegal. A ruling on the India tax dispute continues to be expected after the summer.
Equinor (EQNR NO): Discovery in Norway - Equinor has encountered 13-38 mmboe recoverable resources at the Swisher prospect in PL 248 C.
Lundin Energy (LUNE SS): Increasing reserves at Norway field – The gross 2P reserves at the Greater Edvard Grieg Area have been increased by ~50 mmboe) to 350 mmboe due to the continued outperformance of the field. The expected plateau production period from the Greater Edvard Grieg Area has been extended by a further year to late 2023.
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS A/B LN): 2Q20 update – 2Q20 production is expected to be 2,970-3,110 mboe/d.
Total (FP FP): Maintaining dividend distributions – Total announced that its dividend is supported at Brent price of US$40/bbl. This is in stark contrast to BP and Shell that have materially reduced distributions.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Block Energy (BLOE LN): Update in Georgia - Block has shut-in the West Rustavi field's production at wells WR 16aZ and WR-38Z to conserve gas resources until the gas sales pipeline is complete late in 2020. The company held US$2.3 mm in cash at the end of June.
Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Ruling overturned in Ukraine – A previous ruling that had found that the Svystunivsko-Chervonolutskyi exploration licence had not been awarded regularly has been overturned in favour of Enwell by the Appellate Administrative Court.
Petroneft (PTR LN): FY19 results – FY19 gross production in Russia was 1,614 bbl/d. The company held ~64 mmbbl WI 2P reserves at YE19. At YE19, Petroneft held US$0.3 mm in cash with current debt of US$4.3 mm.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (EKP LN): Receives payment from the KRG – Gulf Keystone has received net payment of US$9.8 mm for Sales at Shaikan in August.
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Receives payment from the KRG – ShaMaran has received net payment of US$6.8 mm for sales at Atrush in August.
United & Gas (UOG LN): 1H20 results – WI production in Egypt from the end of February to the end of June averaged 1,975 boe/d, increasing from 1,709 boe/d on the 1st of March to 2,716 boe/d on the 30th of June. 2H20 WI production is forecasted at 2,300 boe/d. The company held US$1.3 mm at the end of June.
Savannah Energy (SAVE LN): Update in Nigeria – Average gross production in the year-to-date period ended 31 August 2020 was 20.4 mboe/d. At the end of August, the group held US$84.7 mm in cash (including US$34.9 mm set aside for debt service) with net debt of US$426.8 mm. The company forecasts FY20 production of 21 23 mboe/d with capex of US$45 mm.
Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): Operating update in Gabon – 3Q20 net production is estimated at 4,370 bbl/d at the midpoint of the FY20 guidance. The company expects to have US$37 mm in cash at the end of 3Q20. A 3D seismic campaign will be run in 4Q20.
Companies: BPC CNE DNQ GKP LYV 0KAK PTR PTAL RDSA RDSB SAVE 0VH4 EGY TTA
GeoPark (GRPK US)C; Target price US$20: Cash tax reduction and high impact drilling– The only item of interest in the 2Q20 financials was the fact that GeoPark did not pay any cash tax in 2Q20 (we were carrying a payment of US$40 mm). This explains why the cash balance at the end of June was so much higher than we expected at the time of the 2Q20 operating update in July). This also reflects important positive changes in Colombia. First, US$20-25 mm cash taxes in 2020 have been deferred to 2021 leaving only US$15-20 mm due in 2H20. In addition, Colombia is accelerating the reimbursement of income tax credits. GeoPark has already collected US$15 mm in July that will offset the remaining 2H20 cash tax. Overall in 2020, the company could potentially obtain a total refund of US$25 mm of income tax (out of which US$15 mm is firm and collected in July) plus US$15-20 mm of VAT. The key wells to focus on in 2H20 will be the 1-2 wells to be drilled at CPO-5 (GeoPark WI: 30%). While these wells are expected to increase production, they will also allow the company to start derisking the exploration upside associated with the block. The first well will be a development/appraisal well in Indico where the oil water contact has not been encountered yet. The second well is an exploration well at Aguila targeting the same play concept. The share price continues to trade at ~45% discount to our Core NAV of ~US$19 per share. Overall there could be 350-700 mmboe gross prospective resources across its Llanos blocks (including CPO-5). Our target price of US$20 per share reflects our ReNAV and attributes only ~US$1 per share to exploration. It represents over 100% upside to the current levels.
IN OTHER NEWS
Frontera Energy (FEC CN): 2Q20 results | Gran Tierra (GTE LN/US/CN): 2Q20 results | i3 Energy (I3E LN): Acquisition of Canadian assets and £30 mm funding | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update in Brazil | Parex Resources (PXT CN): 2Q20 results
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): Licence extension in Vietnam and RBL confirmation
bp (BP LN): 2Q20 results and change of strategy | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Technical update in the UK | Neptune Energy: Discovery in Norway | Spirit Energy: Dry hole in Norway
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Genel Energy (GENL LN): 1H20 results
Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN): 2Q20 results | San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Acquires 10% Interest In new Nigerian oil export system | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US): 2Q20 results
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
10/08/2020: Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN) – 2Q20 results
11/08/2020: JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) – 2Q20 results
13/08/2020: Africa oil (AOI CN/SS) – 2Q20 results
Companies: BP/ FEC GENL 0MDP I3E PXT PHAR HUR KOS 0GEA EGY
In this note, we analyze the indebtedness of 35 international E&Ps publicly listed in the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and the USA. For each company, we look at (1) cash position, (2) level and nature of debt (including covenants), (3) debt service and principal repayment framework and (4) Brent price required from April to YE20 to meet all the obligations and keep cash positions intact. We also estimate YE20 cash if Brent were to average US$20/bbl from April to YE20. While the oil demand and oil price collapse are of unprecedented historical proportions and the opportunities to cut costs much more limited than in 2014, most companies (with a few exceptions) entered the crisis in much better position than six years ago, with stronger balance sheets and often already extended debt maturities. In addition, this time around, many E&Ps have already been deleveraging for 1-2 years and are not caught in the middle of large developments that cannot be halted. The previous crisis also showed that debt providers could relax debt covenants for a certain period as long as interest and principal repayment obligations were met. This implies that as long as operations are not interrupted and counterparties keep paying their bills (Kurdistan), the storm can be weathered by most for a few quarters.
With (1) Brent price of about US$50/bbl in 1Q20, (2) reduced capex programmes, (3) material hedging programmes covering a large proportion of FY20 production at higher prices and (4) limited principal repayments in 2020, we find that most companies can meet all their costs and obligations in 2020 at Brent prices below US$40/bbl and often below US$35/bbl) from April until YE20 and keep their cash intact, allowing them to remain solvent at much lower prices for some time. In particular, Maha Energy and SDX Energy are cash neutral at about US$20/bbl. When factoring the divestment of Uganda, Tullow needs only US$9/bbl to maintain its YE20 cash equal to YE19. Canacol Energy, Diversified Gas and Oil, Independent Oil & Gas, Orca Exploration, Serica Energy and Wentworth Resources are gas stories not really exposed to oil prices and Africa Oil has hedged 95% of its FY20 production at over US$65/bbl.
Companies: ARC AOI CNEC CNE DGOC EGY ENOG ENQ GENL GKP 0MDP GTE HUR IOG JSE KOS LYV 0GEA 3SX ORC/B PENUSD PHAR PMO PTAL PXT RRE SDX SEPL TETY TGL TLW TXP WRL
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target: US$20 - Delivering more with less | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US and US$87 mm equity raise | Gran Tierra Energy (GTE LN/CN): 1Q20 results| Parex Resources (PXT CN): 1Q20 results | Trinity Exploration and Production (TRIN LN): FY19 results | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): 1Q20 results | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN): 1Q20 results | Premier Oil (PMO LN): 1Q20 update and FY20 production guidance reduction | Serinus Energy (SEN LN): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLU LN/VLE CN): 1Q20 results |Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN): Production update in Kazakhstan | Genel Energy (GENL LN): 1Q20 update | Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): 1Q20 results | ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN/SS): 1Q20 update in Kurdistan | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN/CN): 1Q20 results | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): 1Q20 results | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US): 1Q20 results | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): 1Q20 results
Companies: KOS 0MDP DGOC GTE PXT TRIN TXP PMO SENUSD VLU CASP GENL PHAR 0VH4 TGL AOI EGY KOS
Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN): DGO raises US$86m to part finance two acquisitions | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN): 1Q20 results, production in line with guidance, large impairment recognised | Serica Energy (SQZ LN): R3 intervention slated for 4Q20
Companies: DGOC EGY SQZ
Ascent Resources (AST LN): Entering Cuba | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Production shutdown and licence termination in Argentina | Premier Oil (PMO LN): Exiting Area A in Alaska following drilling results | Coro Energy (CORO LN) and Empyrean Energy (EME LN): Resources increase in Indonesia | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN/FO CN): Farm out transaction in Australia | Oil Search (OSH AU): US$700 mm equity raise| Discovery in Norway | Baron Oil (BOIL LN)/Upland Resources (UPL LN): Relinquish UK licence | EnQuest (ENQ LN): FY19 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): FY results | Ithaca Energy (Delek): Cutting capex for the North Sea | OMV (OMV AG): 1Q20 trading update | Repsol (REP SM): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLE CN/VLU LN): Constrained gas sales in Turkey | Block Energy (BLOE LN): Shutting production in Georgia | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN): FY19 results | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR LN): Corporate update | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): Resources increase in Israel | SDX Energy (SDX LN): FY19 results and discovery in Egypt | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): Reduction of extraordinary dividend, capex reduction, FY20 production guidance
maintained | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): Tax update in Kenya | Giant gas development projects delayed | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): Cost reduction and RBL redetermination | Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): Production update in Gabon
Companies: 88E AOI BLOE BOIL CHAR CORO DGOC EGY EME ENOG ENQ IGAS KOS OSH OMV PGR PMO REP ENW SDX TETY UPL VLU
Bahamas Petroleum Corporation (BPC LN): Delaying exploration activities in the Bahamas | i3 Energy (I3E LN): Canadian acquisition | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): FY19 results | Cairn Energy (CNE LN): FY20 capex reduced but production guidance maintained | ENI (ENI IM): Capex reduction and new production guidance | Equinor (EQNR NO): Reducing spending | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): Update in the UK | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN): FY19 results | Lundin Petroleum (LUP SS): Reducing dividends, increased plateau at Johan Sverdrup | OMV (OMV AG): Reducing costs | Repsol (REP SM): Corporate update | RockRose Energy (RRE LN): Corporate update, maintaining dividends | Serinus Energy (SEN LN): FY19 results | Block Energy (BLOE LN): Acquiring Georgian assets from Schlumberger | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN): Acquisition in Ukraine | Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GPRK LN): Operating update in Kurdistan | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): Reserves update | Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): Operating update in Gabon
Companies: BPC I3E TXP CNE ENI DNQ IGAS IOG LYV OMV REP RRE SENUSD BLOE ENW GKP AOI EGY
Oil posted the biggest weekly plunge since 2008, capping its most dramatic week in recent memory as major producers prepare to drench the market with supply just as the coronavirus crushes demand. But prices jumped following the close, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would fill the nation's strategic reserve. Losses for the week totalled 23% after the collapse of talks between members of the OPEC+ group triggered the biggest crash in a generation. Instead of reaching a deal to cut output to mitigate the fallout from the virus, producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia embarked on a war for market share and pledged to pump more.
Companies: TGL TXP VLU EGY GTE CNE DGOC ENQ SQZ UKOG TRIN TLW PHAR
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN US)C : Corporate Update | Gran Tierra Energy (GTE LN/CN): Revised FY20 programme | President Energy (PPC LN): Update in Argentina | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN): Another strong flow test in Trinidad | Cairn Energy (CNE LN): FY19 results | Premier Oil (PMO LN): Trading update | Valeura Energy (VLU LN/VLE CN) : 4Q19 results | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): Divesting Hungary | Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): FY19 results | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN/CN): Corporate update and FY19 results | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): Reiterate 2020 guidance | Tower Resources (TRP LN): Resources update in Cameroon | Tullow Oil (TLW LN): FY19 results | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US): FY19 results | Wentworth Resources (WEN LN): Operational update in Tanzania
Companies: PTAL GTE PPC TXP CNE PMO VLU JKX PHAR TGL AOI TRP TLW EGY WRL
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): Still up for sale with little appetite | SDX Energy (SDX LN): 30% increase in 2020 production guidance | United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Production at Abu Sennan continues to ramp up | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN): Production offshore Gabon edges further – 6,000bopd net
Companies: NOG SDX UOG EGY
Zenith Energy (ZEN LN) (not covered): Acquisition in Italy | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US)1 ; BUY, £2.40: Very strong flow rate in Gabon and increased production guidance
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd. (ZEN:LON)VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY:LON)
88 Energy (88E LN) (not covered): Charlie-1 appraisal well update in Alaska | Amerisur Resources (AMER LN) (not covered): Block award in Colombia | i3 Energy (I3E LN)1 ; Speculative Buy, £0.90: Drilling setback but still large resources | Cairn Energy (CNE LN); BUY, £2.80: Disposal of Norway frees up cash | Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) (not covered): £5 mm placing | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US)1 ; BUY, £2.40: Progress in EG
Companies: 88E AMER I3E CNE UJO EGY
Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN) (not covered): Sale of assets | GeoPark (GPRK US)1 ; BUY, U$26.00: FY20 work programme, launching a dividend | Great Eastern Energy (GEEC LN) (not covered): Half year results | Oryx Petroleum (OXC CN): Under Review; 3Q19 results | Vaalco Energy (EGY US)1 ; BUY, £2.40: 3Q19 results
Companies: DGOC 0MDP GEEC OXC EGY
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Pantheon announced that is has contracted a rig to drill the Talitha well and that drilling operations are expected to commence in January 2021. The well will target four independent reservoirs, in three separate trapping sequences, which the company estimates has the potential to contain in the region of a billion barrels of recoverable oil, although ongoing work is required to formally delineate the full potential of the targets.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
The Prime Minister vowed last week to “restore Britain's position as the foremost naval power in Europe” and promised an extra £16.5bn in defence spending over the next four years. Mr Johnson expects this investment to “spur a renaissance of British shipbuilding across the UK”, and specifically mentioned five locations where this would occur, including Belfast and Appledore – the location of InfraStrata's shipyards. Other supportive policy initiatives emanating from the government include Mr Johnson's pledge in October that offshore wind will power every home in the country by 2030. We believe this demonstrable support from the highest level of government vindicates InfraStrata's strategy, and demonstrates the significant opportunities available to the company as it bids on numerous shipbuilding and fabrication contracts. We reaffirm our Buy rating.
Companies: InfraStrata plc
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$20.00: Divesting non-core asset in Brazil - GeoPark is selling its 10% non-operated working interest in the Manati gas field in Brazil to Gas Bridge for US$27 mm. We do not see much upside to the Brazilian asset (in terms of growing reserves or through exploration opportunities) and this divestment may allow GeoPark to reallocate resources to its core operations. We would rather see management remaining focused on deploying capital on higher return assets such as Colombia and Ecuador. Even after this week’s share price appreciation, our Core NAV continues to be 60% above the current share price. Our unrisked NAV for the 2021 drilling programme is ~US$9.00 per share, which represents ~90% of the current share price.
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: 2021 will be a transformational year - 2020 has been a difficult year for the oil and gas industry and 2021 is a turning point for Panoro. In Gabon, development activities at Ruche are expected to return to normal with gross production set to grow to 20 mbbl/d. The company will also appraise Hibiscus to test the 155 mmbbl upside case (=2x existing 2P reserves). The development of Hibiscus is expected to be sanctioned. Importantly, while the existing FPSO has a nominal oil processing capacity of 45-45 mbbl/d, processing expansion is possible which allows for a potential oil production plateau of 70 mbbl/d. We estimate the value of Panoro’s reserves in Dussafu at NOK10.40 per share. Derisking the contingent resources in Gabon could add ~NOK3 per share. We estimate that the upside at Hibiscus has a further unrisked NAV of ~NOK10 per share for a total unrisked NAV of NOK23 per share for the discovered and “to be appraised” volumes in Gabon. Overall, including Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia, we estimate the unrisked value of the 2021 activities at NOK30 per share; which represents 2.3x the share price. Our target price of NOK23 per share has been set close to our ReNAV.
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)c; Target price of £0.35: Low cost. Quickly scalable. High impact, quality exploration – Pharos is a £ mm market cap, ~12 mboe/d oil producer that acquired the Egyptian assets of Merlon in 2019. Under the stewardship of a blue-chip management team that turned Cairn Energy from a micro-cap into a successful E&P that returned US$4.5 bn to shareholders, Pharos has undergone a multi-faceted transformation, enhancing governance and rebalancing its asset portfolio. Given the recent macro challenges, this process appears to have gone unnoticed by many investors. Pharos now holds ~50 mmboe 2P reserves in Egypt and Vietnam. Vietnam provides stable cash flows even at low oil prices. Egypt production can be increased rapidly (up to x2.5 to 13 mbbl/d) with additional investment. Pharos also holds world class exploration assets in Israel, Egypt and Vietnam. With a healthy balance sheet (cash: ~US$38 mm, net debt:~US$36 mm), Pharos’ shares trade at EV/DACF multiples of 5,000 bbl/d, increasing production from the Shaikan field by~15%. FY20 gross production is expected to be at the upper end of the 35,000 – 36,000 bbl/d production guidance, with the field currently producing at ~39,000 bbl/d.
LEKOIL (LEK LN): Requisition from large shareholder to change the board of the company - LEKOIL has received a letter from Metallon, holding 15.4% of the company, requisitioning an extraordinary general meeting to vote on the replacement of the Chairman and the appointment of Michael Ajukwu, Thomas Richardson and George Maxwell as directors of the company.
Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN): 3Q20 results - 3Q20 WI production in Tanzania was 60.9 mmcf/d. At the end of September, Orca held US$79.2 mmm in working capital including US$98.5 mm in cash and long-term debt
of US$54.2 mm.
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Capital Market Day – 2020 production to date averages 75 mbbl/d with FY20 production guidance of 73-77 mbbl/d. Assuming an oil price of US$45/bbl in 2021 and US$55/bbl flat nominal from 2022 onwards, Tullow expects to generate US$7 bn of operating cashflow over the next 10 years with capex of US$2.7 bn. The first phase of investment will start in 2Q21 with the commencement of a multi-well drilling programme in Ghana. In Suriname, the prospective Goliathberg-Voltzberg North-1 well will spud in 1Q21.
Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Positive licence update in Cameroon – The duration of the onshore Matanda licence has been extended by one year to December 2021. The gross unrisked prospective resources are now estimated at 1,196 bcf, up from 903 bcf previously. 19 gas prospects haven identified in shallower Tertiary-aged reservoirs, plus 7 prospects in deeper, Cretaceous-aged prospects. The Company believes the largest of these prospects has mean unrisked Prospective Resources of >65 bcf, with geological Chance of Success estimated at >40%.
Companies: VOG BPC ENQ GPRK JOG JYOGF TPC1 7M7 0GEA MAHAA PEN PHAR RBD REP SENX TLW
Parkmead’s portfolio has evolved to the point where it is now a full-cycle E&P company with a low-cost Dutch production base and a broad spectrum of high-quality UK growth opportunities, encompassing material development projects and an attractive range of risk/reward exploration. Recently, it has diversified into renewables, future proofing its equity story and opening up a new ‘investor-friendly’ avenue of growth. A core strength of this management team is its commercial acumen and portfolio-driven approach to optimising value. Parkmead has been in portfolio construction mode to date but is now well positioned to start crystallising its intrinsic value. We initiate with a risked-NAV based price target of 155p/sh. Investors would do well to get on-board with a management team that has a strong track record of delivering shareholder value.
Companies: Parkmead Group PLC
Oil rose to the highest in nearly three months with positive Covid-19 vaccine developments paving the way for a more sustained recovery in oil demand.
Futures rose 5% in New York this week for a third straight weekly gain as Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE requested emergency authorisation of their Covid vaccine Friday. Moderna Inc also released positive interim results from a final-stage trial and said it is close to seeking emergency authorisation. Still, further gains were limited by broader market declines amid a dispute between the White House and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending programmes.
Even with vaccines on the horizon, a recovery in oil demand faces obstacles with governments under pressure to tighten restrictions and curb the spread of the virus. UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson's officials are considering tougher pandemic rules placed on broader regions of England next month after a national lockdown is set to end and the country returns to its tiered system. Meanwhile, the shift toward working from home may have a lasting chill on gasoline demand, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George.
The recent climb in headline prices has been accompanied by significant moves in timespreads, where traders bet on the price of oil in different months. The spread between West Texas Intermediate for December 2021 delivery and the following month moved to backwardation, while the closely watched gap between December 2021 and 2022 WTI contracts is close to also flipping.
West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, which expired Friday, rose 41 cents to settle at $42.15 a barrel.
The January contract rose 52 cents to end the session at $42.42 a barrel.
Brent for January settlement gained 76 cents to $44.96 a barrel. The contract rose 5.1% this week.
Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine could be the first to be cleared for use, but first it must undergo a thorough vetting. The filing could enable its use by the middle to the end of December, the companies said in a statement. Yet, it could take at least three weeks for a US Food and Drug Administration decision.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
• In an Important development, PetroTal has signed a contract with an international oil trader for a pilot shipment to export 0.12 mmbbl into the Atlantic region using the Amazon river through Brazil. The shipment will be sold FOB Bretana, priced at the forward month Brent ICE price, and paid within two weeks of loading at Bretana. There are no subsequent oil price adjustments.
• At November 19, 2020, PetroTal had cash resources of US$9.8 mm, with accounts payable and accrued liabilities of ~US$39 mm, a reduction of ~US$11 mm from the end of 2Q20. The company has been paid US$5.5 mm for delivery of 0.192 mm bbl of oil to Petroperu in October. Production is constrained to ~5,000 bbl/d pending the reopening of the export pipeline.
• We understand that the pilot should start in December. This would not only provide ~US$5 mm in cash to PetroTal but also allow production to return to recent levels (11.5 mbbl/d), effectively unlocking the fundamental value of the asset.
Balance sheet considerations
The potential financial derivative liability has been reduced from US$22.5 mm at the end of June to US$17 mm at the end of September. Of the US$39 mm current payables 46% are not due before 2021 and we note that the company still holds US$13 mm in account receivables and US$4.7 mm in inventory.
Financials on “a back to normal” scenario with flat production
We are now assuming production remains constrained at 5 mbbl/d over 4Q20 with minimum capex with cashflow and receivables being used to repay the due payables over the period.
On production of just ~11.5 mbbl/d during 2021, we estimate operating cashflow of US$85 mm at US$48/bbl Brent. This would result in free cashflow of >US$40 mm assuming capex of US$20 mm to maintain production and US$20 mm to repay the remaining payables. This compares with a current market cap of just US$75 mm, suggesting FY21 free cashflow would represent over 50% of the current market cap in a no growth scenario assuming production can be exported.
Our target price of £0.45 per share represents 6x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
EQTEC has announced today that the Company and Scott Bros. Enterprises Limited have agreed to extend the exclusivity period of the Billingham MOU until 18 December 2020. The Billingham MOU has been subject to previous extensions, as announced on 23 October 2019, 23 June 2020 and 18 September 2020.
Companies: EQTEC PLC (KEU1:FRA)EQTEC PLC (EQT:LON)
Jersey Oil & Gas announced today that is has entered into an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of CIECO V&C (UK) Limited, which is currently owned by two international entities headquartered in Japan. The acquisition secures an additional 12% working interest in Licence P2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d), which provides Jersey Oil & Gas with 100% of the licence. The licence contains the majority of the Verbier oil discovery in addition to three drill ready prospects: Verbier Deep, Wengen and Cortina. The acquired entity has approximately £15M of tax losses which will provide value to Jersey Oil & Gas. Consideration will consist of £150k in cash and contingent payments of i) £1.5M upon field development plan approval of Verbier within P2170 (as already discovered) by the OGA ii) £1.0M upon the 1st anniversary of attainment of first oil. The acquisition is conditional on OGA approval amongst other technicalities, which we do not anticipate will be problematic. The acquired entity will be free of debts.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: Revisiting Gabon - BW Energy provided an update on Dussafu with FY20 production guidance expectation marginally below previous guidance (14.25 mbbl/d versus 15 16 mbbl/d) due to COVID-19 restrictions and OPEC+ quotas. This results in FY20 opex expected to be US$19/bbl which is slightly above the previous guidance of US$17-18/bbl. The drilling of DTM-7H, and the tie-in of DTM-6H and -7H, has been deferred to mid-2021 with first oil expected in 3Q21 and our estimate of the timing of the field production ramp-up has been delayed by one quarter. BWE continues to expect production from the Dussafu area to reach >30 mbbl/d in 2023 and ~40 mbbl/d in 2024. The Hibiscus development is expected to offer 15% IRR at
Companies: TGL TGA 88E FEC JSE LUPE LUNE LNDNF LYV NOG GB_NTRM NSTRY 3NO PANR P3K PTHRF PTAL TETY TETY AOI ENOG PEN SDX EGY
Salt Lake Potash's AGM update reported that the Lake Way project is now 74% complete. Construction of the process plant is on-schedule with practical completion and first SOP production planned for Q1/21. Drawdown of the Senior Facility Agreement funds and repayment of the Taurus bridge loan is expected soon.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Limited
Acquisition of CIECO P2170 interest
Companies: JOG JYOGF TPC1
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) following a successful ramp up at Sasa, progress in the environmental clean up and confirmation of the remedial costs in line with the previously guided US$1.5m the company has declared an interim dividend of 6p/sh. This will be paid on 11 December 2020 with a record date of 20 November 2020.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
Low cost. Quickly scalable. High impact, quality exploration
Pharos is a £55 mm market cap ~12 mboe/d oil producer that acquired the Egyptian assets of Merlon in 2019. Under the stewardship of a blue-chip management team that turned Cairn Energy from a micro cap into a successful E&P that returned US$4.5 bn to shareholders, Pharos has undergone a multi-faceted transformation, enhancing governance and rebalancing its asset portfolio. Given the recent macro challenges, this process appears to have gone unnoticed by many investors. Pharos now holds ~50 mmboe 2P reserves in Egypt and Vietnam. Vietnam provides stable cash flows even at low oil prices. Egypt production can be increased rapidly (up to x2.5 to 13 mbbl/d) with additional investment. Pharos also holds world class exploration assets in Israel, Egypt and Vietnam.
Cash engine in Vietnam
Pharos produces ~6 mboe/d from two offshore assets with ~21 mmboe 2P reserves and 13 mmboe 2C resources (WI). The key asset is the TGT field (29.7% WI) with 24 mmboe 2P reserves plus 2C resources implying just 25% recovery factor. At US$22/bbl for Brent, production can be maintained flat. At US$40/bbl, the assets generate Free Cash Flow of US$20-25 mm per year. 6 new wells will be drilled from 4Q21 to grow production to 8 mboe/d. Obtaining approval to drill 9 more wells would add 9 mmboe WI 2P.
Scalable growth in Egypt
Pharos produces ~5.5 mbbl/d from the El Fayum licence (Western Desert) with 29 mmbbl 2P and 23 mmbbl 2C. A 3D campaign and >120 wells have improved the understanding of the geology where production growth is driven by waterflood and drilling. The pace of growth is proportional to the number of rigs directly reflecting the available funding. Without further investment, the assets break even at current oil prices but production declines fast. Four rigs and early investment maximizes value but requires additional funding or a partner.
High quality exploration
At El Fayum, there are 108 mmbbl prospective resources across the shallow horizons and the deeper Pre-Khatira play. North Beni Suef is also a promising licence. Israel is about chasing giant structures (Zhor/Tamar plays). In Vietnam, Pharos holds interests in the Phu Khanh frontier basin.
With a healthy balance sheet (cash: ~US$38 mm, net debt:~US$36 mm), Pharos’ shares trade at EV/DACF multiples of
Companies: Pharos Energy PLC
Trifast has reported FY21 interim results that highlight the tough operating conditions with material falls in revenue, and operating leverage driving sharp reductions in profitability. The c.£16m equity raise helped to cushion the financial impact and the ongoing recovery exiting the first half provides some optimism for the Group heading in to FY22. We reinstate our buy recommendation.
Companies: Trifast plc (TRI:LON)Trifast plc (25D:BER)
Today's news & views, plus announcements from KGF, MRO, UU, BAB, BRW, FUTR, GNS, HICL, LIO, AEXG, FUL, KWS
Companies: AEX GNS HICL