HgCapital Trust - Seizing ‘buy-and-build’ opportunities

HgCapital Trust (HGT) delivered a 4.6% NAV TR in H123, with its performance continuing to be mostly driven by robust trading across its portfolio (with the associated increase in portfolio value in H123 of £203.8m, or 8.3% of end-2022 portfolio value) and a minor positive impact from multiples (£34.1m or 1.4%). Hg was cautious in terms of new platform investments in H123, but saw record high M&A activity across its portfolio, highlighting increasingly attractive pricing and a strong flow of oppo

HgCapital Trust - High quality, high growth, high margin

HgCapital Trust (HGT) continues to operate against the backdrop of a tougher macroeconomic environment, muted M&A markets and higher interest rates. Nevertheless, it delivered a 12-month NAV TR to end-March 2023 of 10.3%, which supports its longer-term outperformance of listed PE peers and major public indices. While Hg (its investment manager) expects some pressure on sales to new customers across HGT’s portfolio, it sees several other organic growth drivers, including cross- and up-sell. Last

HgCapital Trust - Improving its commitment coverage ratio

HgCapital Trust (HGT) posted a 5.4% NAV total return (TR) in FY22, mostly assisted by continued good earnings momentum (revenue and EBITDA across the top 20 holdings increased in 2022 by 30% and 25%, respectively) and the average 28% uplift to end-2021 carrying value achieved on exits. This was only partly offset by lower multiples and higher net debt across HGT’s portfolio (with net debt to last 12-month EBITDA for the top 20 holdings at 8.0x at end-2022). HGT’s recent balance sheet measures st

HgCapital Trust - NAV resilient, but near-term outlook uncertain

HgCapital Trust (HGT) posted a 2.3% increase in NAV per share total return (TR) in Q322, as positive earnings growth across the portfolio over the last 12 months (LTM) again outweighed multiple contraction. Despite the latter, the average EV/LTM EBITDA across HGT’s top 20 holdings stands at 28.8x vs 27.4x at end-2021 (see our previous note for a discussion on HGT’s valuations). The weaker global economy and tightening credit conditions weigh on both HGT’s near-term portfolio performance outlook

HG Capital Trust

Specialist private equity trust, on a rare discount to NAV...

HgCapital Trust - Business as usual for boring but critical tech

HgCapital Trust (HGT) consistently executes its successful active ownership strategy, undeterred by the turbulent macroeconomic conditions. It has invested a net amount of c £332m ytd (16% of opening NAV) in announced deals (closed and to be closed), all in the manager’s (Hg’s) core areas of software and services expertise. Moreover, HGT should receive net proceeds of c £180m from exits and refinancings announced so far this year (with more exits in the near-term pipeline). HGT posted a 1.8% NAV

HgCapital Trust - The King of ‘Dulltech’

HgCapital Trust’s (HGT’s) sector expertise has allowed it to consistently deliver strong performance, with a 10-year NAV total return (TR) at 17.6% per year (with 30.9% over the last 12 months), materially above the FTSE All-Share of 7.2% per year and LPX Europe NAV Index of 11.5% per year. Importantly, this has largely been driven by top-line and earnings growth (90% of returns on HGT’s software and services holdings exited in 2001–2022 ytd) rather than multiple expansion, with five-year EBITDA

HgCapital Trust - NAV total return of 36% in 9M21

HgCapital Trust (HGT) delivered a strong NAV total return of c 36% in the first nine months of 2021, including c 12% in Q321, driven primarily by double-digit earnings growth across the portfolio (LTM EBITDA for top 20 holdings up 29% y o y). Its transaction activity remains high, with the volume of completed and announced investments and realisations at £378m and £204m, respectively in 2021 so far (vs £403m and £364m in the record-high 2020). HGT’s coverage ratio was a healthy c 85% at 10 Decem

Strong H1'23 results; forecasts upgraded

LIBERUM: Housebuilders: Darkest before dawn

Strategic progress drives robust growth

H1 interims are in line. Argentex has delivered strong growth (+28% yoy revenue) by driving growth initiatives. New technology-enabled products have been launched, including Alternative Transaction Banking, which are already delivering compelling growth ahead of expectations. Pressing into Europe via the Netherlands is also delivering strong growth. At the core, client KPIs remain strong. We leave our forecasts unchanged, with revenue momentum continuing into Q3. We believe the current 12.4x Dec

LIBERUM: Housebuilders: Rate peak nears & Gove less BANANAs

Equals Group (EQLS LN) - Interims justify rise in forecasts

What’s new: Equals Group has delivered outstanding interims, which have exceeded even the positive commentary at the Capital Markets Day in May and the trading update on 5 July. With trading “ahead of expectations”, we raise our 2023E revenue forecast by 7% to £95m and adj EBITDA forecast by 11% to £20m, as well as nudging up our forecasts for 2024E and 2025E.

H1 23: focusing on capital generation

Promising results for M&G in H1 23. The new CEO, Andrea Rossi, continues to execute the company’s new strategy, and we have confidence that he is positioning M&G to surpass its financial targets for the 2022-24 plan. The H1 23 operating capital generation results significantly outperformed expectations, exceeding the consensus by more than 50%. This substantial capital accumulation is poised to deliver strong returns to shareholders, rewarding them for their patience during this transitional per

LIBERUM: Alpha Group International: Underlying strength

Gore Street Energy Storage + (GSF, House Stock, 84p) - Steady NAV growth

LIBERUM: Real Estate Investors: Further profitable sales reduce leverage

Robust interims; small reductions to FY24 forecasts

LIBERUM: Harworth: Valuation gains reflect management actions and operational progress

LIBERUM: Pollen Street : Fundraising momentum continues

Taking the Upper Brand: Brands Sector Overview

The earliest dated brand has long been contested; the majority point to Kongō Gumi, a family run construction company that specialised in Buddhist temples in Japan; its documented record of ownership goes back to 578 AD. Like Kongō Gumi, several different brands have withstood the test of time, albeit without then same degree of longevity. The term brand originates from the 1500s and means "to burn" in Ancient Norse and was initially used to mark cattle for ownership. This practice can be consid

Interim Results

FSFL, a UK centric solar electricity generator, delivered a solid H1’23 total return (-2.4%) in a difficult environment. During the period, the fund continued with its forward sales (locking in cashflows for the next 2.5 years), increased its discount rate by c50bps to 7.5% (UK), maintained its medium term inflation (2024-2030) assumption of 3.0% and announced plans to recycle 200MW of assets into higher returning projects. During 2023 the sector has de-rated as investors, grappling with valuati

Morning Note – 6 September 2023