Alumasc (ALU): Corp | Bigblu Broadband (BBB): Corp | Flowtech Fluidpower (FLO): Corp | STM (STM): Corp | Synairgen (SNG): Corp
Companies: ALU FLO STM SNG BBB
Pleasingly, there are no major adjustments to the interim numbers (to 30 June 2020), save for £0.1m acquisition costs at the PBT level. Revenue of £11.8m is approximately flat YoY (+1.7% adjusted) and 49% of our new revenue number, while EBITDA of £1.8m is 51% of our revised estimates. Both 2020E and 2021E downward revisions to revenue and PBT of £0.2m and £0.4m respectively are driven by a slower take-up of the recently launched flexible annuity product (flagged in the trading update on 6 August). We introduce 2022E numbers for the first time, noting specifically the estimated PBT margin in that year of c.20%, in line with peers, and what would be expected of a recurring revenue business such as STM’s (with a stabilised cost base). Encouragingly, this margin is achieved before considering acquisitive uplift, the possibility of which was recently amplified by the announcement concerning the £5.5m acquisition facility with RBS. We retain our price target of 53p (47% upside).
Companies: STM Group Plc
Acquisition of Berkeley Burke (Financial Services) Ltd and Berkeley Burke Employee Benefit Consultants Ltd for £2.9m maximum consideration (£1.4m initial plus £1.5m deferred and contingent on revenue hurdles). In addition to the acquisitions announced today, the company has received credit committee approval from RBS International for a new £5.5m acquisition facility, further strengthening the potential for STM’s acquisitive growth strategy. The execution of both the due diligence and the deal itself is impressive in the current climate, and the deal adds £0.3m of PBT in 2021E, with a minimum of £0.6m expected from 2022E. We reiterate our 53p price target.
Avacta (AVCT): Corp COVID-19 test – manufacturing partner appointed | D4T4 Solutions (D4T4): Corp H1 is in line with expectations; offering good value | STM (STM): Corp Implementing the plan amid an uncertain backdrop
Companies: AVCT D4T4 STM
Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR): Corp 2019 results – primed | Evgen Pharma (EVG.L): Corp Investigator-led study in COVID-19 | genedrive (GDR): Corp Conversion of $8m convertible bond | STM (STM): Corp Solid start to FY 2020 with trading in line | Zambeef (ZAM): Corp Inline despite macro headwinds
Companies: CHAR STM ZAM EVG GDR
Both the pensions administration industry and STM specifically should receive a boost of confidence as a result of today’s ruling that Carey Pensions as an administrator was not liable for performance of the high risk investment or the investment decisions that Mr Adams made in relation to his SIPP. The Carey rebrand to ‘Options for your tomorrow’ should now enable the group to put the case behind it and move on to the planned strategy of both organic and acquisitive growth in the UK Auto Enrolment (AE) and SIPP market.
ANGLE (AGL): Corp Progress report since COVID-19 lockdown | NAHL (NAH): Corp Navigating change in difficult markets | Omega Diagnostics (ODX): Corp VISITECT CD4 supply agreement with CHAI | Proactis (PHD): Corp Reset of banking facility | STM (STM): Corp Transitioning into new markets from a robust base | Universe Group (UNG): Corp Strong FY19 trading update, strong FY20 order book
Companies: ODX PHD STM UNG AGL NAH
Full-year results to 31 December 2019 show the company making significant progress towards a more UK-focused business offering pension administration services in adjacent markets (such as auto enrolment). It is pleasing to see top-line reported revenue growth of 8.6%, proving the growth is there to be capitalised on once operational improvements begin to bed in. Reported PBT comes in at £3.9m, down 2.7% YoY as the group invests in Carey.
Independent Oil & Gas (IOG): Corp Harvey-Redwell update | STM (STM): Corp Trading update reiterated | Surface Transforms (SCE): Corp Interim results highlight progress Surface | Wameja (WJA): Corp Good Q4 update reinforces positive
Companies: WJA IOG STM SCE
Filtronic (FTC): Corp | iomart (IOM): Corp | STM (STM): Corp
Companies: IOM STM FTC
While one-off adjustments make the picture more confusing than many investors would like, the company is performing well and investing for the future, where we believe a scalable, reliable business has the potential to emerge. EBITDA comes in at 60% of our full-year number, while underlying PBT of £1.6m was 60%.
ANGLE (AGL): Corp Third-party breakthrough prostate cancer research | Destiny Pharma (DEST): Corp Research grant award | Omega Diagnostics (ODX): Corp £0.4m Chinese purchase order | STM (STM): Corp Reported EBITDA in line amidst investment for the future | Telit (TCM): Corp Telit enjoys strong growth in continuing business
Companies: ODX STM AGL DEST TCM
Avacta (AVCT): Corp Manufacturing partner for first therapeutic selected | Best of the Best (BOTB): Corp Resilient FY19; more upgrades | LPA Group (LPA): Corp Interim results – Initiation of coverage | Savannah Resources (SAV): Corp Completion of acquisition | STM (STM): Corp Momentum beginning to build in the UK
Companies: AVCT BOTB SAV STM LPA
Network International Holdings—Pleading enabler of digital commerce across the Middle East and Africa region, operating across over 50 highly underpenetrated payment markets that contain a total population of 1.5 bn. 2018 rev $298m, underlying EBITDA $152m. Due April. No new funds to be raised. Secondary sell down. Targeting 25% of at least 25%. Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m.
Companies: SOLG SNX PGH PTRO VNET ALB DPP BOKU FEVR STM
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Litigation Capital Management has announced FY20 results with gross profit up 7% to A$21.7m and PBT of A$9.2m, slightly behind expectations albeit the Group had already flagged that delays to 3 cases during the year would result in resolutions in FY21, thereby impacting FY20 results. That said, excellent strategic progress through the year and good news flow as well as increasing scale suggests more value to come. Reiterate buy
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd.
To achieve YoY revenue growth over H1/20A despite the challenges of Covid-19 and its impact on the travel sector is testament to Equals' resilience and increasing focus on B2B and International payments services. While weaker gross profit and EBITDA margins have impacted profitability in H1/20, we see potential for an earnings recovery in H2/20 given cost reduction measures currently being undertaken. This should lead Equals to cash breakeven in Q4/20 and FCF positive by early FY21.
Companies: Equals Group Plc
FY20A results largely reflect a period prior to the Covid-19 lockdown, yet show Duke entering a more challenging FY21E with momentum. Yesterday's trading update demonstrated another notable rise in quarterly cash receipts for Q2/21, as royalty partner trading continues to improve. As some partners' forbearance measures will expire this month, Q3/21 receipts should continue this upwardly momentum. This opens the door to a return to cash dividends at some future point. Today, Duke also confirms it is now seeking new royalty partners, alongside follow-ons.
Companies: Duke Royalty
Interim results demonstrate YoY growth and a resilient outcome that has exceeded management's expectations from the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is testament to the degree of recurring revenue generated across the business. FY21 trading looks to be more challenging, as notably lower new insurance sales post-lockdown will translate into lower premium income. A number of organic opportunities are being worked on to fill the shortfall. Rising UK redundancies and their impact on policyholder retentions creates great uncertainty, hence our forecasts remain withdrawn and recommendation remains Under Review.
Companies: Personal Group Holdings Plc
Sigma Capital (“Sigma”) has partnered with global alternatives manager EQT to deliver and manage a £1bn GDV private-rented sector (“PRS”) housing fund focused on Greater London. EQT will invest £300m equity, complemented by debt (including a Homes England facility), to build 3,000 homes in 5 years. Sigma will generate fee income as development manager, a recurring fee income stream from managing completed assets, as well as participation in returns via a minority co-investment (£16m) and a profit share. We estimate that the fee income alone is worth £45m to Sigma in the first five years: 50% of the current market cap. Crucially, this is a step up in AuM bringing a high quality long-term recurring earnings stream. We will reforecast following interim results (expected tomorrow) to provide full context.
Companies: Sigma Capital Group Plc
In line interim results to 30 June 2020 show the strength of this business amid a difficult environment. This is the first step in what should be an exciting growth trajectory toward a larger, scaled up business with high recurring revenues and ownership of the full supply chain in the personal injury and clinical negligence market for clients requiring long-term, risk-adjusted returns. We reiterate our TP of 50p, noting further upside potential as acquisitions are completed.
Companies: Frenkel Topping Group Plc
In June, faced with the task of replacing its longstanding portfolio manager, Alistair Mundy, Temple Bar Investment Trust’s (TMPL’s) board reiterated its commitment to a value style of investing. The board has now opted to hand the management contract to Nick Purves and Ian Lance of RWC Partners, two managers with considerable experience of managing income portfolios using a value-style approach. Value investing, where managers buy stocks that are valued more cheaply than market averages – based on measures such as price/earnings, price/book and yield – is deeply out of favour. The RWC team says that value stocks have never looked more unloved in the 30- odd years that they have been managing money. In their view, this makes it imperative that TMPL investors keep faith with the strategy and it also means this is an attractive entry point for new investors. One important change, however, is a cut to TMPL’s dividend to a level that the RWC team believes will be more sustainable.
Companies: Temple Bar Investment Trust
HSBC’s future should be clarified as soon as the US and China come back to the negotiation table. This will not happen before the US elections are over. In the meantime, HSBC will continue to be instrumentalised and its share price will remain under pressure.
Companies: HSBC Holdings Plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from VOD, POLY, SMDS, BLND, BYG, WEIR, DC, SNR, SHI, INTU, IHR, CNC, ARE, INCE
Companies: INTU SHI INCE
The impressive full year 2019 results included some eye-catching numbers, including a record PBT of £40.1m (nearly 3x FY18 @ £14.3m), £620m of reserves acquired over 16 legacy deals, and $842m of (estimated) Contracted Premium in the Program business – on track to breach $1bn in FY20 as previously guided and $1.5bn-$2bn in 2022-2023.
Companies: Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd.
As anticipated, Record has confirmed a material uplift in AUME following the rebound in financial markets from April. We upgrade FY21E forecast EPS by +18%, with higher staff costs offsetting some of the benefit. We expect AUME growth to be more modest from herein. While no performance fees have been recognised over Q1/21 and will be harder to achieve due to Covid-19, any future recognition would have a materially positive impact on earnings. Covid has temporarily paused new client wins, but we expect further additions to come as conditions improve.
Companies: Record Plc
COVID-19 and a further cut to power price assumptions saw NAV per share fall to 309p in H120 (FY19: 337p). However, PPP performed well, bidding momentum has picked up recently and John Laing Group (JLG) expects ‘modest’ NAV growth in H2. New CEO Ben Loomes highlighted digital connectivity and energy transitions as potential future investment themes, and will set out further details in November. We cut our FY20 NAV per share forecast by 14% to 308p. The share price stands at an 8% discount to FY20e NAV per share.
Companies: John Laing Group Plc
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact globally in many areas. While primarily a health issue, it has had wide-ranging implications for stock markets, which have now rallied after the plunge in share prices in mid-March when the full severity of the emerging pandemic became more widely appreciated. Nonetheless, the FTSE 100 Index remains almost 20% off its late February 2020 figure.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL GDR ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Trident Royalties Plc (AIM: TRR) has, this morning, announced the acquisition of a 1.5% Net Smelter Royalty (NSR) over the resourcestage Lake Rebecca Gold Project located in the highly prospective Eastern Goldfields province in Western Australia. The royalty package is being acquired from a private seller for a total consideration of A$8.0 million (c. US$5.63 million), comprising of A$7.0 million in cash and A$1.0 million in new ordinary shares in Trident. The acquisition is Trident’s fifth overall and its third gold deal. As per strategic guidance the company is moving fast assembling a diversified portfolio with a paying cashflow stream from iron ore and copper production and several strategic gold royalties with the potential for near term revenues. The market is paying attention with TRR shares up 49.8% since its IPO on AIM in June this year. There is clearly more to come with c. US$7.5 million of uncommitted cash as well as the potential for debt funding and the ability to use equity as acquisition consideration. The Lake Rebecca Gold Project operated and wholly owned by Apollo Consolidated (ASX: AOP), is located 150km ENE of Kalgoorlie in the Eastern Goldfields Province of the Yilgarn Craton. The Project, envisaged as a simple open pit operation, is close to existing gold infrastructure namely Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited’s (ASX: SAR) Carosue Dam Operation whose processing plant is in the process of being upgraded to increase throughput to 3.2 Mtpa.
Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA