Waiting for margin explanations

Sales growth was very strong, but it was expected. Questions are being raised about a possible margin reset in H2 FY21.

A strong first half has raised the outlook for FY21

The H1 FY21 results significantly exceeded consensus, with strong double-digit growth and market share gains in all regions. FY21 outlook was raised accordingly.

H2 miss implies more cautious stance for FY21

Strong retail business has not succeeded in offsetting the drag from weak own stores/travel retail, leading to H2 sales missing consensus expectations.

FY19 pushed up by Europe and US improvements (finally)

Organic sales growth came in above market expectations (+6.1% organically vs. 5.8% consensus), especially thanks to a strong performance in Europe which was a good surprise. Broadly, commercial pressure persisted but the chocolate market worldwide slightly recovered (especially in terms of premium products), showing positive momentum. At the group level, the difficult environment in several markets (such as HK and Latin America) has been offset by strong European results and improvements in Nort

Numbers are in line; sees a better FY18

FY update: As a reminder, sales grew organically 3.7% (volume +2.9%, price/mix 0.8%) and 4.8% on reported figures (FX: +1.1%). The reported EBIT was up +5.8% with the EBIT margin up 20bp to 14.6% (in line with our estimates). By division, the EBIT margin improved in Europe +100bp and in ROW by a strong +210bp. In NAFTA, the EBIT margin contracted by 170bp on the back of a weaker US market & Russell Stover. Net profit is up +7.8%. FY18 guidance: given the challenging US market conditions, the g

FY trading update: reported figures in line, disappoints at organic level

FY trading update: Sales grew organically by 3.7% (H2: 3.8%, below our forecast) and +4.8% reported (FX: 1.1%). Excluding Russell Stover, sales grew organically by 5.9%. FY OG by region: Europe +6.2%, NAFTA -1.6% (better H2:+0.1% but the market is still weak) and ROW +12.4% (driven by Japan and Brazil). Global Retail recorded double-digit growth and is now generating CHF 0.5bn in sales. The group expects the FY17 operating margin to be up in the 20-40 bps range. The mid-term to long-term guida

H1 dragged down by the US

H1 update: sales are up +3.6% organically (+6.6% excluding Russell Stover) with volumes +2% and +1.6% on price/mix. On reported figures, sales grew +3.1%. The operating margin is up +20bp. OG by region: Europe 6%, NAFTA -3% (due to the realignment of the Russell Stover portfolio) and ROW +14%. Global Retail expanded by 20 new shops in H1. Net profit is up +5.7%. The company expects a stronger second half with an increase in the operating profit margin on a FY basis. The FY17 top-line growth,

Distinguished performance amongst food players

FY update: as a reminder sales grew organically 6% (volume +3.9%, price/mix 2.1%). The reported EBIT was up +8.4% with the EBIT margin up 20bp to 14.4% (broadly in line with our estimates). By division, the EBIT margin improved in Europe +100bp and in ROW +190bp but was weaker for NAFTA -120bp on the back of RS portfolio adjustments, production-line investments and promotional activity (however, these works were necessary for long-term profitable growth in future). L&S opened 60 new chocolate

FY trading update: strategic goals kept despite challenging environment

Sales grew organically by 6% (H2: 7.6%, in line with our forecast and slightly better than consensus of 5.7%) and 6.8% on reported figures (in line with consensus, FX: 0.8%). Excluding Russell Stover, sales grew organically 7.4%. FY OG by region: Europe +7.4%, NAFTA +3.4% and ROW +10.2% (driven by Japan and Brazil). Global Retail recorded double- digit growth.

Russell Stover portfolio adjustments drag OG but bottom line remains solid

L&S released its H1 update. Organic sales stood at 4.4% (cons. 5.3%) and were up +6.6% on reported figures. Weaker than expected OG is linked to adjustments to the Russell Stover portfolio (SKU reduction that does not fit into the strategy, coupled with price increases and decreasing promotional activity). Excluding Russell Stover, organic sales were up 6.6%. OG by region: 5.7%, NAFTA +0.8% (+6.6% excluding the effect of Russell Stover) and ROW +10.2%.

Aims to boost its Global Retail Network by 2020

L&S has released its FY accounts. As a reminder, at the time of the trading statement, the group reported 7.1% organic sales growth (4.8% in H2). On a FY basis, operating profit stood at CHF518.8m (slightly above consensus and our estimates). The operating margin rose 20bp (10bp better than expected). Net profit increased by 11.2%, and the proposed dividend is up 10.3% to CHF800. For FY16, the group confirms its mid- to long-term guidance: 6-8% organic growth and an increase in EBIT of 20-40bp.

FY trading update: H2 OG disappoints

FY trading update. Organic sales growth stood at 7.1% (only 4.8% OG in H2). On the reported figures, sales progressed by 7.9% (negative FX effect stood at 5.6%, in local currencies sales progressed by 13.5%) to CHF 3.65bn. By region, Europe OG was at 5.6%, NAFTA achieved 7.9% OG, whereas ROW OG stood at 11.4%. The group expects the FY operating profit margin to be at least the same level as last year. More details with the full financial statement on 8 March.

Bulletproof L&S

L&S released its H1 results. As a reminder at its H1 trading update, the company reported 9.4% OG (6.4% in volume and 3% in price/mix) excluding Russell Stover's results. Total sales (including Russell Stover) increased by 17.4% to CHF1,409m with a -7.5% FX effect. Russell Stover's integration added 15.5% to the results. The group grew organically in all regions: Europe 6.9%, NAFTA 10.3% (excl. Russell Stover) and ROW 18.9%. On reported figures, Europe's sales declined by 4.9%, NAFTA's was u

H1 trading update: impressive numbers in spite of strong FX headwinds

H1 trading update: the company reported 9.4% OG excluding Russell Stover's results. Total sales (including Russell Stover) increased by 17.4% to CHF1,409m (-7.5% FX effect). The company confirmed its mid long-term outlook: 6-8% sales OG and 20-40bp EBIT margin expansion once the Russell Stover integration is accomplished.

Carr's Group - An enhanced value creation strategy

Carr’s Group has announced an updated strategy that offers the potential for value realisation and creation from a number of avenues. These include: value realisation of the Engineering Division; the ability to significantly reduce central costs; and longer-term value creation in the Agriculture Division as a focused business with recovery potential and a strategy to leverage its strong market positions for growth.

M.P. Evans - Tougher year but growing cashflow outlook drives optionality

FY23 results are much in line with overall expectations, helped by a much stronger H2 production and higher purchases of independent crops helping to fill the group’s rising mill capacity. A marginally higher than expected average CPO price mill-gate price of $729/tonne drove the revenue outperformance, but the change in production mix impacted gross margins while slightly higher than anticipated interest, tax and minority charges resulted in EBIT, PBT (Adj.) and EPS (Adj.) just below our foreca

Greggs - Showing us how it's done

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation t

Anpario+ (ANP, House Stock at 230p) - FY24F upgrades - recovery play

Ocean Harvest Technology - Harvesting the power of seaweed

Ocean Harvest Technology (OHT), based in the UK, produces animal feed additives products using a composite of blended seaweed. Its patented products have been shown to enhance growth rates in livestock, increase feed efficiency and improve egg quality and quantity for laying poultry. As OHT operates in an attractive market, there is significant potential for its proprietary technology to drive volume growth as awareness of its product benefits increases, along with improving financials.

SP Angel Morning View: Risk sentiment pulls back on geopolitical tensions and concerns over Chinese property market

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 16 May 2023

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 20 March 2024

Morning Note – 11 September 2023

Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2023 – Capital demands dent performance

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 20 Mar 24

20th March 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Greencore Group+ (GNC, House Stock, 117p) - Delivering on margin rebuild plans

REIG JOFRE: coverage dropped

We have dropped our coverage of Reig Jofre owing to internal reorganisation. Our rating, target price and estimates are therefore no longer valid.

Anpario+ (ANP, House Stock, 194p) - Tender offer; returning up to

Anpario^ (ANP, House Stock at 208p) - Director appointment