A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Much has been written about the effects of the virus on the world and on the stock market. Here is one analyst’s take on some of the likely impacts on the way we should look at companies. This article was originally produced as a blog, “10 Changes Post Virus”, which was published a few weeks ago.
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There has been much comment on the fact that equity markets in the US and Europe have been shrinking for some years now, certainly in terms of the number of quoted companies, if not in total market capitalisation (MCap). This paper has been written with the assistance of the Quoted Companies Alliance (QCA) and focuses on the evidence for such in the London market and, in particular, that for smaller and midcap companies. It assesses that evidence and considers explanations. Finally, we ask why it matters, and assuming that it does, what practical steps can be taken to reverse the trend. Successful public markets have been a key part of the United Kingdom’s economic success for generations, even centuries, and we should not allow them to wither on the vine.
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Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL GDR HAYD PCA PIN PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SHED VTA
Much of the UK’s privatisation programme took place between the early 1980s and the mid-1990s: subsequent sales have been few. Undoubtedly, privatisation attracted many private investors to the market, many for the first time.
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CLIG DNL FLTA GDR NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA
The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.
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Since their privatisation in 1989, the 10 water companies have faced a periodic review every five years; it is undertaken by Ofwat, and prescribes customer prices, along with the investment requirements. As part of the ongoing review, PR19, Ofwat will publish its Final Determination numbers on 11 December 2019; they will apply as from April 2020, although water companies do have the option to seek a reference to the CMA.
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The challenges associated with value creation drive all investors. Any investment professional is eager to make their mark by picking organisations that are able to deliver superior returns. Increasingly investors look into how organisations are governed and how effective the top decision-making bodies of organisations really are. In this white paper, we shed light on research findings and reveal the seven hallmarks of effective boards. The seven hallmarks are proven to create more effective boards and are set to be the next lever in the value creation process. Better Boards has created advanced board evaluation tools designed to motivate and inspire and above all, contribute to superior value creation.
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The introduction of IFRS 2 in 2004 generated considerable debate about the best approach for handling ‘share-based payments’ (SBP). While it is clearly a cost to shareholders, which should be included in the statutory reporting lines through the P&L account, the question arose as to whetherit should be part of our underlying EBIT calculation.
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When advisers first start looking at business relief (BR) products, there is much to take in: the rules governing such products; the investment strategies being used; and what the investment risk is. It is easy to lose sight of the fact that, for non-AIM products, the investment is being made directly into a company or partnership, rather than a fund. It is, therefore, essential that governance is part of the diligence process.
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REA’s FY’18 results showed a marked recovery in the group’s FFB production, up 50.8% YoY, to a record level of 800,050mt; CPO production increased by over 51%, to 217,721mt. However, revenue was up only 5.2%, to $105.5m ($100.2m); crop growth was strong but results were significantly dampened due to commodity prices, with the palm oil price hitting a 10-year low, at $440/mt, in November 2018. The CPO price suffered a 17% drop to an average $596/mt for 2018, and the PKO price plunged 27.2% for the year. With the PBJ transaction completed, REA is focusing on raising production efficiency and planting out the remaining land bank should funding become available.
Companies: R.E.A. Holdings plc
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How small- and mid-cap quoted companies make a substantial contribution to markets, employment and tax revenues.
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Although the focus of Hardman & Co is predominantly on companies in the smallto mid-sized market capitalisation range, when writing research reports, it is important to position them relative to the industry in which they operate. Apart from Japanese companies, all the major global pharmaceutical companies have reported full-year results for 2018 over the past few weeks; therefore, we have taken the opportunity to update our industry database and generate the first cut of global rankings for 2018. For an industry that requires a long investment cycle – it still takes, on average, 10 years from discovery to launch of a new drug – decisions made many years ago have important consequences on current financial results. Therefore, looking back at operational performance over 20 years reveals how different company strategies have panned out.
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In the investment world, before MiFID II, essentially every institution talked to every broker, and the whole, professional market could see every research note and the forecasts in detail. This was the ‘Age of Consensus’. Everyone had the same information (well, everyone except retail investors), and this transparency helped share price formation and liquidity
Companies: TIME AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT CMH CSH DNL GTLY GDR KOOV MCL OXB RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VTA W7L
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on R.E.A. Holdings plc. We currently have 78 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Nichol’s YE update is in line with guidance given in November at the time of the 9-month update. This is reassuring and a positive outcome given tier restrictions created additional challenges during the critical month of December. Overall, sales are reported to be down 19.3% to £118.7m vs our £119.4m, with OoH the principal drag. This should not overshadow another excellent year for UK Vimto packaged and further international progress. Pleasingly the company generated £6.4m of cash in the period resulting in net-cash of £47.3m (119p per share). Going into 2021, we are encouraged by management being on the front-foot re NPD/marketing and Middle-East Ramadan orders being in line. And whilst lockdown 3.0 is clearly unhelpful, Q1 is traditionally the quietest quarter. Overall, notwithstanding near-term CV19 uncertainty we expect the core Vimto business to further outperform and international sales to move ahead. For OoH the year is one of transition as management look to reset future direction given the mid-long term implications on end markets from CV19. Fundamentally, Nichols is a winner with significant growth runway, excellent cash generation credentials and a strong balance sheet which affords it optionality.
Companies: Nichols plc
Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: IUG CBP KAT APP RST DIS NICL BOKU CNIC HE1
In its key trading quarter, Distil has delivered a strong year-on-year revenue increase of 22%, despite 2020’s relatively muted Christmas and New Year festivities. This brings the cumulative year-to-date (YTD) revenue growth for the first nine months to 70%. Distil has also announced the launch of TRØVE, an innovative Botanical Vodka brand, catering to the emerging consumer trend for lower alcohol by volume (ABV) drinks but without flavour compromise. This expands and complements Distil’s brand portfolio, further underpinning future growth prospects.
Companies: Distil PLC
Cenkos Securities plc has terminated coverage of Finsbury Food Group Plc. Our previous recommendation (BUY) and forecasts can no longer be relied upon. Please contact Cenkos for further information.
Companies: Finsbury Food Group plc
Dekel Agri-Vision has announced that following significant advances made in 2020 preparing for the Round Table for the Sustainable Palm Oil (‘RSPO') certification process, it has now engaged Proforest to undertake the final RSPO pre-audit of the Company's 100%-owned, vertically integrated palm oil project at Ayenouan, Cote d'Ivoire.
Companies: Dekel Agri-Vision Plc
Carr’s trading update for the first 19 weeks of FY21 notes that trading in Agriculture was ahead of management expectations because of strong sales of supplements. This was offset by a weaker than expected performance in the Engineering division caused by continued low crude oil prices. We note that net debt (excluding leases) was 24% lower year-on-year at the end of November, reflecting close inventory control and lower commodity prices. We leave our estimates broadly unchanged and reiterate our indicative valuation of 170p/share.
Companies: Carr's Group PLC
Finsbury's AGM statement confirms that trading has remained resilient in FY21E, with the group expecting to deliver improved revenue and profitability this year. As such, with visibility improving, we are reinstating forecasts (FY21E Adj EBITDA of £26.0m). We also update our rating to Buy (from Under Review), which is driven by the group's low valuation (c7.7x FY21E P/E), planned reinstatement of the dividend (3.8% yield), and the increasing levels of FCF available to shareholders (11% FCF yield) now that the group has reached the end of a period of heavy investment.
Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange.
Companies: PMI RMM SUN BOIL ITM TRMR MLVN 88E IME ANP
MPE has provided a crop and production update for the year ended 31 December 2020. Own FFB crop, +9% y-o-y, is in line with expectations. CPO-equivalent production, +17% y-o-y, is 3% ahead of our expectations. We are upgrading FY2020E PBT by +11% and FY2021E PBT by +6% due to the strong CPO price.
Companies: M.P. Evans Group PLC
Dekel Agri-Vision has announced palm oil production figures for Q4, 2020 and the year ended 31 December 2020. The Company ended FY2020 with strong momentum following a good performance in CPO production in Q4, 2020 and with CPO prices in international markets above US$1,000/MT, as the company enters its high season period in H1, 2021.
Nichols continues to justify its premium rating, posting a strong set of interims with LFL sales growth of 12% and EPS of 7%. The core Vimto brand has continued to comfortably outperform the UK soft drinks market and International momentum remains impressive. Today’s interims are also accompanied by a small bolt-on deal of a distributor which triggers FY18 and FY19 EPS upgrades of 3%/4% respectively. The shares trade on a premium FY18 P/E of 25x which we feel is deserved given the internationally diversified nature of income and excellent track record of positive forecast momentum. Given favourable ongoing growth prospects and optionality afforded by a growing net-cash position, we feel Nichols should be a core mid-cap holding. We stay positive and argue for ST fair value towards 2100p – 27.5x FY18 EPS.
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SPR TRI
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
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Premier Foods’ FY20 results demonstrate the substantial progress the company has made over the past few years. The UK business has now grown for 11 consecutive quarters and Q121 is set to be very strong. In the UK the brands grew ahead of their categories and the innovation rate has hit a new high. A new landmark pensions agreement was signed in April, which could potentially significantly reduce the future funding requirements for Premier Foods. The recent triennial actuarial valuation delivers further credence to the pensions deal.
Companies: Premier Foods plc
Distil has reported an impressive H1 performance against a backdrop of volatility and other challenges resulting from the Covid pandemic. The company has delivered a profit before tax of £154K compared with last year’s breakeven position, driven by a sales increase of 128% to £1.9m. The period saw new product launches within the leading RedLeg brand, with more new lines to follow. Distil has increased headcount in both marketing and New Product Development (NPD) to support its future growth. Despite the success achieved in H1, considerable short-term uncertainty remains around the impact of the emerging second wave of Covid and consequent restrictions. The company therefore feels it is prudent not to provide guidance at this stage on the outturn for the full FY21 financial year.
