Morning Note – 24 April 2024

Zambeef - Interim trading update: perfect storm

Zambeef’s 2H23 broad-based recovery and strong finish to last year has come to an abrupt halt in 1H24 with yesterday’s interim trading update warning that FY24E reported earnings will be 55% below market expectations due to a perfect storm of tighter consumer spending, higher input costs, adverse currency movements, higher interest costs, an impairment and a loss from an asset held for disposal. We have reduced our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 25% to 184c from 245c for FY24E and by 32% to 202c f

Zambeef - FY23 results underline resilience of the business model

Zambeef delivered revenue, gross profit and EBITDA (Adj.) 5-15% ahead of market expectations, but it could have been an even better year except for a tough H1 and enduring input cost pressures running into H2. A higher tax charge has taken some of the shine off earnings. The excellent trading performance has been driven by a second-half broad-based recovery demand, especially in Q4. We leave our FY24E EPS (Dil. Adj.) essentially unchanged and introduce a new FY25E of 397c. Management has made go

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 07 Dec 23

7th December 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 4 Dec 2023

4th December 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje

Zambeef - FY23 trading update: A bittersweet year

There’s a certain bittersweet flavour to Zambeef’s FY23 trading update: revenue, gross profit and EBITDA (Adj.) will be 5-15% ahead of market expectations, but it could have been an even better year except for a tough H1 and enduring input cost pressures running into H2. A higher tax charge also will take some of the shine off earnings. The excellent trading performance has been driven by a second-half broad-based recovery demand, especially in Q4. We upgrade FY23E revenues by c.5% and EBIT by c

Morning Note – 30 June 2023

Zambeef - Weathering a tougher H1

Zambeef’s H1 results are as expected following its interim pre-close trading update. Soya has been a tricky product versus exceptional prior year performances, but higher maize prices, a switch to wheat in the winter and tight cost control should help to offset the pressure. Recent volatility in the Kwacha leads to an adjustment to our FX assumption which, alongside lower H1 revenue from soya, results in our FY23 revenue forecast decreasing from $329.2m to $314.2m. The resolution of Zambia’s deb

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 07 Jun 23

7th June 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Zambeef - FY23 forecasts remain unchanged despite tougher H1

Zambeef’s interim pre-close trading update reassures on the full-year outturn despite a tougher H1 due to several issues outside its control. Soya has been a tricky product this summer versus exceptional prior year performances, but higher maize prices, a switch to wheat in winter and tight cost control should help to offset the pressure. The weakness of the Kwacha versus the US dollar has impacted revenue, but the resolution of the country’s debt restructuring should reverse the currency hit. W

Shopping Trolley - finnCap Consumer quarterly sector note

Better than expected to date: The January trading update season has been better than expected, with the ratio of upgrades to downgrades running at 26:16 out of the 101 trading updates that we have analysed. It’s a surprisingly positive start to the New Year which reflects (1) realistic expectations captured in consensus forecasts, (2) consumers’ determination to enjoy Christmas and protect important areas of personal expenditure and (3) a reduction in supply as competitors exit.

Zambeef - Sowing the seeds of growth

Zambeef delivered excellent FY22 results, with revenue, EBITDA (Adj.) and reported PBT in line with our US forecasts. A strong performance from Cropping & Milling offset a decline in Retail and Cold Chain Food Products. The diversified portfolio and strength of Zambeef’s brands gives the business a welcome resilience. The new CEO, Ms. Faith Mukutu and CFO, Mr M’boo John Mumba are both internal promotions and they should be well-placed to deliver the strategy: exit low return assets and invest in

Morning Note – 11 November 2022

Shopping Trolley - finnCap Consumer quarterly sector note

Fulham Shore’s Franco Manca value-for-money brand is perfect for current market conditions in our view, despite pizza being a crowded segment. Pizza travels well, allowing the business to flex to delivery and take-out according to market conditions. The combination of high gross margins, net cash on the balance sheet and excellent FCF generation should allow it to cope with tougher market conditions AND still protect its expansion capex plans to increase EBITDA by +55% over the next three years.

Morning Note – 16 June 2022

Eagle Eye+ (EYE, House Stock at 470p) - Tesco: a new AI reference client!

FY24 trading in line with expectations

LIBERUM: The Artisanal Spirits Company* - Strong Q2 provides confidence for FY23 expectations

LIBERUM: The Artisanal Spirits Company* - Assessing the key investment and valuation dynamics

LIBERUM: The Artisanal Spirits Company: An interesting US deal

LIBERUM: The Artisanal Spirits Company: Outlook improved; massively undervalued to its inventory base

2023 guidance upgraded, and a further upgrade may be next

A strong set of Q2 23 results with booming agflation and strong margins In Q2 23, sales were up 8.6% organic like in Q1 23 thanks to the growth in the BU distribution, which was up by c. 11.5% organically while the shipping division sales were down by -11.5% due to lower volumes transported. The Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 23 was EUR33m (vs EUR29.4m expected) strongly sustained by booming results of the distribution BU with EBITDA of EUR23.1m, mirroring a 5.9% margin at the highest level of the last 5

ORSERO: coverage dropped

We have dropped our coverage of Orsero owing to internal reorganisation. Our rating, target price and estimates are therefore no longer valid.