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Colruyt has guided for FY23/24 profit to increase by at least 50% yoy. This should be driven by strong market share gains (>100bp between April and August), better balance between sales price and cost inflation, and the benefit from cost efficiency measures. The group also announced an interim dividend of €1.0 per share following the sale of Parkwind. This improvement is much stronger than expected and competitors are likely to try harder to stem the advances of Colruyt. We will raise the target
Companies: Etablissementen Franz Colruyt (COLR:EBR)Colruyt Group N.V. (COLR:BRU)
Colruyt’s FY22/23 performance was ahead of ours as well as market expectations. The group’s revenue improved 7.7% yoy to €10.82bn (+1.7% vs consensus). The company’s EPS of €1.57 was ~8% higher than street expectations. Management expects FY23/24 operating profit and net result (excluding one-offs and DATS 24) to increase significantly. Jeff Colruyt will step down as CEO from 1 July 2023. We will improve the financial estimates slightly for FY23/24.
Colruyt has upped its financial outlook for FY22/23, attributable to improved market share, greater control over operational costs, and better energy efficiency/lower increases in energy prices. Although the company might have benefitted from the troubles faced by a competitor, investor expectations had also been fairly low. Notably, Belgium remains one of the most difficult European markets and Colruyt has had a mixed track-record over the past 2-3 years. We will upgrade our financial estimates
Colruyt has announced a poor performance for H1 FY22/23: the group’s top line was slightly below but the operating profit missed our expectations by more than 20%. While the management claims to have maintained market share in Belgium, it is quite weak compared to close competitor Ahold Delhaize. No respite is likely in terms of profit margins, even in the second semester of FY22/23. Although we will trim our financial estimates, the stock’s valuation is not expensive at the current levels.
Colruyt’s FY21/22 performance was below our and the market expectations. Although the top line improved slightly (resulting in market share gains in Belgium), the profitability decline was worse than the street estimates. A tough comparable base (in retail) and inflationary headwinds (especially in H2 FY21/22) were the key reasons. The management has issued profit warning (group net income to reduce further in FY22/23) on the back of the unfavourable macroeconomic context. We will reduce our fin
Colruyt’s reported performance for FY20/21 was slightly ahead of our estimates. However, the stock price has slumped c.10% today as the numbers failed to meet street expectations, and management has anticipated a weaker earnings for the subsequent year. The company also continues to lose market share in Belgium. Although the retailer is likely to remain healthy in the coming years, we maintain our cautious stance on the stock’s valuation.
Colruyt’s H1 FY20/21 performance was slightly ahead of our estimates. While we expect the top-line momentum to continue in H2, management needs to plug the market share erosion, especially in Belgium. The recent improvement in the gross margin is also non-structural in nature, in our opinion. Although we continue to see Colruyt as a competent market leader, the stock’s valuation remains unattractive at the current levels.
Companies: Colruyt Group N.V.
Colruyt’s performance in H2 FY19/20 was below our expectations, largely due to a soft performance by the retail segment. Perhaps, investors were also spooked by 40bp erosion in the Belgian market share (vs H1 FY19/20). We believe the top line will remain under competitive pressure in the forecast years. The recent improvement in the gross margin is also unlikely to make an impactful contribution to the bottom line, in our opinion.
Colruyt has been strengthening its grip on the Belgian market by gaining market share and sustained profit margins. While this performance is expected to continue in the remainder of FY19/20, we reiterate that the top line and profitability will remain flattish. Competition is likely to increase due to the gradual revamp of traditional competitors and an encouraging start by Jumbo in Belgium.
Colruyt announced FY18/19 results in line with our estimates. The H2 performance was a bit softer as the company witnessed fluctuating promotional pressure in the retail market. We believe Colruyt will continue to make price and promotional investments to sustain the top-line momentum. The margins are likely to remain under pressure in FY19/20. We will trim our estimates but are likely to maintain the stock recommendation.
Colruyt reported strong H1 FY18/19 results with a better than expected expansion in the gross margin, supported by softer competition/promotional activity in Belgium. However, we maintain our cautious view on the company due to its expensive multiples/valuations and an expected intensification of the competition in the Belgian retail sector in the forecast years. The stock recommendation remains ‘Sell’.
Colruyt reported good FY17/18 results. However, the competitive pressure is likely to spike in the home country, largely due to sustained performance revival efforts by Ahold Delhaize and Carrefour, and the growing presence of discounter Lidl. As a result, the company’s profit margin is likely to be a bit strained in the forecast years. The stock valuation is still dear at current levels. No change in our stock recommendation.
Colruyt reported good top-line growth in FY16/17 but profitability disappointed. Reported revenue increased 3.4% (vs FY15/16: 2.9%; FY16/17 includes an additional month of sales of the disposed French foodservice business ‘Pro à Pro’). Excluding the disposed French business, top-line growth came in at 2.8% (+30bp vs our estimate), largely driven by the good performance in the retail segment (contributes c.76% to group revenue). The segment clocked 2.4% revenue growth despite an unfavourable cale
Colruyt’s H1 sales progressed by only 2.6% yoy to reach €4,655m. The Retail and Wholesale division maintained steady sales growth compared to last year (4.1% and 2.9%, respectively) but the Filling stations and other activities showed a 15.6% decline in H1 revenues. The EBITDA margin was almost stable at 8.0% but EBIT lost 20bp to 5.5% due to the underperforming Corporate business. The Belgium retailer still enjoys a strong cash situation despite a higher capex and the increase in WCR. We note,
In a challenging Belgian grocery market, Colruyt released revenues up 3% to €8.9bn. Due to the pressure on sales prices, volume growth was not fully reflected in revenue growth. Price pressure was brought about by price deflation, competition and the consumer trend towards cheaper products. The group continued to invest in employees, processes and efficiency gains. These investments and the fact that higher sales volumes were not entirely reflected in revenue growth, caused net operating expense
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