Yesterday’s shock profit warning led to a 58% fall in the share price. There is no escaping the disappointment has changed sentiment from Conviviality being regarded as a much improved business with a cogent growth and DPS angle, to one where there are now doubts. However, we feel most of the problems are self-inflicted and thus rectifiable, rather than systemic. We also feel covenant risk fears are overplayed. On our downgraded EPS and DPS forecasts the shares are trading on a FY19 P/E of 6.6x with a c.8% yield. We see the current level as an attractive entry point and stay at Buy, albeit with a new TP of 190p (from 400p) – 10x FY19 EPS.
