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06 Apr 2021
A reset... but not as we know it
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A reset... but not as we know it
Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 289 -4.6 (-0.5%) | Mkt Cap: 20,350m
- Published:
06 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Gwynn Andrew AG -
Pages:
27
The shares won''t look after themselves; what to say differently to reflect a job well done?
A lot went right in Tesco''s 2014-2020 yet from a shareholder perspective, performance was disappointing - the shares today are essentially flat from when Dave Lewis took over as CEO in September 2014. Having been in the role for 6 months, Ken Murphy, Tesco''s new CEO must be very aware that even when things are going right operationally, the shares won''t look after themselves. So what needs to be done and said for the shares to finally reflect a job well done?
Tesco should pitch itself as a predictable good citizen
It''s pretty common for an incoming CEO in food retail to ''reset the PandL'' but in this case, we see little need; performance seems solid. The shares though seem to have paid the price for a perception that the story has ''over-promised and under-delivered''. Collectively we all have to bear some responsibility, be that giddy expectations on synergies from Booker, or misunderstanding or miscommunicating capital targets. However, a new CEO offers the opportunity for a communication reset... Tesco; a predictable, good citizen with cGBP1.5bn of free cash flow?
The market is craving a consistent and definitive capital framework
Having set a capital framework steering us we thought to cash return we''ve seen Tesco move the goal posts twice and more lately, disassociate a capital target with capital return. The ''good news'' is that the bad news is out of the way; Tesco probably won''t announce a cash return on 14 April (FY results). It can however set a clear and definitive capital framework, even if the new CFO is joining in May. We think amount and timing are secondary to consistency and greater predictability.
Tesco has a better narrative than most for online - it just needs to share it more
The other big question and probable brake to the share price is online grocery. It''s ironic that the food delivery names are falling over themselves to get...