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27 Feb 2026
Company contact: as we were
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Company contact: as we were
Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 463 -8.8 (-0.4%) | Mkt Cap: 29,401m
- Published:
27 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Joyce Rob RJ -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
We have spoken to Tesco (+) (a conversation which we initiated), who are due to report FY26 results on 16th April. There was no change to guidance. Overall, we came away expecting no changes to consensus estimates.
Key takeaways:
On the UK market: Tesco pointed to January''s Kantar print, which showed market conditions had remained consistent with Nov/Dec. There was no change flagged for February in terms of the market or Tesco''s performance within it. Tesco did point to January''s Which? price survey (ask us for data), which showed Tesco''s prices were cheaper than Asda''s over the month, implying that industry competitive intensity had not picked up in 2026.
Tesco did note that 1Q27e (which has not started yet) in the UK has the toughest comp of the year due to weather. Note we already forecast 1Q27e being the lowest LFL quarter of the year in the UK.
On FCF: Tesco did note that capex had been ticking up in recent years, with potentially spend to come on electronic shelf labels in FY27e. However, we came away comfortable with our forecast of GBP 1.57mn in FY27e vs 1.50 in FY26e. Equally we came away comfortable with our estimate of GBP 1.83bn of Tesco definition FCF in FY27 (GBP 1.87bn BNPP definition FCF, flat YoY).