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14 Jan 2021
Compelling value (and 15 qs)

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Compelling value (and 15 qs)
Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 397 26.2 1.7% | Mkt Cap: 26,282m
- Published:
14 Jan 2021 -
Author:
Gwynn Andrew AG -
Pages:
10 -
Good prices for consumers, good prices for shareholders
We suspect some might dispute the claim that Tesco ''won Christmas'' in the UK (Lidl for instance reported 17.9% sales growth, most of which is LFL). Either way, +8.1% LFL is clearly very strong but should of course be seen in the context of exceptional circumstances that lifted all boats. Though the outlook is (hopefully) one of normalisation, the set-up seems strong with Tesco''s value credentials for both customers and shareholders compelling we think.
Tone on price investment remains comforting
One of the concerns on the equity thesis remains pricing pressure from the discounters and it could be argued that Tesco''s Aldi price match is lighting the touch paper to a period of deflation and margin pressure. Tesco however seems keen to sound much more conciliatory; we''re not after Aldi...we''re just trying to remove a reason not to shop with us. It''s those sorts of remarks which reaffirm our view that the UK food retail landscape is relatively benign, albeit at times noisy. If you can build confidence in that, you can build confidence in earnings and cash flow.
Online profitability remains a concern but we hope to build confidence in 2021
Online remains one of the other barriers to investing but the group thinks that over time, the gap in contribution margin can be closed. There remains a credibility gap here for the industry - in short, we need detail. However, we think 2021 will see more colour. Elsewhere Booker is feeling the challenge of wholesale and Central Europe was impacted by curfews. But these feel transitory and market weakness is normally something big players can capitalise on.
Eyes now on the share price performance post the special dividend
We''ve nudged down our estimates for Booker''s performance in particular but the change is pretty small. Eyes now on the share performance post the c50p special dividend (due around 26 February). The shares will look markedly cheaper as...