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  • 09 Jan 2025

Off the Call: Tesco 3Q25 and Christmas Trading


Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 391 -2.7 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 25,866m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Joyce Rob RJ

    • 9 pages


 

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Off the Call: Tesco 3Q25 and Christmas Trading


Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 391 -2.7 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 25,866m


  • Published: 09 Jan 2025
  • Author: Joyce Rob RJ
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? Tesco hosted a conference call post the release of their 3Q-25 and Christmas trading statement. Key takeaways from the call are that:1) they still see consumer sentiment as neutral to small positive (same as in October, but has gradually improved over last 12 months); 2) the lack of upgrade to guidance, which implies c.GBP0m profit in 2H is driven by their decisions to invest in market share growth and long term value and due to market pressures; 3) management sound confident into next year, flagging recent energy and wage cost spikes that they have contended with in recent years - our conclusion being this implies they still expect to be able to deliver profit growth despite the uncertainties faced. Overall, a confident message, focused on building long term value for shareholders. While near term upgrades feel now less likely, today''s print and message point to strong underlying momentum and sustainable growth. Key highlights of the conference call were: On the consumer - while the battle to win customers is as ferocious as ever, Tesco see overall consumer sentiment as neutral to marginally positive - similar to when they last reported in October. They have been helped by price inflation stabilisation. On the maintained guidance - which implies c.GBP0m profit growth in 2H (vs +10% in 1H). Tesco has taken the proactive decision to invest in value, availability, and customer engagement/payroll hours. This has driven more market share growth than they expected (targeting 10s of bps of share vs +78bps of share in last 3 months, per Kantar). The CFO stated that if it delivers annual profit growth (implied at 5-6% retail profit) and cash then this is key. On next year - Tesco say they go into next year confidently. They highlighted recent cost pressures (energy, wages) which they have mitigated in prior years, through cost savings and growth. This to us suggests they expect to be able to deliver in FY26 despite cost pressure from higher...

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