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20 Apr 2026
Off the call: Tesco’s post FY27 analyst meeting
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Off the call: Tesco’s post FY27 analyst meeting
Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 463 -8.8 (-0.4%) | Mkt Cap: 29,401m
- Published:
20 Apr 2026 -
Author:
Joyce Rob RJ -
Pages:
11 -
BNPP View:
Tesco hosted an analyst meeting post FY26 results with their CFO, Head of Strategy and Head of IR. Overall, a continuation of the confident tone post results last week, albeit with very little incremental that will impact numbers. The caution in the FY27 guidance is based on the unknown, rather than any consumer weakness they are currently seeing. And market share gains and profit growth remain the goal, though Tesco again acknowledged how strong 1H last year was. There was a fuller discussion of longer term drivers/potential headwinds (see below). Though there are some risks as revenue growth drivers extend beyond food, thus far Tesco''s front footed approach to price and data have seen them navigate multiple market disruptions, consistently coming out with a strengthened position at the top of the UK market.
What happened?
On guidance: Tesco recognised that the topline comparisons are harder in 1H27, and referenced some public data showing weaker consumer confidence, though as yet there was no evidence of weaker confidence in their business. However outside of that, no colour was given on what economic conditions would look like for them to hit the top/bottom of the range. The CFO again emphasised that the ambition every year is to grow profits.
On food inflation: mgmt. did not want to make a forecast. However, they did flag that several key categories are disinflationary and there is more hedging in place across the supply chain since the Ukraine invasion. We concluded that this meant the inflation impacts of the Middle East conflict would likely be longer dated (2H26 and beyond) and shallower than those seen in 2022-23 - for full discussion see Asda, oil and valuation.
On differences with the business now vs 5 years ago (when the CFO was appointed): 1) a mindset shift on market share. The business used to believe share gains were temporary and would be back the following year. The business now looks to gain share consistently; 2)...