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18 May 2026
On the road with Tesco
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On the road with Tesco
Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 447 -33.1 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 28,364m
- Published:
18 May 2026 -
Author:
Joyce Rob RJ -
Pages:
10 -
What happened?
We hosted Tesco''s CFO, Head of Strategy and Head of Investor Relations for a roadshow on the US West Coast. Investor engagement was high, with more focus on market positioning and long-term growth/profit drivers than the UK macro.
BNPP View:
On long term growth/profit drivers - this was a key focus for investors. Firstly, Tesco consistently emphasised that any initiatives must ''begin and end with food''. Media income, personalisation and AI are still early in their innings, but growing strongly and becoming increasingly relevant. Marketplace was frequently discussed, but there seem limited tangible datapoints on this yet, except the c.4/500k SKUs now on the platform.
The opportunity and natural tailwind from Tesco''s strong market share position in the UK online grocery market (36-37% share online vs c.28% share of the overall grocery market) was another key topic.
On the UK - a message consistent with the commentary post FY results. Though external data shows falling consumer confidence, Tesco are yet to see this manifest in changing behaviour. Again, as with the FY, when asked about weather, Tesco did note how good it was this time last year. For those of us in the UK, clearly it has not been as good thus far in 2026. As such this does make the +3.0% UK LFL BBerg consensus has in for 1Q27 (BNPP: +2.3%), barely slowing vs +3.1% in 4Q, look ambitious. We should get more clarity on this from Kantar/Nielsen data due next week, though from our investor conversations prior to the trip, it feels like buyside are already below the sellside on this.
On food inflation - sadly no predictions from Tesco. They did point out that several categories (coffee, cocoa, orange juice) are seeing prices fall, which limits any near term upward price pressure. On fertilizer, it was noted that the impact of any potential shortages is unlikely to be seen until 3Q/4Q.