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13 Apr 2023
Remarkably unremarkable (and 15 qs)
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Remarkably unremarkable (and 15 qs)
Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 298 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 20,941m
- Published:
13 Apr 2023 -
Author:
Gwynn Andrew AG | Schumacher Anna AS -
Pages:
9
A year unlike any other but Tesco still made guidance
In April 2022, Tesco set its sights on delivering GBP2.4-2.6bn of retail EBIT in 2022/23, today it reported GBP2,487m. To say there was a lot going on in-between is an understatement and when margins are this low, it could have gone very wrong; we estimate Tesco faced GBP5bn of cost pressure through the year. To finish the year almost perfectly in the middle of it is guidelines demonstrates a journey that is remarkable for being unremarkable. Tesco and the wider food retail industry seems to be reformed. We reiterate our Outperform, holding our 330p TP steady.
Societal pressure to keep profits pinned back
In our recent sector note, we set out the reasons why we think the food retailers are now a lot more investible and hidden in the depths of the messaging today, the tone on the consumer seemed to be a little more optimistic than it was in January. Falling cost pressure and robust wage growth seem to be taking the edge off what seemed to be a bleak outlook albeit, we must acknowledge some consumers are still having to make some very tough decisions and there is societal pressure on Tesco to do what it can to mitigate at least some of that pressure.
But in time, profit growth opportunities are there, if only with a little g
Now then does not seem to the be the point where Tesco or indeed, any other European food retailer will be sanctioning material profit upgrades, but could there be at least some profit growth, if only with a little ''g''? At the net income level, we doubt it; a higher tax rate is a headwind in 2023/24 but thinking further out as societal pressure to grow earnings eases, Tesco is again talking about opportunities from media income, even if the group is still reluctant to put figures to it.
Cutting forecasts for higher tax rate
We leave our EBIT forecasts mostly unchanged and think the group can do a touch better than its guidance of broadly holding retail EBIT flat in...