Catching up following H1 results Following AB Foods'' H1 results last week we have caught up again with management and published new forecasts, as well as 15 suggested questions for management. We lower our target price to 2500p (from 2575p): still suggesting some upside but preferring catch-up trades elsewhere. Playing catch-up on forecasts As flagged last week, the company is repaying GBP 121m of furlough support and this is the main reason for our forecast cut. However, we also take into account the ''tens of millions'' impact of corn oil costs on Grocery profits, and the new tax rate guidance. For the full year we model divisional profits of GBP 940m, including: Grocery GBP 420m, Sugar GBP 120m and Primark GBP 209m. Our Adj EPS forecast of 60p is a touch below Visible Alpha consensus of c.62.4p. Will the catch-up keep up? Heading into H2 the main swing factor is Primark, of course. On the one hand Germany and Ireland still face trading restrictions, while England has opened up strongly (we estimate +50% LFL versus 2019 levels in the first two weeks since lockdown). We assume this fades to +15% during May and then in line with 2019 for the rest of the financial year. Our monthly sales forecasts are shown inside. Bought in gross margins should be fairly flat in H2, with currency gains to follow in FY22 albeit partly tempered by freight cost rises. Not our preferred catch-up trade We model Primark to generate around GBP 1bn EBIT in FY Sep-22, despite assuming that neither sales densities nor margins fully match 2019 levels. Sugar should also make good progress, with higher UK contract prices and Vivergo start-up costs dropping away. We remain ahead of consensus for FY Sep-22 (c.146p vs Visible Alpha consensus c.136p) but with the stock trading on CY21 P/E of c.27x and CY22 P/E c.15x we maintain our Neutral rating. Our preferred re-opening pick remains Marks and Spencer (+).