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  • 08 Nov 2022

Strong Bason which to build (and 15 questions)


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON) | 1,963 549.6 1.4% | Mkt Cap: 14,051m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Okines Warwick WO | Muir-Sands Charlie CMS

    • 9 pages


 

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Strong Bason which to build (and 15 questions)


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON) | 1,963 549.6 1.4% | Mkt Cap: 14,051m


  • Published: 08 Nov 2022
  • Author: Okines Warwick WO | Muir-Sands Charlie CMS
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Solid finish to FY22 AB Foods had already made a pre-close update so there weren''t many surprises in FY22 results. However, the GBP 500m/c.5% share buyback was news. A robust net cash and pension surplus position mean that for the first time during CFO John Bason''s 24-year reign over the numbers, which comes to an end in Spring 2023, the company will buy back its shares. Management also sounded more confident about 2023, having seen a robust start to the financial year. We raise FY23 Adj EPS by 8% but stick with a selective approach in the sector and maintain our Neutral rating. Increased confidence in the year ahead Primark trading in the new year has started well and its inventories are clean. 90% of its FY23 US dollar purchases are now hedged, which limits the volatility. We raise our Primark expectations to profit GBP 663m, 7.7% margin. Sugar profits should reach their highest level since EU deregulation in 2017, underpinned by high sugar prices. Grocery faces even more inflationary cost headwinds than last year, but having held profits broadly flat in FY22 we think the risks are controllable. The year ahead will answer some major questions 2023 is a significant year for Primark. Having shown that its sales can recover from Covid in UKandI and US, it still has this to prove in Continental Europe, including solving its problems in Germany. Its click and collect trial will provide evidence about how far its omnichannel journey can go, and increasing its US store base from 10 to 23 in a year will shed light on how realistic its 2026 ambition of 60 is. A Christmas jumper? In the near term the focus is likely to remain on Primark, with trading updates due in December and January. We expect mid-single digit like for like growth, supported by price rises. However, we remain on the sidelines, preferring Inditex and Next in the apparel sub-sector, whose omnichannel models offer more upside, in our view, and whose robust financials also protect on...

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