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04 Jul 2019
Investec - AB Foods (Q3 trading, on track

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Investec - AB Foods (Q3 trading, on track
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON) | 2,181 -109.1 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 15,613m
- Published:
04 Jul 2019 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Management’s outlook for the full year remains unchanged. Whilst trading has been soft at Primark over May, the exit rate improved in June and the outlook for margins in H2 feels more bullish with better buying now expected to offset FX. Elsewhere, the sugar business shows further signs of stabilisation. We expect no changes to market forecasts today.
The details: Primark
YTD sales +4% (cc) (H1: +4.4%) which was offset by LfL “declines”. No discrete LfL number has been disclosed for Q3, but we know that H1 LfLs were -1.5% and the consensus expectations was for LfLs of c. -2% in Q3 (comparatives were c. 150bps easier).
Within the UK, total sales growth continued, although LfLs have been held back owing to unseasonable weather in May (but with an improving exit rate in June). For reference, LfLs in H1 were +0.6% (comparatives eased slightly over the period).
The picture has been similar in Europe, with unseasonable weather affecting trading in May and recovering strongly in June. Performance was once again soft in Germany, but strong in Italy and Spain. No discrete LfL number has been disclosed for Europe, but for reference LfLs were -3.2% at H1.
The US delivered “encouraging” LfL growth.
Margins in H2 (at Primark) are still expected to be down (owing to FX) following H1’s strong performance, +190bps. At the interims, full year guidance for EBIT margins was to be “a little ahead”, however, owing to a higher offset from better buying the margin outlook appears more bullish and full year operating margins are now “expected to increase”.
As flagged at the interims, retail selling space is expected to increase by 950,000 sq ft this year, adding c.6.1% of selling space this year. Space added YTD has been 800,000 sq ft, so the full year target remains in range.
The details: Sugar, Grocery, Agriculture, Ingredients
Against easier comparatives, Sugar Q3 sales appear to be stabilising and are now flat versus H1’s -11% following the reduction in EU sugar prices. Management expects lower Europe wide inventories to underpin higher spot prices this year.
Elsewhere, the Grocery sales growth performance was +1% versus +3% in H1, but operating margins are expected to be ahead. Ingredients sales growth was +5% versus +5% at H1 and Agriculture growth has continued, following H1’s +8%, although margins, as flagged at H1, will be impacted by higher input and operating costs.
Valuation
Whilst we acknowledge earnings momentum is improving, the valuation on 17.6x CY19e PE, remains demanding in our view, given earnings growth forecast at just 6% (EPS 3 year CAGR). TP placed under review. HOLD maintained.